I would most certainly send Feliz out there first if we were gonna replace Fiers. Feliz also has some upside. He was a top prospect and he hasn't been given a chance to start. Maybe piggy back him and Peacock until they are stretched out, see if Peacock can maintain solid results. Don't mess with a good thing in Devo
Fiers has been the worst starting pitcher in baseball this season so far. So to work, Peacock would need to be the second worst pitcher in baseball or better going forward. I'm highly confident Peacock can at least be the second worst starting pitcher in baseball or better going forward or suck hard enough that he gets replaced quickly.
fWAR. He would be 10th worst in RA9-WAR which is WAR based on run prevention (i.e. like ERA). Basically, he's bad enough to be a negative value for team, but good enough to be bad in a lot of innings. PS. I am more a believer in FIP than ERA for time periods less than 3 years. I usually like xFIP for this short a time period, but Fiers's is not close to normal in HR rate. I never look at WHIP any more. Much prefer just looking at BB%, IFFB%, K%, HR/9, and GB% if not looking at an ERA scale stat.
I like this. I've always seen Feliz as a starter long-term. Devenski is so good at reliever, but I wonder if he'll ever have as big an impact on the game out of the bullpen as he would as a starter. Maybe not this year, but to best utilize his talents he may need to jump to starter at some point. Unless Luhnow finds a revolutionary way to use relievers, which wouldn't shock me.
You wonder if he'll ever have as big of an impact as a reliever as he would as a starter? Have you watched the games? He has been both directly and indirectly impactful. When you have a guy who can effectively relieve in any situation, that is a weapon. He can keep the Astros in a game for multiple innings. He can close. He saves the other relievers, so the bullpen is rested. He is arguably the most impactful reliever in baseball.
Most impactful starter makes more impact than most impactful reliever. While Astros won't make a big change this season with him, they may want to find out if he can provide value between best SP and best RP next season as a SP. Granted, they would likely want another elite RP next year to ease let down in pen before making a change. Keeping him in pen is a great option as well. I'm not convinced he can't be an ace, but whatever the Astros do with him long term will likely be a great option as long as they don't tie him down to save opportunities only.
Does it? Devenski would have made seven starts at this point in the season. He has directly impacted 5-6 wins. Indirectly, he has positively impacted other games. Keuchel has been dynamite this year, one of the top three starters in the league and has "only" impacted 7 wins. Devenski would have to pitching as a top five starter this season to have been more impactful to this point. He is a weapon. Use him as such, pay him as such. Keuchel will pitch one game in the Yankee series. Devenski could pitch 2 or 3.
Keuchel is not best pitcher in the game, but still likely makes an impact in more innings than Devenski. Devenski makes up for a lot of innings due to leverage. However, if Devenski is as good a starter as Keuchel has been this season, bullpen may only be needed in two games for leverage. Even then McCullers and Morton don't always leave game with much leverage left. Yankees would be ******** their pants if they faced Keuchel, McCullers, Keuchel, and Morton. Hell, they may be ******** pants anyway that Astros have best starter 3 out of 4 games.
I'm not saying that Devi can't be a good starter, but go look at his stats last season as a starter compared to as a reliever. There is a big difference. It is essentially unrealistic to expect that he would have the same level of success in a starting role as he does in his current relief role. Not only is his stuff best suited for shorter, higher leverage situations, but his mentality on the mound is as well.
4 out of 5 games were dominant based on FIP or ERA with two runs or less. Only bad start came before he was throwing his slider. I don't expect him to be as dominant per inning as he is a as reliever. However, guys with three pitches that guys can't hit tend to do quite well as starters.
The impact/effect that isn't being quantified by either traditional or advanced metrics include the increased frequency Devo is able to pitch right now (multiple games/week instead of just one), all usually being high leverage, all usually featuring him throwing max effort (as opposed to him saving something should he be having to try and go 7 innings), and all featuring him facing a lineup just once or maybe twice (if its an extra inning game). The biggest question is whether or not Devo can be as dominant over 6-7 innings every 4th day, than he is currently over his usual 2 inning/appearance every other day or every 2 days. There's also the effect of not having him available on days that Morton only goes 5, Fiers only goes 4, and Musgrove only goes 5 1/3 (or if McCullers has a patented WTF road start). Without Devo, having those 3 in the rotation would make life slightly more difficult for this bullpen than it has been thus far (and yes, I realize that Devo would likely replace Fiers... until they need another starter due to injury, etc.).
