Definitely not talking about this season for logistical reasons which one being not having someone to fill his role even though less effectively. He would only be moved to starter if he can show he would likely be an ace or No. 2 in spring.
You're describing versatility, not total impact. Last year the top starting pitcher had a 6.5 WAR. The top reliever had a 3.2 WAR. Over the course of the season, if healthy, starters pitch far more innings. So yes, even though Dev-O is awesome and versatile out of the bull-pen he won't have as big of an impact on the teams's overall success as he would as a starter.
Keuchel starts every inning he pitches with no one on base and many innings are early enough where a run or two doesn't matter. Devenski comes into most every game with runners on where a run or two is likely the difference between winning and losing.
Yep, I mentioned leverage in my post so not disagreeing that leverage matters. However sheer volume of innings typically will outweigh leverage especially if you can win game without getting into high leverage situations. On leverage, Keuchel has faced highest leverage of any Astros pitcher 5 out of his 7 starts. Having another Keuchel would reduce high leverage bullpen situations by nearly 25%. If Devenski would be an ordinary SP, he would definitely be better where he's at. If he's a Keuchel or even better, Astros would be winning the game without needing a guy like him in pen as often.
The real question here is how many innings they can get out of Devenski in a relief role, and without his arm falling off. You figure a good starter does 180-200 innings with many being low-leverage. A top reliever does 60-70, with most being high leverage innings. If Devo is at 60-70, he has the same general value as any other late inning reliever. If they can figure out how to get 100+ high impact innings out of him and retain his effectiveness (he's on pace for 100 now), then it could well be a more valuable role - both because of his impact, and because there's really no one else that can fill that role in that way (you can always find another starter, but relievers seem to thrive in consistent roles). That said, if he can be an absolute ace starter, that's a different story. 200 innings of ERA around 2 will beat anything he could do in his current role. I assume there are doubts that he could maintain this level of effectiveness as a starter though.
I think Devo will top out around 100-110 in relief. I'm guessing he could easily end up in the top 30 most valuable pitchers. I don't doubt he has a great chance to remain much more valuable than most starting pitchers.
In your opinion, can somebody realistically show themselves to be an "ace or no. 2" simply with spring training?
Spring by itself, no. Spring plus throwing 100+ innings in two preceding seasons while showing ace quality stuff, yes.
Perhaps. My only concern is that if he ends up starting and is simply "ok"... the confidence/ego issues that result from that could jeopardize his abilities to go back to where he is now. Guys like Miller and Gagne were clear-cut failed starters. So much of being an ace reliever relies on confidence and mental toughness. I think things are great where they are... and I pray the rest of the bullpen continues to step up so he doesn't get overused.
Gagne and Miller didn't/don't have three pitches that hitters are missing more than 30% of the time when they swing. He doesn't use it nearly as often as his FB and his change, but slider looks legit. The third pitch is what makes me believe he could excel as a starter. Devenski is amazing where he is at. Aces are just so valuable, and right now, Devenski probably has as good a chance at being an ace than anyone else that isn't already an ace. I'd take the risk if it was up to me as the potential reward is too huge for me to pass up. I can see argument against trying him as a SP as it is risky. Astros will even probably take that path. That said, I can't imagine that they haven't given it a lot of thought both ways. He looks like an old school video game pitcher at times.
Agreed... but that effect is optimized thanks to: 1.) Max effort being given, as he doesn't have to "save" himself (an effect that many elite relievers/failed starters benefit from). 2.) First time through order effect. With more innings, more pitches, and more exposure... tendencies develop, and patterns can appear (hence why most starters aren't effective the longer they are in games, in addition to the fatigue aspect). 3.) Hitters impatience/changed approach later in games. Some get more selective (especially in the 9th)... but others do tend to get more aggressive. In an ideal/computerized world, they'd make him a starter tomorrow... and move him back if it didn't work out... but its not an ideal world, and every promotion/demotion they make can have extended consequences. All we know now is that he's excellent in this role... and is vital to this team winning games now.
Agree with all of this except, I'd change consequences to consequences and rewards. One of these days there needs to be an Astros forum poker game. I have to say I am intrigued on what some people would risk and not risk, and how they treat the unknown.
AJ needs to make a decision and move Devenski to the closer role. Its plain and simple that he is the best and most reliable relief pitcher in this team and he also has the highest strike out rate. I can't see AJ will have any faith on Giles in the playoff if we will have a one run lead in the bottom of the 9th.
Hinch sees closer role as a lesser position than high leverage, multi-inning guy that is used when most needed. I doubt Hinch thinks so little of Devenski that he would demote him to closer.
I trust the front office in assessing Devenski's arsenal and figuring out how best to deploy it. Clearly, successful starters need three pitches they can control and get swings and misses on. Also important, every pitcher becomes less dominant their second and third time through a batting order. Perhaps the Astros' data suggests that Devo is the kind of guy that needs to face batters only once through the order. Whatever they're doing, in Devenski they've almost created a new position, the tandem starter, and he's damn good at it. If he's putting up over 100IP per year at his current effectiveness, that's not a reliever's workload. He might be the first pitcher in a movement towards more pitchers of his ilk.
