Warning: As you may be able to tell from the title, I am making a (clumsy, probably) reference to the movie Inception, which means the following may refer to parts of the movie. Consider this a spoiler alert, though I don't think I'm talking about anything significant. Further warning: this post is long and convoluted. Spoiler The conventional interpretation on the recent 4 team trade is something like the following: Houston's motivation was to dump Trevor Ariza's salary (and tax) and get Courtney Lee, a cheaper player who fits a bit better with the team. In so doing, they helped New Orleans stablize the Chris Paul situation by giving them the young veteran wing the Hornets needed at the cost of Chris Paul's talented backup, Darren Collison. The shipping of Collison shows New Orleans is committed to Paul and not to the back-up plan. The coventional intepretation may or may not be true. But we know one thing: It is boring. An alternative interpretation, which may or may not be more true, but is, I think, certainly more fun, is as follows: The recent four team trade is a step in Daryl Morey's effort to plant in the Hornets front office's head the idea that they need to trade Chris Paul to the Rockets. How? Consider the following facts prior to the trade: 1. The Rockets want Chris Paul, but face a number of obstacles, including: a. New Orleans doesn't want to trade Chris Paul. b. New Orleans may not want to trade Chris Paul to the Rockets, or any other Wester Conference team (especially one located in their neighborhood). c. Houston has 2 good PGs. A logical Paul trade would have one of the PGs go back to New Orleans. But if NOH trades Paul, they probably hand the job over to Collison rather than get another PG. d. Chris Paul doesn't seem too convinced Houston is the right place for him. 2. The Rockets can't simply tell New Orleans that trading Paul or tell Paul how they'd win big with him (helluva good that iPad did with Bosh). Both Hornets and Paul would just take these statements to be self serving attempts to steal Paul, even if such statements are perfectly rational. 3. To convince Paul of the rationality of signing in Houston, what they need is time: time for the season to get under way and to prove that they have a winning roster (i.e. at least playoff pace) not just another mediocre supporting cast for Paul to carry. This would seem to be a secondary concern, however, since Paul is under contract for 2 more years and it's up to NOH where to trade him, if they trade him. 4. More to the point is finding a subtle way to plant the idea in the Hornets' head. What you need to do is sort of like going into the Hornets' dreams (but not exactly that) and convince the Hornets they came up with the idea on their own. So, here are the steps: a. Gerald Madkins' Dream The Rockets let one of their front office guys, Gerald Madkins, leave to take a job with the Honets. The Hornets know the Rockets have some unique scouting/player valuation methods, and will probably rely on the guy for some insight, particularly on Rockets players. The Rockets offer to help the Hornets keep CP by giving them their young starting SF to fill the hole the Hornets have had for years at the wing position. Gerald Madkins can testify as to how good Trevor. Madkins can also tell the Hornets the reasons why the Rockets are trading him are (i) luxury tax, (ii) Ariza had a few words with Aaron Brooks, whom the team liked even better, (iii) the Rockets have this great Budinger guy, who really needs minutes. Of course, the Rockets want something in return, but the logical price, Darren Collison, happens to play the same position as the highly talented Brooks. No matter, they'll help facilitate getting Collison elsehwere and make it into a multi-team trade. This accomplishes one obvious goal: Now if the Hornets wants to trade Paul, they probably can use a good PG as part of the package. Now who has a good PG they can spare if a CP trade? Hmmm... b. Trevor Ariza's dream Another result of the trade is that getting Ariza moves CP a step closer to the exit. How? Is it because Ariza sucks ass? No, it isn't and Ariza doesn't suck ass. He's actually a good role player (you cannot blatantly say something that makes no sense or the Hornets' subconscious will smell the BS and attack). Here's how it works: Teams don't lose superstars by not trying to improve their roster or not spending money. No, they often lose superstars by trying too hard to improve their roster and successfully acquire players they want. Remember Vince Carter in Toronto? The Raptors spent tens of millions on well-respected players like Alvin Williams and Antonio Davis, made some playoffs, and then stalled before VC wanted out. More recently, we got Chris Bosh leaving even though Colangelo spent plenty of money trying to build a supporting cast. Cleveland spent plenty of cash on everyone from Donyell Marshall to Damon Jones to Shaq, to Varejao and Anton Jamison. There are probably other examples. Teams lose their superstars by being impatient and spend all of their bullets (in the form of draft picks, cap space, MLEs, young talent, or even expiring contracts that can be used to eat salary) on players who may help them improve but doesn't quite get them into contention. They end up having a "not quite there" team locked into significant long-term deals with no ability to manuever and take that next step. So, here's what Ariza will do: He's going to be the player that James Posey was supposed to be. He's going to try his best and help the Hornets. But he's not going to make that team a championship contender. The Hornets will probably get on a 50-win pace, but will not quite match their best a few years ago and will end up with a not-quite contender team and not much room to manuever with Paul paid at the max, Okafor and Ariza locked into long-term deals, and West with 2 years left. So, the Hornets will move further into the "losing Carter/Bosh/James" territory, hopefully by midseason this year (and it would help of their ownership situation continues in limbo). c. Going one level deeper If the Hornets still don't want to give up then, their next move may be to clear some cap space for 2011 to make a run at, say, Carmelo Anthony, hoping that CP's star power will draw Anthony to New Orleans. This would mean they probably want dump Okafor, their biggest and longest contract at the trade deadline. The Rockets have expiring contracts to eat Okafor's salary and can extract something for doing so. Natural consideration: Getting some of NOH's first round picks (or right to swap picks) like they got in the Jeffries deal. NOH gets their chance to pair the superstars. If they succeed, oh well. If they fail, however, you end up with a more depleted roster (Okafor is actually useful), a b****ier CP on a shorter contract, and no picks even if you are in the lottery (either because CP gets injured, CP dogs it, or CP leaves after his contract expires). What's the logical choice then? Trade CP to Houston, get your picks back plus something else valuable to start rebuilding. In conclusion, the Ariza/Lee trade is not about Ariza or Lee, it's about getting Chris Paul. Or more specifically, making the Hornets front office think that it was their idea that Chris Paul should be traded to Houston. And you are living in Daryl Morey's dream.
This would be a great thread for Rockets-themed Inception memes. http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/inception Edit: Sorry. This would be a great thread for people to actually respond to your post as well. Interesting stuff. :grin:
Carl Herrera, that was pure genius!!! I'm crossing my fingers reality will turn out like that or close to that.
Interesting concept, the idea of trading for Paul was you had to give up AB, which they wouldn't need. Now AB for Paul makes sense without Collison.
I believe something in that nature makes sence why Ariza was moved with Collison kinda like killing 2 birds with one stone.
Question now becomes...was I really reading that or did I dream about dreaming about reading this thread?
That's what I was thinking when Collison got traded, if Paul wants out because NO isn't that good, they won't have a point guard and we have two young and talented PGs plus other young talent, expiring contracts, and possible lottery picks from NY. All the Hornets have to do is pick and choose
I assumed that Morey's plot was to show Paul how brilliant the Rockets' management is and how bright their future has to be because they were able to unload Trevor on his team.
One step further: Carmelo realizes that CP3 will be in Houston in a couple years so he decides to S&T to Houston right now just to get warmed up.
Very cool. Dream scenario for sure but well thought out none the less. Ya never know. New Rockets scheme. Diffuse Rockets brass to other teams in hopes of improving trade relations with these teams. Send CD to Denver. Melo and Paul traded to Rockets.
the whole reason for trading collison is to keep paul and show him that they dont want to trade him .. i think when paul and the GM met a few weeks b4 the trade .. they prob agreed that if collison was traded both sides woudl back off trade demands and see what happens in the upcoming season .. and i reallyyyy doubt NO will trade for a FA to be brooks and risk losing their THIRD pg in 2 yrs