yep, and Villar proved that today. I'd rather send him down and bring up a Fontana or someone who is proven defensively, and see how Marwin does as an every day player. Why do you say he can't play every day? Don't be fooled by what? The winning streak? I say let's see rather than assume we have needs that haven't yet proven out. 80+ ABs means he has nothing to prove at AA? We've seen plenty of guys do great or terrible in that # of at-bats to start a season (or career)...I think we both know you can't make a smart judgment/statement from that sample. Simiilarly, there are plenty of guys who struggle at AAA after doing well at AA. Not sure how you can say there's little difference between them.
Plenty of great players struggled in their first stints. In fact, more players struggle than succeed right off the bat. Being psyched out "mentally" by a promotion or demotion doesn't really happen to the good ones... water usually finds its level, players destined for greatness usually turn out great. Do you honestly think Correa is going to be fully "mature" mentally in June/July vs. May? Do you honestly think if he struggles whenever he is called up, it has the potential to scar him for life? If it does scar him for life, doesn't it somewhat change your idea of how good a prospect he was to begin with? Again, he'll be up later this summer. Nobody is going to panic and bring him up now with AAAA Villar blowing chunks... but this whole romantic view of "lets fully develop him till he's fully developed!" is a bunch of nomenclature that has no real solid evidence, historical background, or specific applicable examples to support its validity. I will leave with most "great" players in the history of this game were fast-tracked. And a former #1 pick that has excelled at every level and spent 2-3 years in the minors is not necessarily a huge "rush" job.
That's unbelievable do you have the numbers behind that? Wasn't SS for us last year Margo / Villar / Pettite? How could that possibly be the best SS offense?
If the Astros believe Correa has the right mentality and work ethic, they should consider building on the Singleton concept - offer him $100M / 10 yrs now and see if he bites. It would be the biggest contract in history to a minor leaguer, would give him a lifetime of security, and he'd still be a free agent at age 30 when he could cash in on a huge contract if he lives up to the hype. The Astros get absolute cost certainty for a decade, and they eliminate the need to be strategic with bringing him up. They could just bring him up for a few weeks here and then, see how it goes, and then send him back down if needed. With the team actually contending for something, this is the year you start accelerating potential prospects and see who can help the team actually win this year.
Wait, Andy Pettite came out of retirement and played shortstop for the Astros? This is significant news to me...
There's gonna be a day when I'm gonna click on the Stros forum, the "Last Post" in this thread is gonna be by you or J.R., and it's gonna be a beautiful day. Got my hopes up.
Agreed. Don't think anybody would be opposed to him getting a Stanton-like contract sooner rather than later. Also, this very well could be one of those "special" seasons where you may just need to go for it. The Rays don't have much to show for all those extended years of holding back prospects. Sometimes a half season of a special player can make all the difference.
Man, that'd be crazy to see. But I'd support it. What's unbelievable is how commonplace 100MM contracts are in baseball. Like, Kyle Siegler just signed a 100MM extension, and a majority of sports fans don't even know who that is. Hell, thats what JJ Watt makes, and his contract isn't even fully guaranteed. Even Elvis Andrus is making 120MM...
The difference between Correa and players who took the money like Singleton and Altuve is that Correa has around $2-3mil in the bank already, whatever left after taxes from his signing bonus. Assuming he hasn't wasted it all, he's already set and can afford to take the normal route. If he's as sure of his own ability as prospect writers do, he'll wait until at earliest 2nd season looking like a the next Tulo to get his Trout-like extension.
Marwin was actually pretty good last year. It's just Villar sucked and brought the numbers down. I am surprised to see we had the best OPS though...
There's examples on both sides, and it doesn't matter what I think or you think. They're going the cautious route. For every example one could throw out of a phenom prospect being called up early in their career (and succeeding) there are 25 examples of other phenom's that failed to succeed at the MLB level.
Are there really? Feel free to name some specifically "ruined" by aggressive promotion primarily. Also, I said most great players do struggle early, regardless. They make adjustments, or sometimes get sent down and make adjustments. The ones that turn out great find a way. The ones that never make it have some flaws that go beyond how they were "developed". It's certainly possible to "break" a player by promoting a mentally unstable player or immature player, but from all accounts, correa has been one of the most mature and mentally strong prospects the Astros have ever had.
Yep, Marwin will be ok playing everyday until Lowrie gets back. But I could see Fontana getting brought up for Villar, or maybe a trade for a utility guy. We don't have a quality backup infielder with Marwin playing everyday. Don't see Luhnow pulling up Correa this year, absent a Singleton-type contract.
"The ones that turn out great find a way". No **** thank you for that valuable revelation. You can whine all you want on why they should bring him up now and how it won't hurt him from succeeding or not. The fact of the matter is that they ARE waiting and not rushing him.
I meant Marwin cant play every game. I assume we needed Lowrie which is why we signed him. Now, no Lowrie. The need is clear. Hasnt caused us to lose games yet though, true. If your looking at average players, yes, many have failed. Correa is not average. Far from it. I meant in terms of jumps. Most say high A to AA is a big one. AAA to the majors, certainly. AA to AAA, not as much as the previous examples. Again Correa is not "plenty of guys". I agree a strong argument can be made to wait. I am pretty sure thats what will happen in fact. But Correa may be one of those special players that can make the adjustment now. The best argument to wait is that he is not ready. What is the harm in finding out?
I'm not whining. If anything, the people advocating "don't rush him... don't ruin him... he's precious so lets wait till he's developed!" are the biggest whiners because it has no intellectual basis, and completely ignores looking at the player himself, and where his current skills are. I've already said he won't be up here before June/July at the earliest... and while that can be attributed to service time issues, it also allows him to get a sufficient amount of AA at bats, and if he's just totally dominating there, gives him a chance to get some AAA AB's. But I'm not going to lose sleep over an "early" promotion (wouldn't be that early at this point) that results in him struggling (something most players do when they're first promoted). I also don't care much about the service time stuff as I strongly believe the front office will secure these guys (springer included) for long-term deals that buy out their arbitration years and some of the potential FA years as well.
This was in response to me questioning 80 ABs at AA being enough to prove anything. And "Correa is not 'plenty of guys'" was in response to me questioning skipping AAA. It feels like you're using "Correa is good" to justify why Correa will be successful where others are not always. It's just a little too circular for my liking. Agreed that he may be one of those players. The harm in finding out is: (a) starting his arb clock early unnecessarily when he's only 20 and the team is successful (b) adding a bit of a distraction (let's be honest, that will become the main story around this team if he's called up) when the team has good chemistry and is succeeding better than they ever have (c) creating a potential roster crunch unnecessarily between Lowrie/Valbuena/Correa in 2 months or less (Correa shouldn't go back down, esp if successful, after he comes up). Again, if Lowrie was out for the season or even through September, I'd be all for this move. Because of the above conversation, I'll note that while I am for delaying, I don't put any stock in the "his confidence will get hurt if he struggles at the ML level" bit
