Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, the Mets’ Kevin Plawecki, White Sox’s Carlos Rodon, Diamondbacks’ Archie Bradley, Cubs’ Kris Bryant, Addison Russell. Most recently, the Reds called up pitcher Michael Lorenzen. http://gradingonthecurve.com/2015/04/30/houston-astros-prospect-correa-could-help-balance-lineup/ Reading that all these guys have been called up. Would it be out of line to call up Correa?
If Marwin Gonzalez hadn't been better than expected last year I would say definitely call him up. But now I kind of want to see what Marwin can do with steady playing time. Might make for an attractive trade option later in the season when we DO call up Correa if Marwin can continue to impress.
I believe Marwin is who he is and he would bring what he'll bring no matter if there's a hot streak. That being said I believe his value to the team would limit the chance of a trade, just my opinion.
Luhnow was in the booth during last night's telecast. He said something along the lines of "The next natural progression for Carlos Correa is Triple A and that will be addressed in the coming weeks". There's room for interpretation here but I read that as him saying Correa will be promoted to AAA sometime soon. Does anyone have thoughts on how much base stealing to expect from Correa once he is on the Astros? We have three guys are tied for the league lead in stolen bases - Altuve, Springer, and Marisnick all have nine stolen bases. How much running would you expect from Correa, is it possible he would run as often and as effectively as these three? Last year Correa had 20 stolen bases and only 4 caught stealing in half of a season. This year he really seems to be ramping things up on the base paths with 8 stolen bases already and he hasn't been caught stealing.
Look--I'm as excited for Correa as every other Astros fan. But y'all have to look at our plan in the aggregate. Our plan is to build a perennial, sustainable championship contender for the next decade. We will not--nor should we--risk that goal at the expense of one playoff run, in April no less. That means letting Correa fully develop in the minors, even though he could play in the majors today. Correa will be a stud for years to come. And we are lucky to have him in our system. But he has played in less than 100 games over low A ball. He's had only 85 (!!!) at-bats in AA. He's 20 years old. He's coming off a broken fibula. As my grandfather would say, cool your damn jets. Correa could 100% play in the majors right now, so I understand the short-sighted stance of wanting to pull him up TODAY. He would be an immediate improvement over Villar. But pulling him up now would be cutting his development short, simple as that. Correa will come up in due time, before you know it. But let the kid fully develop. The worst thing we could do is stifle his potential in lieu of short term success. That's not how this team has been built.
A fact most people tend to ignore. He was signed really, REALLY young. That he has progressed through the minors like a normal prospect doesn't change this fact. Let the kid develop properly. The only way I see call-up is if the Astros become desperate at SS and are heavily in the playoff race by August with signifcant chance to enter post season. Even then, I see the Astros more likely trade for a mediocre SS at the deadline before calling him up.
A bad stint in his debut would not derail his career. When you're that glorious, nothing can hinder your 'development'. Trout was called up from double aa still a teenager. He struggled but that didn't stop his development. Now, if you said let his "development" progress naturally to AAA because it would serve us better for a future arbitration hearing, then that is perfectly fine. Why did lowerie have to get hurt. =( I didn't even start having lucid dreams about correa til that injury.
Correa is going to develop whether he is at AA, AAA or the majors. I dont see why some seem to imply that his growth would be stunted if he were playing at the major league level. Guys you hold back in the minors are guys who play poorly in the majors and lose confidence. Blowing up a guys mojo is stunting, I agree. But with Correa, I dont see this happening. Yea, his BA may drop from .353, but not into oblivion. Hell, Springer is treading the Mendoza line, should he get some needed development in AAA?
Trout did debut when he was 20. Unlike Correa, Trout did not have sit out a year due to injury. Trout played in 111 games between AA and AAA, logging 430 ABs. In contrast, Correa has played 22 games at AA, and has logged 85 at bats.
Given the lack of a clear need (team is pretty solid and we have a couple of replacements) + the fact that Lowrie is definitely coming back by mid-season + the fact that he's barely spent time at AA (much less proven himself at AAA)--combined with the fact that ~2 more months in the minors buys you a year of pre-arb time--tells me there's no reason to bring him up now. I don't think any one of the above works as a reason on its own. But added together, I say we wait until July and make a decision at that point as needed.
I suppose it depends on how you define need & solid replacements. Firstly, I think Villar is worthless. Worse than worthless actually. Marwin cant play every day. With the winning streak, yea, it looks like our needs are few if any. But dont be fooled. I do get that Correa is barely out of high A. But given how he is playing there, he doesnt have anything further to prove at AA. The jump from AA to AAA isnt that great. So that move is more tactical than anything else. Id rather see what Correa can do with Villar's time and then look at things again once Lowrie is ready.
He won't come up till late June/July at the earliest... but the point you just made really has no actual hard/fast evidence behind it.... would be circumstantial at best. It always depends on the player. Players who are good have the ability to adapt/adjust/make improvements at any level. Players who are not all there mentally, and would be crushed by an early promotion and failure, perhaps weren't all that much destined for greatness anyways. Trout failed in his first stint, went back down, came back up and dominated. This scenario could have occurred whenever his "first" callup was, whether it was at age 20 or age 21. He used that initial exposure/failure to help accelerate his adjustment process. Berkman was also similar, if you're looking for a local example. Prospect promotion is still a very inexact science... but no team should ever set arbitrary guidelines on the time players should spend in the minors. You shouldn't employ universal rules to every single player as they are all vastly different, with different levels of maturity, different physical abilities, and some who may need that exposure to get their game up to the fullest potential as fast as possible. (and for the record, I strongly believe Luhnow knows that all prospects cannot be treated the same).
You are 100% correct. There is no way to corroborate an exact science because every player is different. All I'm saying is, it's not worth the risk of potentially hurting Correa's development. Not right now. Not with only 20 games of AA under his belt, nor college experience no less. Pulling up prospects too early has certainly altered and even harmed some careers. At the same time, yes, you are 100% correct--other prospects are able to make poor performance call-ups a mere bump in the road to otherwise illustrious careers, a la Trout. Do I think pulling Correa up right now would absolutely hinder his career? No. No I do not. I've even mumbled to myself that Correa would be making plays at SS that Lowrie has botched. Regardless, I just don't think it's worth the risk to potentially harm his development given all the circumstantial facts. Not yet. Soon, but not yet.
Again, I don't expect him to be up before June/July at the earliest... I also expect him to at least go into a semblance of a "slump" at some point prior to his eventual debut... however, in a lot of cases, the risk/reward ratio rarely plays out to where its "too" risky to call up a player who's already knocking on the door and one who many expect "great" things from. The reward with his eventual call-up (and subsequent faster adjustment) is expected to far outweigh the "risk" that he gets too overwhelmed too quickly with big-league life/competition and it ruins him for good.
Why the rush to bring him up right now? This is a LONG term investment, and he's going to be the cornerstone of this franchise for the next 10-15 yrs. Yes he'll develop whatever level he's at. Some levels faster than others. However it's not the physical growth they're being cautious with, but rather the mental. You don't want to throw a ton at him at one time, which you'd be doing if you brought him up now. You don't think this kid will have all the pressure in the world on him when he arrives? Some flourish early (Trout) and others struggle (Machado). So many have the fast food mentality wanting it right now. Patience! Could he come up and kill it from the start? Always the possibility. However there's also the possibility that he could struggle, and if he struggles a lot it could really play with his confidence. They're hedging their bet by turning the fournace heat up slowly as opposed to just throwing him in the fire. If he continues to tear apart AA pitching (which more than likely he'll do) they'll move him up to AAA in about 3 weeks to a month. If he adjusts there and shows that he can handle that level of pitching i would say it's a safe bet that they would call him up in late July/August. By this time he will have been able to get a bigger body of work under his belt (60-80 gms), and during this time moving up additional levels will have helped him grow stronger with the mental aspect of the game. The idea here is that when they bring him up he's there to stay as the LAST thing they (or he) wants is having to send him back down because he really struggled (Singleton for example). Don't you think at the end if the day it's worth giving a 20 yr old kid a few months to build up his confidence (mentally and physically) so that once he's called up he'll be better equipped to thrive? They're doing the right thing.
