[ClutchFans] Podcast - The James Harden Trade

Lunch just got a lot better. Thanks!

 

Yes!!!......Ear Candy!!!!
Thanks Clutch.......
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Cleverly disguised LOH podcast!

 

Can we get a transcript for those who can't listen? Thanks.

 

Lin only hater podcast?

Not a local attraction
Artificial superstar
Not the carrot to lure in other stars

Sorry, too long to transcribe. Maybe someone else will.

They pretty much agree on everything.

Good move, came out of left field, hating err questioning on Lin , not likely to make the playoffs.

 

Fun podcast to listen to while I was, ironically enough, on the treadmill (seriously, I was).

Some thoughts:

1. On Livingston: I agree the presence of Harden as an extra ball-handler hurt his chances. Other factors may be (1) the extra cap room created by the trade (now at $7.8M after waiving Livingston) means that his partially guaranteed deal doesn't really give them much extra salary-eating options, (2) all else being equal, you'd rather not have a player on the roster who is constantly wonder whether he'll get waived for cap purposes for much of the year.

2. With Cole Aldrich's contract option declined, the Rockets now have $11.8M in expiring contracts (or ones with non-guaranteed 2013/14 money) in Delfino, Douglas, Cook, Aldrich, Smith and Machado in addition to their $7.8M in cap room. Combine this with the prospects that they still have (3 1st round rookies, Morris, etc.), it's till a pretty good pile of assets even after dealing away Lamb and the draft picks.

3. Interesting that Clutch noted the common threads in the 3 big acquisitions: (1) all were guys on teams with serious tax concerns, (2) all are being asked to play a bigger role than they would have on their old team. Morey really played his hand well in light of the new CBA and the new higher luxury tax.


4. Been thinking about what the Rockets can target using their "max cap room" in 2013. Dwight Howard (hard to do, even with Harden on baord-- he can get more $ from the Lakers and you need the Lakers to help you out even with that cap room) and Chris Paul (do you really want to use so much of your cap in the backcourt?) are the top unrestricted guys. The other guys, unrestricted or restricted, seem at least a tier below.


So maybe the thing to do is to get a star player with 2 years left on his deal (i.e. expiring 2014) and enter the 2014 free agent class, which may have the likes of Lebron (loooong shot, but you know, the best player in the world), Bosh, Cousins, Monroe, Wall, etc. Meanwhile, you have a little more time to figure out which of your current rookies and youngsters have what it takes to maybe achieve star status.

And guess who has 2 more years under contract that Morey has liked before:

Spoiler

 

not likely to make the playoffs? I guess that's the safe thing to say.

But before the seven game debacle of a choke job, we were aiming for 5th seed. During that losing streak, it all came down to clutch shooting and our bigs getting out rebounded by tweeners. With asik alone, we improved tremendously over camby and scola, as camby had back issues. Harden provides the clutch shooting that wasn't there with Martin(injured) and Lee(awol during that debacle).
To top things, it's the nba more terrible teams than mediocre one, the rockets can square off with any 5th seed and over. I think we'll finish 7th seed when it's all said and done.

Lin is the big unknown, I agree with that. He might not be able to lure divas but he has gotten people all over to talk rockets, so from that aspect he is already worth the contract. Now all he has to do is what lowry and dragic were doing..no pressure.

 

Maybe I missed the point -- this might have been mainly about Harden, not so much Lin -- but I'm not sure I agree with the Lin-Harden backcourt attracting other star free agents. Harden, I can see to some extent, but I don't think Lin is that type of guy, unless he produces close to the level he did in NY, which I'm not sure he will be able to in this system/on this team.
I don't think Lin will be as bad as he was in the pre-season, but even if he is decent/"good" (say 2010-Mike Conley-ish), I don't think that and his marketability would be enough to make much, if any difference to a star free agent compared to another decent/"good" PG like 2010-Mike Conley.
I guess we will have to wait and see. I just have my doubts about Lin and Harden being a great fit. If pre-season is any indicator Lin will be asked to do some things out of his comfort-zone and probably not handle the ball as much as he might like/need to be productive.
Hopefully I'll end up being wrong.

As far as taking on dead money goes, I love the concept, but unfortunately I don't think there will be a whole lot of options. I actually looked at this just the other day.
You can go down the list of bad contracts and cross of name after name and team after team. Some teams have no picks/adequate assets to offer, others aren't really in need to dump dead money for one reason or another. I found it hard to come up with even a handful of viable scenarios.

Rip Hamilton is one of the very few names that I could come up with myself. I think he might be the most realistic dump-target, so props to Bima for recognizing that himself.
One thing to consider is that unless you execute another minor trade to set a dead moeny deal up you'll have to either waive or trade one -- ideally minor salary -- player yourself.
So in the Bulls scenario a potential deal might look like this: Toney Douglas for Rip Hamilton, 2013 1st (top-18) protected.

I think Chris Duhon is a guy the Lakers will look to dump before the deadline. Problem is, the Lakers have traded away pretty much all their picks already. You could do something like Delfino for Duhon and the Lakers 2019 1st rounder with very little protection on it - turning into a second round and cash if the pick ends up falling into the protected range.

I think Ariza and Okafor could be guys that the Wizards may look to dump to be a player in next year's free agency. The thing is, taking on either guy would probably (certainly in Okafor's case) prevent the Rockets from being players themselves. Also, while the Wizards kinda have been prone to dumb transactions, would they really part with their 1st rounder to dump one or both of these guys? Because if they wouldn't, they I don't think the Rockets would have much interest, either.

I don't think there's anything with DET (Charlie V), GSW (Biedrins, Jefferson - tax concern next year), ORL (Hedo), SAC (Salmons) or MEM (tax).

FWIW, though, I looked at the past few year's to maybe get a better idea what the proper asking price in a dead money deal might look like:

Kurt Thomas -- One week prior to the draft in 2007: Kurt Thomas (1-year left - $8M), what turned out to be 2008 draft pick #24 (Serge Ibaka) and 2010 draft pick #26 (Quincy Pondexter) for what turned out to be 2009 draft pick #54 (Robert Vaden).
Mo Peterson -- Draft day deal 2010: Mo Peterson (1-year left - $6.7M) and draft pick #11 (Cole Aldrich) for draft picks #21 (Craig Brackins), #26 (Quincy Pondexter).
Jared Jeffries -- Trade deadline deal 2010: Jared Jeffries (rest of the season + 1-year $6.9M), 2012 draft pick #16 (Royce White), Jordan Hill, the rights to swap draft picks in 2011 and Larry Hughes (expiring) for Tracy McGrady (expiring).
Baron Davis -- Trade deadline deal 2011: (rest of the season + 2 years - $12M, $13M) and draft pick #8 (which ultimately won the lottery and ended up #1 pick Kyrie Irving) for Mo Williams (rest of the season + 2-years, $9.3, $8.5) and Jamario Moon (expiring).
Ben Gordon -- Draft day deal 2012: Ben Gordon (2-years - $12.4M, $13.2M) and the Pistons 2013 1st rounder (top-14 Protected in 2013 Draft, top-8 protected in 2014, top-1 protected in 2015 and Unprotected in the 2016 Draft) for Corey Maggette (1-year - $11M).

Not sure there's too much of a consensus there. I suppose you just try to take as much advantage of the desperate team as you can.

Booo!

 

has harden signed his extension yet?

 

I agree... and we do not know how Harden and Lin will perform to their new roles.

 

Hopefully Harden comes of the bench and lead second unit. Lin-Harden is not good fit, Martin was much better fit. Martin is better catch&shoot player and is not a ball stopper. Harden is not selfish player, but he is ball stopper. If Lin stands on perimeter while Harden is handling the ball, nothing good will happen.

 

Kevin Martin preseason: 16.5 PPG 0.547 FG% 0.500 3FG%
James Harden preseason: 13.5 PPG 0.286 FG% 0.250 3FG%

Not that just Martin was better fit(which was obvious in preseason), Harden been terrible since NBA finals. He has no midrange game and no right hand. Also James Harden never took more than 15 shots in one game(he did in one preseason game vs. Bulls when WB and KD was out, he went for 2-17). Martin is 21th most efficent scorer in NBA history and averaged more than 15 shots 5 times(he averaged 14.8 twice, so basically 7 times) in season. Not to mention Lamb who will turn out to be best player in this trade and pretty valuable Toronto pick.

Martin>Harden

 

Under your logic Lin will come off the bench. Harden will not come off the bench making max money. You can bet on that. I think that Harden and Lin are smart enough to know how to work together, they both have high basketball IQ. Harden and Lin can both catch and shoot if needbe, its not that hard.

 

You have the basketball knowledge of a fire hydrant.

 

Lin has to handle the ball, play pick&roll, penetrate and decide:
1. finish around the rim
2. pass out to 3PT shooter
3. pass to big for dunk

There is no other perimeter player handling the ball in that equation. That's why Lin struggled with Melo and that's why he will with Harden. Lin is not 3PT shooter to stand on perimeter and watch what other player does.

 

Harden is clearly better all around player, but he is not good fit.