I've Seen Enough - Canaan Should Start

Yup, and they still are! But this thread is not about Bev, it's about Lin vs. Canaan. So stay on topic please!

 

You know who should start?

Patrick Beverley. That's who.

This team wont go very far with either Lin or Canaan starting. So pray that Beverley comes back in time for the playoffs and plays like his normal self.

 

Dream on.

 

Why not move harden to the 1 and start Hamilton?

 

The turnover King at the 1. No thanks.

Hamilton... BWAAAAHAHAHAHA!

 

I'm going to go ahead and reply to this post from the pat beverley injury news thread here because I dont want to derail that one more than it already has been.
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=8815477&postcount=1118

That "assumption" works both ways. Logically, when I see Lin in the air looking around for a teammate after jumping due to pressure, I would assume what I'm seeing is true. But anyway, I'm sure I am right on this one. We'll just differ on that view.

A few points that I want you to clarify though.

1) What constitutes "many" of his passes? It seems you've done some research on this since you're so boldly claiming it to be true. I'll concede that I have not. But from watching the games he does not make "many" no look passes. Almost all of his passes are normal passes.

2) The issue with his jump in the air with no where to go passes is that have no positive effect on play. They don't lead to a pass to where a teammate gets an easier shot. That is unlike LeBron/Westbrook (who I consider to be two of the best at using this tactic from watching many NBA games) who make those jump passes in a way to set up their teammates for either a) an easy lay-up/dunk after drawing two defenders or b) a corner 3 pt shot.

You omitted so much of the information from the very article you referenced.

Look at the video of Steve Nash on there.

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/4SOwamlf8OE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

His jump pass comes off an aggressive drive into a fake layup that translates to an assist because he creates an easy basket opportunity.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/8OKKNFPeKGU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Look at this video of LeBron. Same sort of thing. We're not talking about Lin jumping in the air 15 ft from the basket. These are elite basketball gods jumping in the air on an aggressive play to a) draw in the entire enemy defense and b) create more time to help open up an easy basket for a teammate. Also the degree of athleticism and hang time required to make such a difficult pass is not something Lin possesses. That's not really a knock on Lin, either, LeBron is just a freak of nature.

Anyway, I don't think Lin does the things seen in the above videos with his jumps in the air. From what I see they hardly ever lead to anything meaningful happening and the amount he turns it over doing that is too high. You can agree to disagree with me, but let's not misconstrue things just because you read an article.

From that same article:

http://hoopspeak.com/2011/02/up-in-the-air-is-it-ok-for-nba-players-to-leap-before-looking/

-Lin is not Lebron James, Wade, Rondo, Westbrook, or Nash.
-The article itself references that Rondo does well using a jump pass because he possess elite awareness due to being an elite player as well as the Celtics running a formulaic offense which helps him know where his guys are at all time. I think it's a well known fact by now that the Rockets run a dynamic and ever shifting free flowing offense. That makes a jump pass less effective by default
-Sorry to tell you, but Lin does not possess the elite level of athleticism and awareness to consistently make this pass effectively. That's why most people here are upset about it.

This was just lolz. Please do try and calm down. Let's look at my original post and perhaps re-read it.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=8815451&postcount=1111

It's funny how my "OPINION" as you so dramatically put it is word for word what the article says about basketball prime being 27-32. That's a pretty well known fact even to the casual NBA fan.

What I said is more "FACT" than anything. The whole "he's young and inexperienced" argument is overplayed. 25 is closer to the basketball prime than to the beginning of a career, even if you deem the average rookie age to be about 21.

It's obvious you can still upgrade yourself and become more after 25, how much so is very debatable. I think you have diminishing returns at that point and most areas of improvement are marginal. That's why I mentioned I believe them to be incremental improvements. Sure there are your Steve Nash and Goran Dragic type exceptions, but for every player like that there are tons of middle tier PG's that simply fall off.

Regardless though, that's not even the point of what I said or why I said it. My issue with that excuse is that most players his age do not get that excuse made for them. Let's think about Lin's draft. Patrick Patterson and Eric Bledsoe off the top of my head are around the same age as Lin and I don't see anyone saying they're "young guys." He's been in the league for 4 years now. Let's cut the crap.

 

You're such a troll. Get a life.

 

it just goes to show how deep is the hatred.

 

Hey can u write my essay for my English class?

 

Canaan sucks too.

 

Yes but Canaan isn't being paid $8 mil plus a season. Lin is just robbing us blind with his contract. Almost as bad as the contract Isiah Thomas gave Jerome James.

 

A rookie....who would have guessed

 

Jeremy Lin is still a little better than Isaiah Canaan as of now but we don’t know if Canaan will overtake Lin next year and become the backup point guard instead.
Remember, last year Jeremy Lin was a little better than Patrick Beverley but after Lin stunk and played awfully during the playoffs last year, Coach Kevin McHale immediately knew that Lin does not have the mental toughness needed to excel in the NBA especially during the playoffs where the level of play is much higher. So McHale promoted Beverley to the starting point guard status and demoted Lin to the backup point guard position.
So it is up to Jeremy Lin to step up big time during the incoming playoffs. If Lin stinks again and plays horribly, Coach McHale may promote Canaan to the backup point guard status and demote Lin to the bench furthermore.

 

So envious.

 

Canaan reminds me of a young Isiah Thomas. After tonight's game I am convinced he will be a future HOF.

 

Dr34m on

 

its 5 mil, he will be gone next year.

 

sorry i know you mean 8 towards the cap but we aint gonna win it all this year.

 

Ok, for example let's actually break down his TO's over the last 10 games. If you pull down Synergy and look at the actual play by play video, here are the break downs.

Feel free to actually pull up Synergy and view the actual TO's on a video play by play. You can view the first 3 of every play sample for free.

http://www.mysynergysports.com/

Just pick the game lines, then click the relevant stat and it will pull up the last 3 plays of the type you want.

@BKN - 2 TO
Stripped while driving (No pass attempted)
Alley oop to Asik. Distance correct, slips through Asik's hands

LAC - 3 TO
TO while in the air. Lost control of ball in his hands while attempting to pass (impossible to tell where he was trying to make the pass, no look)
TO while in the air. He was clearly passing to a specific player, but picked off by help side defense.
TO while in the air. No look pass to the corner. Receiving player out of position.

76ers - 2TO
TO - Offensive foul while driving to lane. Debatable contact.
TO - Offensive foul while shooting mid-range jumper. Called on "kick out". Minimal contact. Bad ref call.

@Cha - 2TO
TO - Driving into lane and attempting no look chest pass. Al Jefferson anticipates pass and intercepts.
TO - Driving into lane. Attempts pass while in the air. Heavy contact from behind during pass, but no call.

Cleveland - 1TO
TO - Pass off the PNR to roll man. Pass is slightly high and bounces off Montejunas' hand.

Minnesota - 1TO
TO - Pass in transition from Lin at half court to TJones. Pass is behind TJones.

Utah - 5TO (only first 3/5 available)
TO - Drop off pass in anticipation. Hayward anticipates and reaches in to pick the pass.
TO - Drives into lane and passes to corner. Hayward anticipates and stretches to intercept.
TO - Drives into lane. Receives contact and tries to sell the call. No call.

Miami - 3TO
TO - Perimeter pass. Lebron accelerates and intercepts pass. Just a great play by Lebron.
TO - Driving to lane. Offensive foul. 50/50 call at best.
TO - Driving to lane. Stripped during drive. Multiple contact. No call.

Chicago - 0TO

OKC - 3TO
TO - Receiving pass. Stripped when defender reaches in and ball bounces off Lin. No call.
TO - Driving into lane towards basket. Contact during drive and loses control. No call.
TO - Driving into lane. Normal pass attempt. Anticipated by Westbrook and intercepted.

So, 20 of his last 22 TO's are viewable for free.

Of those 20 TO's, 4 are Jump passes. 1 was a miscommunication (corner not filled). 1 he had a plan, but he misread the defender positions. 1 it simply slipped out of his hands and he lost control of the ball. And 1 he was fouled heavily and didn't get a call. 2/4 of those passes are no look.

If you actually look at his *actual* passes the last 10 games, the majority are while being stripped in the lane, usually with contact that isn't called. Of his jump passes in the last 10 games, 2 of them he clearly had a plan. One was fully on him (misread), the 2nd was on the receiver (out of position). Had either pass been completed they would have led to easy high percentage shots. The other two it's impossible to say as on one he just lost control of the ball while double pumping, and the other one he was simply fouled in the air and didn't get a call.

Just a FYI.

Steve Nash career TOV% - 19.5%
Steve Nash's first 5 years (1996-2001) TOV% and APG
24.2%, 7.3APG
13.6%, 5.7APG
19.9%, 6.2APG
20.3%, 6.4APG
18.5%, 7.7APG

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nashst01.html

Nash was also a 4 year college player, and entered the league at the same age as Lin (21). You actually didn't see anything approaching "Steve Nash" until his 7th year (28 years old) when he broke out with 9.5APG.

For his "amazing" court vision, Nash was actually viewed as below average to average and turnover prone for his first 6 years in the NBA.

Next time you get worked up over Lin, go back and view the actual play by plays. Look at them closely. Judge where he is, who he's trying to pass to (if at all), and assess the level of contact and whether the pass was a misread, a "desperation" pass, or a miscommunication with the receiver.

Lin does NOT jump pass nearly as often as most posters would make it sound, and his jump passes are not nearly so bad as most posters would have you believe. The VAST majority of his TO's are actually from being directly stripped while driving into the lane versus an attempted pass.

I never said he was, just that it's FAR more common than people are saying, and the article notes that as well.

Rajon Rondo has been one of the TO leaders for his duration in the NBA. He has a career TOV% of 20.3%.

Rajon Rondo, first four years in the NBA TOV% and APG
20.5%, 5.8APG
15.7%, 6.1APG
19.2%, 9.0APG
19.3%, 9.6APG

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rondora01.html

Keep in mind that Rondo has NEVER been a driver to the rim. His TO's are almost exclusively off passes. And he could not shoot from the mid range or the perimeter for YEARS. He still has NO 3 point jump shot, and a dodgy mid range jumper.

He also had the advantage of playing with some of the best jump shooters in the NBA like Ray Allen and Paul Pierce to receive those catches. This is aside from long standing complaints about inflating his AST through playing unnecessary minutes, and the Celtics scorekeepers being "liberal" in scoring his assists.

And just because the Rockets offense is "read and react" does not mean that there are not assigned player positions during gameplay. Players are expected to spot up in the corners or to trail in specific situations. When Lin attempts a pass to the corner or the elbow, he expects it to be filled.

He doesn't attempt the pass nearly as often as portrayed, and because they are off drives to the basket they are inherently higher risk. Yes, his TOV% is still higher than preferred however his passing assists to TO ratio is well within line for a player of his experience and age. This is NOT the same as his TOV% as that is a bulk stat that does not take into consideration the *types* of TO's.

For example, if you actually pull out JUST his passes and TO's off passes, then you get these results.

Total TO's this season - 220
Passing TO's - 131
"Other" TO - 89 (strips, offensive foul, loss of handle)
Total Assists - 497
Assist/Bad Pass ratio - 3.8

http://www.82games.com/1213/12HOU4.HTM

So, let's pick 9 other PG's and see how the Assist/bad pass ratio stacks up vs Years in the NBA or playing as a pro.

Rajon Rondo - 4.1 (8th year)
Tony Parker - 6.1 (13th year)
Ricky Rubio - 3.9 (5th year in NBA, 8th year as a pro)
Damian Lillard - 3.3 (2nd year)
Chris Paul - 7.1 (9th year)
Stephen Curry - 3.6 (5th year)
Russell Westbrook - 4.4 (6th year)
Kyle Lowry - 4.3 (8th year)
Goran Dragic - 4.5 (6th year in NBA, 11th year as a pro)

So, excluding his TO's from drives and offensive fouls, in terms of passing he's right in the neighborhood of Rondo, Rubio, Curry (+- 0.3) and who's the worst? Oh right, Damian Lillard. The clearly superior passers (Parker, Paul) are in their 13th and 9th year in the NBA respectively. Dragic is in his 11th year as a pro, 6th year in the NBA.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=8815451&postcount=1111

Regardless though, that's not even the point of what I said or why I said it. My issue with that excuse is that most players his age do not get that excuse made for them. Let's think about Lin's draft. Patrick Patterson and Eric Bledsoe off the top of my head are around the same age as Lin and I don't see anyone saying they're "young guys." He's been in the league for 4 years now. Let's cut the crap.[/QUOTE]

I don't disagree that the prime is typically 27/28-32, however the studies *specifically* state that it is NOT diminishing returns until they reach the ages of 27/28-32. Lin, should he follow the norm *should* actually continue to improve at a similar pace as his earlier years UNTIL he plateau's around 27/28 (+1-2 years as PG's develop more slowly).

And it's not just about "years" in the NBA, it's minutes Played in the NBA. Last year was his first full season with a team getting regular minutes. The year before his season was basically 2 months in a lock out year.

And Patterson is still a "young" and developing player. So is Bledsoe. And since you brought up Bledsoe...

Eric Bledsoe : Passing Assists/TO - 3.5 (IE, WORSE than Lin, though really the same ballpark for all intensive purposes)

http://www.82games.com/1314/13PHO2.HTM

TO's while jump passing is memorable. It's highly visible. And Lin's "reputation" means people are "looking" for those TO's and thus find them more memorable.

It's like sitting in a park and nothing catches your eye, then someone says to you "Did you notice all the girls wearing short skirts?". Suddenly, everywhere you look there are short skirts.

The actual data (and video break downs) do not come anywhere close to supporting the idea that Lin jump passes 1-2 times per game, let alone jump passes without intent 1-2 times per game.

And the perception that his passing vision and IQ are dramatically lower, or that his TO's from passes are way out of line for his age and experience is suspect at best.

That's the problem with the "eye test". Our memory is fundamentally flawed. It rewrites itself after the fact to fit our mental narratives. And our perception of "fact" is shaped by our expectation.

If you *expect* Lin to make TO's, then they leap out at you. It's no different than an air ball being more memorable than a bounce off the rim (despite the on court impact being identical).

I stand by my original assertion, that the focus on his Jump Pass TO's is overblown. Yes, they can improve. Yes, there are silly errors. However, they're not nearly as prevalent or in aggregate as negatively impactfull as people are decrying in this thread.

And given his age and experience, not really out of line with what *should* be expected.

And that has *nothing* to do with his salary, which is simply an entirely different discussion. Lin being paid his salary does not change that he's a human being and largely subject to the learning limitations of the rest of the human race.

 

Yep, hatred of Lin can only explain people's view on Canaan. Canaan has the best upside of all the Rocket PGs, but also the lowest floor. He needs experience. Right now is not the best time to get that experience, but I can see why people would want him to start.