Beltre..he's done a lot, but I'll always remember him as the guy that got ejected for moving the on deck circle.
Alvarez + Martin for Goldschmidt who says no Or: Alvarez + Martin + Gurriel for Goldschidmt and Greinke
Astros say no (if I’m GM). Goldy has about $20M in surplus value; I think Alvarez alone is worth that much or more. I would try to do Bukauskas and Reed for Goldy. Houston isn’t trading Gurriel. If Greinke comes to Houston, Arizona will need to eat enough salary to make it work without Houston sending salary dumps back. Only salary dump I could see Houston trying is Joe Smith ($8M), but thats nowhere near enough to get Greinke above water.
I would do the first one...we instantly become the best offense in baseball again IMO assuming Correa rebounds. Springer/Altuve/Bregman/Goldy/Correa...
Well, I’m not saying he has a ton of value. But he is a pretty solid change of scenery candidate. He’s 2 years removed from being the consensus top 1B prospect in the game, and in that time he hit 62 HR in 250 AAA games. His stock is down based on 150 big league PA, during which he carried an unlucky .215 BABIP. He’s only 25. Does he carry the $20M in surplus value he had when he was at his prospect peak? Of course not. But is he worth $1-2M as an add-on for a team trading away their 1B? I think so.
To play 1B on MLB minimum salary while a team rebuilds. No much value. May not even be replacement level value.
We will just have to see what the return is if Goldy is traded. I just don’t think rental 1B making $14.5M carry that much surplus value, no matter how good they are. Also, I view Bukauskas as a MLB Top 75 prospect with helium. In the Fangraphs article linked below, they indicate Paxton, who has 2 years and ~$25M remaining, has ~$35M in surplus value. Lefty aces are a lot more rare than good-hitting 1B. How much surplus value do you think Goldy has, with 1 year, $15M remaining? They also indicate Sheffield is worth ~$30M as the #54 prospect in the game. If Bukauskas is ~#75, $15-20M is pretty easy to justify as his value. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/updating-the-prospects-in-the-paxton-trade/
Honestly, I think the value between Goldy and Paxton are pretty similar regardless of the surplus value stated in the article. Paxton has never been healthy...he’s 30 years old and has never topped 160 innings. Goldy isn’t “a good hitting 1B”...he’s consistently one of the best hitting 1B. How many 1B have had four consecutive 5.0+ WAR seasons? I don’t know the answer I’m just wondering...I doubt many at all. Goldy has more than double the WAR of Paxton over those four seasons and it’s because he is consistent and he stays on the field...something I’ve failed to see out of Paxton.
I’ll answer my own question...Goldschmidt has been the most valuable 1B by a good margin since 2014. He has 26.9 WAR per FanGraphs compared to Freeman, who is second, at 23.5. Additionally, to break it down further, he’s been the 5th most valuable player. In terms of just offense, he’s been the 2nd most behind Trout. So yeah...you’re selling him a bit short calling him a “good hitting” 1B. He’s a HOF type hitting 1B.
That’s fine, but you’re not really providing a valid response to my rebuttal of your criticism without putting a value on Goldschmidt, Bukauskas, and Reed. How much surplus value do you think is in an elite 1B who is making $14.5M in the last year of team control? How much surplus do you think is in in JBB? Based on that, we will be able to understand if there is logic behind your “Arizona field day laughing” comment, or if you were just being a brainless *******.
Goldschmidt has one year of serious undervalue. Greinke has three years of what could be serious overvalue. Thus, adding Greinke to the deal means that trade partner will reduce their offer.
Wasn't Ferrell drafted out of TCU and some said "He could make a quick rise/be "near immediate help" to the Astros bullpen!" Am I misremembering or what happened there?
Is our 40 man roster at 40 now? I could see Luhnow shaking some things up before Tuesday. Didn't he add Feliz to the 40 man roster at the last minute a few years ago? He sure has a knack for last minute decisions...
You are correct. There is always some talk about how recent college draftees could sail through the system and be ready come playoff time. If that happens, it is truly exceptional.
