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How Lin has changed since Linsanity. Comparison of now vs. his Knicks days

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Nov 29, 2013.

  1. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Figured with the lull of Thanksgiving and everyone in the US shopping, I can fit in a Lin thread without having to worry about things getting out of hand, so here it is.

    I thought so far this season, Lin has played on a per-minute basis even better than with the Knicks. So I decided to look at some stat comparisons between now and his 2011-2012 Knicks season. Numbers courtesy of 82games and basketball reference

    Inside shots

    Linsanity: 49% (43% of total 2pt shots)
    Now: 74% (40% of total 2pt shots)

    I use total of 2pt shots instead of 3s because Lin's shooting a lot more assisted 3s now(see below for details). So I believe this gives a better picture of Lin's penetration ability in general. He's finishing at a ridiculous clip. This stat is likely inflated a bit by more transition layups. But even the eye test seems to support the idea that Lin's finishing very well around the basket.

    Jumpers

    Linsanity: 47 eFG% (67% of shots and assisted 27% of the time)
    Now: 53 eFG% (75% of total shots and assisted 50% of the time)

    Note: % of shots as 3 pointers for Linsanity 24%. Now, 38%.

    I don't really want to get into the whole "whether Lin should stand and shoot 3s is horrible for his game" issue that was constantly talked about constantly for over a year now. Make the stats what you will. Personally, I prefer the 2013 version of Lin myself. One where he plays off the ball more.

    Drawing Fouls

    Linsanity: 15.5% Foul Drawing Rate
    Now: 15.8% Foul Drawing Rate

    While it's true that Lin's shooting more jumpers which should negative affect his foul drawing potential, playing more with the team in the bonus should affect this positively. Overall probably a wash.

    Assists/Turnovers

    Linsanity: Assist/Bad Pass Ratio 3.3.
    Now: Assist/Bad Pass Ratio 2.3
    Ballhandling TOs: Linsanity was 66% worse than now.

    Basically Lin has basically the same amount of turnovers due to bad passing now as he did during Linsanity. The difference of course is that his role is more of a scorer now, and not looking to pass as much as he did back then. So that seems like a regression. However, Lin's cutting down on his ball handling TOs. But he's also simply playing off the ball more.

    I think this is one area where it's hard to see progression or regression. Probably about the same as he was.

    Advanced Metrics

    PER
    Linsanity: 19.9
    Now: 19.0

    WS/48
    Linsanity: .140
    Now: .170

    ORtg/DRtg
    Linsanity: 104/101
    Now: 117/107

    Make it what you will.

    Personal Conclusion

    Despite all the accusations of how the Rockets have changed Lin, I don't see it at all. To me there are basically the following changes to Lin that has been by design.

    1. He plays off the ball more. As he should when he's playing on a more talented offensive team.
    2. He's passing less, because his role is no longer that of a facilitator.

    Otherwise, he's been similar. He drives just as much. He shoots the same decent number of mid-range jumpers as a % of his shots. He's still playing a style that's turnover prone.

    But guess what? Despite playing almost the same role, Jeremy Lin is becoming more efficient than he was in NY. Here's a nugget for those of you who actually scanned this entire post. Jeremy Lin's TS% of .641 is SECOND in the NBA among players with 20+% usage rate. I'm sure everyone should know who's #1 here.
     
    2 people like this.
  2. TheJet

    TheJet Member

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    Interesting post. I've said it numerous times, but Jeremy looks like a much more complete player than he did during Linsanity. His handles have improved, his jumper is much smoother and just looks more comfortable. He's clearly worked hard to improve. He still occasionally picks up his dribble/jumps without a clear decision of where he's going with the ball, but even that seems to happen less.

    I'll be honest. I thought Linsanity was most likely a result of offensive style, media attention and a nice hot streak. Similar to when Case Keenum's NCAA records were dismissed as being the result of a system, not the player. I was on the fence when we signed Lin because I thought Les might just be buying into the hype (see Ed Reed). And the way the season started with Lin I was concerned that it might have been a mistake. However his post all star break play really changed my mind. And he's gotten better in the off season. I think he's a legit starter in this league. A future all star? Maybe. He shows flashes of high level play but I don't put him on that level yet. He's young though, time will always tell.

    So if he's a more efficient player and scorer, and he's on a better team getting wins, how is this a bad thing? I understand some people want him to be the alpha dog, but by now it should be very clear that it's not going to happen on this roster. Are the other rewards not enough? Do I even need to ask that?
     
  3. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    When you say Linsanity, do you mean that stretch of legendary play, or the whole season w the Knicks.

    Your analysis is really good and thanks for that. It tends to support when my mind thinks when I see Lin play.

    (Don't want to derail this good thread but what continues to frustrate me about Lin is that he flashes so brightly sometimes, and then turns in a dud. I suppose it speaks to my hopes or expectations of him. Lin is a lot like my golf game - sometimes, I will be just awesome and the drive is true, wedges are sharp, and puts fall in. And the next hole, I play like a one-eyed 75 year old and put up an 8.)
     
  4. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    The Knicks through the whole season. I didn't want to put an arbitrary ending point since he still played pretty well with Melo's return. And it's a very small sample size from before the start of Linsanity(8-20 shooting total before).

    True. But there are things that are sustainable and some that are not even to us regular fans. You'd expect open 3s to be hit at a decent clip. Because it has gotten better since his early days. You'd expect him to be able to get to the basket no matter what, because it has been true both with NY and here this season, and even last season when he wasn't being tentitive. His mid-range jumper disappeared last year, but overall he's been good with that from even his college days.

    I think it's definitely sustainable at a lower level than currently. But if that's the case, then that's basically what he was in NY, plus a spot up 3.
     
    #4 meh, Nov 29, 2013
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2013
  5. Chemistry

    Chemistry Member

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    The eye test suggests that he is an improved player so it's interested to see a proper statistical evaluation.

    - Can finish with left hand
    - Better ball handling
    - Better shooting and finishing both at the rim and with jumpers.

    He's certainly developed well with the Rockets. It's interesting that the one area where he hasn't progressed is in his passing and the turnovers there. But then if he is being asked to play off the ball more then that's to be expected isn't it?

    If he was playing as a true point guard and distributing/facilitating more then he would likely improve that part of his game as well because I don't think that's something that you can gain in off season training, it's only something that comes with experience on the court of making those plays and making those mistakes.

    I still think we should trade him in a package with Asik. He seems good value right now, but the 15 million balloon payment will make him more difficult to trade next year.

    Also I doubt he will be willing to re-sign to stay in a 6th man role here, he's going to want to be a starter and play with more freedom than he has here. He does seem to be on a very short leash compared to the rest of the starters.

    Give him lots of minutes till Dec 15th to push up his value as much as possible.

    We have a strong enough guard rotation with Harden/Bev/Brooks. Might as well get best value for Lin while we can.
     
  6. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    I anticipate coming off the bench as 6th man is going to inflate those TO numbers a bit.
     
  7. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Many have said this. But how so? Discounting this last game's 4 minutes(which skews his mpg downward quite a bit), Lin's MPG ranks 18th among PGs. Between George Hill and Jose Calderon.
     
  8. yummyhawtsauce

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    I think he meant a few random games where Lin did not get many minutes, most notably the 17 min game vs Dallas.
     
  9. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    If that's the case, then Lin shares the length of leash as Dwight Howard.
     
  10. TheJet

    TheJet Member

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    This is the best analogy I've heard. Probably because I play golf the same way :grin:
     
  11. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    For someone like me who watched every minute of his NY days and every minute of rockets basketball for over a decade, IMO he's regressed from the linsanity days(30 PER), but comparable to NY days overall. He's similar to the second half of last season, and my natural conclusion is he's always very good except for early last year recovering from injury.
     
  12. Whoopy

    Whoopy Member

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    He basically has to start hot. He's played well so he has been allowed to stay in for most games. But the few games he hasn't, it's pretty apparent that he's not going to see too much action.
     
  13. Whoopy

    Whoopy Member

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    I don't think he's regressed, it's more that he doesn't get to handle the ball which affects his play.
     
  14. TheJet

    TheJet Member

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    I think it's because he seems to get pulled after one or two mistakes, as opposed to other players that are allowed to play through them. I think some of that is overblown, but I've seen it happen, especially last year. McHale might be holding him to a different standard for whatever reason.

    Back in school I had a coach who would come down hard on one player more than any other of the guys on our team. The guy was a good friend of mine and a great natural athlete. At our ten year reunion I saw the coach, and in conversation mentioned it. Without missing a beat the coach said, "He needed that. He needed a push every now and again". I'm not saying that's the case with McHale/Lin, but coaches often do things that an outside observer cannot understand.
     
  15. bws

    bws Member

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    Totally disagree with you about trading Lin. Totally. Lin is great on and off the court and is well liked by his team mates and that's gold in any organization and Brooks/Bev/Harden is not better than Bev/Harden/Lin as your primary guards. Plus he has the bonus of being popular in the international market. I think Lin's facilitation game should be more refined because he has excellent court vision. One of his main assets is lifting the play of others on his team and he just isn't able to do it as much on this team for some reason as he did on the Knicks. That's the next level any good organization would stress. If he's going to be coming off the bench, let him facilitate, and I think that's what he's trying to do and why he at first doesn't look to shoot.
     
  16. roxxy

    roxxy Member

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    I think there maybe some merit to this claim. More often than not I see Harden & parsons & Dh12 get opportunities to play through there mistakes despite having poor games. With Harden & DH12 it is justifiable with parsons one can debate it isn't or it is. With Lin & bev on the other hand McHale is a lot quicker to yank them if they aren't playing or shooting well. Someone before told me that McHale is committed to Lin as 6th man or committed to Lin as a starter. But I remember from the Dallas game and games last year where as soon as Lin made a mistake he would get pulled from the game and sit entire quarters. You can use MPG and say Lin plays a lot of minutes but in reality Carlisle and Vogel have a lot more confidence in Calderon and Hill than mcHale has in Lin. Just my opinion.
     
  17. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    How is he different from Dwight Howard? Because when Dwight doesn't play well, he sits on the bench too.
     
  18. roxxy

    roxxy Member

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    Pretty much this. If I am ever at work and miss the game I go check NBA.com to see if we won and the box score. And if Lin or Bev play poorly more often than not that correlates on minutes & i see that they barely tocuhed the court. That is an indication that the caoch doesn't have 100% confidence or trust in that player. With Bev I can sort of understand it because he is just a first time starter.But I still scratch my head because McHale was hte one who made the decision to start him so he must have some confidence in him. With Lin it makes little sense becasue McHale has been coaching him for over 2 years so he should know what to expect from Jeremy. So that leads me to think that Mchale doesn't want to take the chance of leaving him in and us losing the game. Coaches keep in guys they ahve utmost confidence in despite poor play. We see that with JR Smith in NY, Manu in San Antonio etc.

    Now obviously there could be other factors such as some guys when they make mistakes they put way to much pressure on themselves which makes them more likely to make another mistake. So it could be a personality thing causing McHale to make his decision to yank them as opposed to a perception that guy is just way to inconsistent and could potentially lose us the game.
     
  19. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Since Asik stopped being a whiny baby, when did McHale not bench Howard when he's not playing up to par?
     
  20. Whoopy

    Whoopy Member

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    It really was just that one game that DHO was pulled and it was really the whole starting unit that was pulled.
     

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