Where do the Rockets go from here? Will Morey go after Lebron James?

I'm going to brush on a few things in this write-up:

• Daryl Morey's awesomeness
• Why we shouldn't let Asik hit Free Agency in 2015
• The possibility of signing Lebron James in 2014

There are so many possibilities that it's impossible to predict what Rockets will do next without inside knowledge, but honestly I wonder if even Morey knows what Morey will do next. He last season was going to be a quiet one not long before news broke that the Rockets traded for Thomas Robinson, apparently that opportunity presented itself out of nowhere and Morey just jumped at it. Interestingly, there were rumors that Morey never intended to keep Thomas Robinson and simply acquired him because he thought Robinson would be easier to move if need be--a move I like to call opportunity friendly. It's because of these opportunity friendly moves that Morey was able to offer the kind of package Sam Presti was looking for in return for James Harden (although to Sam Presti's dismay Toronto's 1st round pick wasn't as high as he hoped), and the cap space needed for the signing of Dwight Howard.


A very cool illustration of the opportunity friendly moves Daryl Morey made which eventually led to the signing of Dwight Howard

My first thought of what the Rockets should do next is simple: stand pat, all we need to do from here is improve from within and we have enough to win a championship. Problem with that though is that things change, eventually Asik's contract will end in 2015 and chances are he won't re-sign knowing he will be playing second fiddle to Rocket Man. Will we still have enough to win a championship without Asik? Maybe, maybe not, regardless I don't see the sense in losing such a valuable asset for nothing in return. We might have a little cap space to sign another free agent after Asik's and Lin's contract ends in 2015 but it won't be enough for a max contract by my estimation which I will illustrate below.

The salary cap for 2014-2015 season projected to be somewhere around $62.5 million, the 2015-2016 projection should be even higher than that but sometimes the cap ends up falling below early projections (for example the early projection for 2013-2014 was $60 million but ended up being only $58.68 million).

2015-2016 salaries:
Dwight Howard $22,359,364
James Harden $15,719,219
Terrence Jones $2,489,530
Donatas Motiejunas $2,288,205
Isaiah Canaan $947,276
Total: 43,803,438
+ Chandler Parsons $8-10 million = $52-54 million

And that doesn't even include all the cap holds which could amount close to $3 million collectively, and other players who might be on our roster like Patrick Beverley who can decline his qualifying offer and seek a raise. Simply put, nothing good can come of it if we let Asik hit Free Agency in 2015 and we should trade him before it comes to that.

Now, this is the part where I start to sound like a delusional Rockets fan but bear with me. If we trade Asik and Lin during the 2014 trade deadline or 2014 off-season we will once again open the door to another great opportunity--the opportunity to sign Lebron James if he opts out and chooses Houston. I know the chances of Lebron opting out and joining the Rockets is very unlikely right now, but I think Daryl Morey will take the gamble--call it an educated guess based on Morey's history of gambling when the risk is low and the reward is high. The reason I say the risk is low is because if we don't get Lebron we will probably get another good player anyway, the 2014 Free Agent class is said to be a good one and Houston is a very desirable destination now. The reason I say the reward is high is obvious--it's Lebron James--arguably the greatest player since Michael Jordan.

Howard
Lebron (Jones and/or DMo will probably get traded if we get Lebron)
Parsons
Harden
Canaan

With Lebron, the Houston Rockets would arguably have the best team in NBA history.

The chances of Lebron signing with Houston are low for now, but the chances of Howard signing with Houston were also low a year ago. Anything is possible.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyjOy7fRzs0

 

I don't think Lebron will come to Houston, the chances are too low, but even if he doesn't come to Houston there are still other free agents available in 2014 so it's a low risk/high reward gamble--the type of gamble Morey likes to take.

Seems like a lot of people missed the point though--letting Asik walk in 2015 makes little sense.