I'll ignore the brainless ******* comment - clearly you are sensitive and can't take a little ribbing (the field day laughing comment got you that worked up? seriously?). If Arizona was willing to take that offer, Goldschmidt would already be on the Astros. You keep talking about surplus value like GMs base their decisions off this...you talk about prospects like GMs base their decisions off MLBs top 100 hot prospects list. There's so much more that goes into making a trade all the way down to personal relationships between the GMs, how much a player is beloved by their local fan base, how much the player is loved by the GM, etc. All you have to do is look at what happened with Bryce Harper and their owner vetoing the trade to us. I guarantee you the trade showed them winning "surplus value". I have no idea what Arizona thinks of JBB so I can't comment on that - I guarantee they have a different opinion with their multi million dollar scouting team that the guys running Fangraphs on $20 tips. What I can comment on is Goldschmidt is the best home grown player the Diamondbacks have ever had - whatever team trades for him will likely have to overpay a bit IMO for them to actually move him. Imagine if we had moved Bagwell in his prime for JBB and Reed (who is worthless IMO but that's another argument)?
CJ Cron just got released - he seems like a cheap DH option if Tampa thought paying $2-$3MM was too much for him. 30 HRs and 0.800 OPS last year.
I was just giving it back to you brother. Don’t be so sensitive. Of course there are tons of things that go into potential trades that GM base their decisions off of, but you and I have no way of knowing those details. So things like surplus value and prospect rankings are the best proxies we can come up with, otherwise there’s really no basis for discussion. If it’s your opinion that Arizona’s GM will reject fair offers based on sentimentality, ok, but I really don’t think executives of businesses valued over $1B operate like that. But that’s a difference in opinion that it doesn’t make sense to debate. If Houston was rebuilding during Bagwells prime, and they traded him during the last year of his contract for an MLB Top 75 pitching prospect and a busted 25 year old former MLB Top 25 1B prospect, I would have been ok with it. But I value long term winning over sentiment.
Reviewing Houston’s 5 year outlook, I think we could see some surprise spending. Current 2019 payroll is $130-140M, depending on arbitration outcomes. Without any outside additions, and making some broad assumptions about future performance of prospects, 5 year payroll and WAR estimates look like this: 2019: $138M/48 fWAR 2020: $120M/47 fWAR 2021: $100M/50 fWAR 2022: $90M/45 fWAR 2023: $90M/35 fWAR Houston can probably afford to take on 3 sizable long term contracts over the next few years. I’m thinking they extend Bregman, and between now and 2022 they add a big pitching contract and and big outfielder contract. Doing all that would get payroll consistently in the $160-180M range, and keep the team competitive for the foreseeable future. With that in mind I wouldn’t be shocked to see Houston involved with Bryce Harper.
Here we go, this is what I'd currently do: Use Kyle Tucker as the centerpiece for either Kluber or Thor. Use Yordan Alvarez, JBB, and a few others to get Goldy. (essentially everyone on the farm EXCEPT Whitley would be fair game in order to trade for both of the above superstars). In a somewhat surprise move, sign Donaldson to a reduced 1 or 2 year deal. He gets to pump up his value for his next long-term deal, as he'd be surrounded by a potent offense and a playoff/World Series contender. He'd want to establish that he can play 3B everyday, so we would have to first get Bregman's approval to move out to LF. If he hesitates, then this is a no-go, we drop this idea. But signing Donaldson would be a relatively cheap way to add a potentially really good player, while also addressing our current need for a LFer, in a roundabout way. Sign Ramos to a 3 year deal to be our primary catcher for the foreseeable future. Rotation: JV Kluber/Thor Cole McHugh Internal candidate/James is probably traded in order to get an ace or Goldy/seat warmer until Whitley is ready Lineup: Springer - CF Altuve - 2B Bregman - LF Goldy - 1B Correa - SS Donaldson - 3B Tyler White/Yuli - DH Ramos - C Reddick - RF That's the best team in the league, and yes, it hurts to trade away much of our farm system talent, but I'm ok with that cost since we are getting a Cy Young candidate/winner and an MVP candidate in Goldy.
Not bad. But I don’t like Bregman in LF. Would rather have Cruz, McCutchen, or Brantley than Donaldson, although if Goldy doesn’t happen Donaldson might make sense at 1B. Anyway, here’s mine: Sign Bryce Harper ($360M/14yr w opt out after yr 4) and Yasmani Grandal ($64M/4yr). Trade Tucker and JBB for Thor or Kluber. Sign an upside pitcher whose market doesn’t develop (like, <$5M, Diekman, Wade Miley, Ervin Santana, etc.) to bolster the back of the rotation or lengthen the bullpen. DFA Herrmann. Lineup: CF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve RF Harper* SS Correa C Grandal* 1B Gurriel LF Reddick DH White Bench: Diaz, Stassi, Marisnick Rotation: Verlander, Cole, Kluber*, James, Miley* Bullpen: McHugh, Peacock, Devenski, Harris, Smith, Rondon, Pressly, Osuna Optioned: Stubbs, Reed, Kemp, Davis, Straw, Fisher, Armenteros, C Perez, F Valdez, Rodgers, Abreu, Guduan, Deetz DL: McCullers, Martes STACKED.
25 million per year won't even get you a call back on Harper. Tucker plus JBB isn't enough to land Syndergaard or Kluber
The hypothetical contract Id offer Harper would be $160M/4yrs to start, with an opt out after that; if he doesn’t opt out, the remaining 10 yrs would be $20M/yr. It satisfies Boras’ dream to achieve the ultimate agent trifecta of longest contract ever, highest total guaranteed contract value ever ($360M), and highest single season salary ever ($40M/yr for 1st 4 years). It gives Houston the peace of mind that Harpers post-prime years wont be an albatross. You can say that offering Harper the largest contract in history won’t get a callback, but you’re flat wrong. Tucker and JBB would be the headliners for Kluber, but I agree there’d be a couple of meaningful add-ins (Martin, Fisher, Nova, etc.).
I know my Bregman in LF is outside-the-box thinking, but I think our front office considers outside-the-box ideas, and Bregman is such a gamer and team-first guy that he'd welcome the idea. But I do admit it my armchair GM offseason is mostly wishful thinking. I'd love to see Harper in an Astros uniform, but I don't see it happening. I feel that due to our success over the last few years, we have probably increased the team's value quite a bit. I agree with Boras' claim that Harper does put your team on a national stage, and if he plays up to his immense potential, he alone can and will increase a team's value. I can't quantify it, but that's also why I'm not part of the front office, haha! But I feel like since we've already appreciated in value over the last few years, this is a calculated risk we probably don't need to take. I sure hope you're right though!
Okay. That is more plausible for Harper but I was responding to what was written. However, adding Harper at 40 million, Grandal for 16 million, and adding Syndergaard or Kluber is probably way more than the Astros have to spend. They have about 30-35 million to add salary to get back to the level they had last year at 160 million. Your moves puts them over 190 million and I don't see them getting there. I hope they do, but doubt it considering they wouldn't even throw the qualifying offer at Morton. I think Thor or Kluber will cost an additional top 100 guy along with Tucker, another top 10 guy in our system, and another top 30 guy in our system. So something like Tucker, Alvarez/James, JBB, and a lower level lottery ticket type guy. Sale had 3 years of control and required 3 top 100 guys (including number 1 prospect in baseball) and a lower level lottery ticket. I think Sale had slightly more value than Kluber and Syndergaard because Kluber is older and costs more, and Syndergaard is not as good as Sale.
I agree those moves would really stretch payroll, but signing Harper would be a “more than all in” move, and they wouldn’t do that then not adequately address catcher and the rotation. I think $180M is a more than reasonable payroll ceiling as Houston enters the back half of their current competitive window. Which would leave $30-50M to spend for 2019. Those moves put it $10-20M above that amount, so they’d either have to shed salary elsewhere (Joe Smith) or borrow from future years. If you sub Wilson Ramos for Grandal and salary dump Joe Smith, it becomes more doable. Or maybe Harpers contract comes with a big buyout after the opt out or higher AAV in the back years to make 2019-2023 more feasible.
I just don't see the Astros being the market setters with the biggest contract in MLB history. Especially when you have the Phillies saying they are about to get stupid with their spending.
