COVID-19

marky :) · Mar 13, 2020

This thread has been a great read with my coffee this morning.

CCorn · Mar 13, 2020

Is anyone friends with a chiropractor on Facebook? I’d be interested to know their thoughts.

LosPollosHermanos · Mar 13, 2020

Spacemoth said: ↑

I live in Seattle now as a doctor (mostly an outpatient gastroenterologist, don't get your hopes up). In speaking with my parents in Houston, and reading comments on this thread, it's still painfully clear that the majority of Americans outside the coastal hot spots have no idea what's coming for them. The stats that we have out there might as well be made up. If we're not testing anyone--and we aren't--then we're not diagnosing anyone. Even the deaths can be downplayed and attributed to a case of the "severe flu", as it was in Seattle for weeks before some basic scientists here at the Fred Hutch and UW started testing samples pro bono and against the rules:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html

Because the official numbers everywhere are being suppressed by an administration that is averse to scientific data, the country will not begin noticing the effect until a.) celebrities start getting infected (which began happening last night); and b.) the entire hospital infrastructure in the country starts to get overwhelmed like it has been in Italy. In Italy right now you have non-internal medicine physicians being trained on the fly to monitor ventilators and oversee intubated patients in makeshift ICU's in the OR's, even the hallways--wherever they can hook up positive pressure ventilation (PPV). Rationing of resources is common, with greater priority being given to patients who have a greater chance of survival. In a situation like that, the mortality rate is going to be way higher than 2-3%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Because the statistics surrounding coronavirus are so muddled by the underdiagnosis of subclinical (with minimal symptom) cases, we have to rely on other statistics including deaths and what they call the "serious infection" rate. These are patients that need to be monitored in the hospital and given supplemental O2 or PPV. Right now the serious infection rate is 10%--and that includes people in the younger age brackets who will ultimately survive, but might need some help along the way to do so! When you take the 10% infection rate and realize that the number of hospital and ICU beds per capita in the USA is actually lower than that of Italy, you will begin to understand why some people are panicking and buying up all the stuff in the grocery store. We don't need a high rate of transmission; we just need enough sick people to overwhelm what paltry resources we already have over a short period of time. Based on the stats we have about a 10-11 day lag behind what is being realized in Italy so far.

The sad part of it all, from my parents and from posters here, is that people are still peddling Fox News talking points about this being a political tactic of some sort to make the administration look bad. I can't help with any of that; I just don't want people to die. The best example we have for how to handle this pandemic is in South Korea, where they were proactive about screening even people without symptoms. There, the mortality rate is lowest at 0.7%, not because they had better outcomes within their healthcare system, but rather because they diagnosed the most subclinical young people who were never going to do anything but transmit the infection onto someone else had they not been alerted to their infection status. If we take that 0.7% figure relating deaths to cases in the USA, we have 40 deaths divided by a 0.007 mortality incidence rate which equals 5700 active cases in the country. Once again this is a conservative estimate, because we have not tested many other (mostly old) people whose deaths were attributed to a severe case of the flu, or a sudden deterioration of their otherwise pervasive chronic medical illness (COPD, heart failure, cirrhosis, kidney failure, take your pick).

Deaths will continue to rise, even as the case count curve lags sadly behind, since we have so few test kits and so many barriers for patients to be tested, including the cost which is still prohibitive for most people with mild symptoms. So, before it gets bad, and for the sake of spreading the word, please be more like your friendly European Clutchfan and stay away from crowded public places. Be prepared for the storm in a reasonable fashion. Maybe there are not the thousands of cases that there are here, but I have no doubt that in Houston there are over a hundred, with that exponential curve still growing steeper by the day.
Click to expand...

The only thing that ticks me off is the lack of preparation. Anytime someone comes with something remotely related to a URI they need precautions like we do for cdiff. Went to a room the other day where the chief complaint was completely wrong and only realized later I should have had a mask on. Just puts us at risk since we're consistently on the frontlines.

generalthade_03 · Mar 13, 2020

Spacemoth said: ↑

I live in Seattle now as a doctor (mostly an outpatient gastroenterologist, don't get your hopes up). In speaking with my parents in Houston, and reading comments on this thread, it's still painfully clear that the majority of Americans outside the coastal hot spots have no idea what's coming for them. The stats that we have out there might as well be made up. If we're not testing anyone--and we aren't--then we're not diagnosing anyone. Even the deaths can be downplayed and attributed to a case of the "severe flu", as it was in Seattle for weeks before some basic scientists here at the Fred Hutch and UW started testing samples pro bono and against the rules:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html

Because the official numbers everywhere are being suppressed by an administration that is averse to scientific data, the country will not begin noticing the effect until a.) celebrities start getting infected (which began happening last night); and b.) the entire hospital infrastructure in the country starts to get overwhelmed like it has been in Italy. In Italy right now you have non-internal medicine physicians being trained on the fly to monitor ventilators and oversee intubated patients in makeshift ICU's in the OR's, even the hallways--wherever they can hook up positive pressure ventilation (PPV). Rationing of resources is common, with greater priority being given to patients who have a greater chance of survival. In a situation like that, the mortality rate is going to be way higher than 2-3%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Because the statistics surrounding coronavirus are so muddled by the underdiagnosis of subclinical (with minimal symptom) cases, we have to rely on other statistics including deaths and what they call the "serious infection" rate. These are patients that need to be monitored in the hospital and given supplemental O2 or PPV. Right now the serious infection rate is 10%--and that includes people in the younger age brackets who will ultimately survive, but might need some help along the way to do so! When you take the 10% infection rate and realize that the number of hospital and ICU beds per capita in the USA is actually lower than that of Italy, you will begin to understand why some people are panicking and buying up all the stuff in the grocery store. We don't need a high rate of transmission; we just need enough sick people to overwhelm what paltry resources we already have over a short period of time. Based on the stats we have about a 10-11 day lag behind what is being realized in Italy so far.

The sad part of it all, from my parents and from posters here, is that people are still peddling Fox News talking points about this being a political tactic of some sort to make the administration look bad. I can't help with any of that; I just don't want people to die. The best example we have for how to handle this pandemic is in South Korea, where they were proactive about screening even people without symptoms. There, the mortality rate is lowest at 0.7%, not because they had better outcomes within their healthcare system, but rather because they diagnosed the most subclinical young people who were never going to do anything but transmit the infection onto someone else had they not been alerted to their infection status. If we take that 0.7% figure relating deaths to cases in the USA, we have 40 deaths divided by a 0.007 mortality incidence rate which equals 5700 active cases in the country. Once again this is a conservative estimate, because we have not tested many other (mostly old) people whose deaths were attributed to a severe case of the flu, or a sudden deterioration of their otherwise pervasive chronic medical illness (COPD, heart failure, cirrhosis, kidney failure, take your pick).

Deaths will continue to rise, even as the case count curve lags sadly behind, since we have so few test kits and so many barriers for patients to be tested, including the cost which is still prohibitive for most people with mild symptoms. So, before it gets bad, and for the sake of spreading the word, please be more like your friendly European Clutchfan and stay away from crowded public places. Be prepared for the storm in a reasonable fashion. Maybe there are not the thousands of cases that there are here, but I have no doubt that in Houston there are over a hundred, with that exponential curve still growing steeper by the day.
Click to expand...

I live in Snohomish county and when we had that first patient that just came back from Wuhan and checked into Providence St Joseph Health hospital, I knew we were screwed. We are totally unprepared to deal with the cooties coming out of China. Taiwan and HongKong are the better examples of awareness and preparedness. They had lived through the SARS fiascos and they understood how dangerous the ChiCom can be with all their lies and secrets, so they take enormous steps to protect their own people. Taiwan has an agency dedicated to such catastrophe like this pandemic. When they first got the knowledge of this WuhanFlu way back in December, they immediately sprang into actions. They were testing everyone, restricting travels to and fro China, educating everyone on proper hygiene and giving protective supplies (masks, hand sanitizers etc..). HongKong was doing basically the same thing. Their infection rates are very low, Taiwan has less than 50 infections and 1 death, HongKong has 134 and 4 deaths. The countries that are the hardest hit have all sold their souls to the ChiCom: Italy, Iran, S Korea, their infection rates are tenfold compared to Taiwan and HongKong. I have been saying this all along, unless we learn how to deal with the ChiCom like countries that know them best, more of these pathogens will come out of that hellhole, and the next one could make this current one seems like a nosebleed.

B-Bob · Mar 13, 2020

LosPollosHermanos said: ↑

The only thing that ticks me off is the lack of preparation. Anytime someone comes with something remotely related to a URI they need precautions like we do for cdiff. Went to a room the other day where the chief complaint was completely wrong and only realized later I should have had a mask on. Just puts us at risk since we're consistently on the frontlines.
Click to expand...

God bless, seriously. Front lines is exactly right.

Have a friend who is having a tough time with cancer, and I need to go see her this weekend in an ICU. I mean, incredibly sad circumstances, but I bet that hospital is going to feel like a war garrison. (Not sure they'll even let a plebe like me in.)

Ottomaton · Mar 13, 2020

B-Bob said: ↑

I bet that hospital is going to feel like a war garrison. (Not sure they'll even let a plebe like me in.)
Click to expand...

Obviously cant speak to that hospital, but Ive been to Memorial Hermann a couple of times. They have security checkpoints where they ask your travel history and scan your temperature, and patients are only allowed two visitors per day, and visiting hours are severely curtailed. The inside of the hospital is basically a ghost town.

You might consider calling the hospital before you go, to see what specific restrictions are in effect. I imagine they haven't had time to post this stuff on their websites or make it widely known.

B-Bob · Mar 13, 2020

Ottomaton said: ↑

Obviously cant speak to that hospital, but Ive been to Memorial Hermann a couple of times. They have security checkpoints where they ask your travel history and scan your temperature, and patients are only allowed two visitors per day, and visiting hours are severely curtailed. The inside of the hospital is basically a ghost town.

You might consider calling the hospital before you go, to see what specific restrictions are in effect. I imagine they haven't had time to post this stuff on their websites or make it widely known.
Click to expand...

thank you, and not to be dramatic but, she’s gone. Unbelievable. Anyway, no hospital visit, today at least.

Ottomaton · Mar 13, 2020

B-Bob said: ↑

thank you, and not to be dramatic but, she’s gone.
Click to expand...

Condolences.

donkeypunch · Mar 13, 2020

How did a really informative thread devolve into an idiot vs the world thread?

Pro Tip: if you ignore one poster in this thread, the 6 pages become only 3.

Severe Rockets Fan · Mar 13, 2020

LOL, this thread is awesome. But for the record I think this thing is way overblown and we'll look back and think how stupid this whole buying out the toilet paper and hand sanitizer at the freaking stores was at the time. I just wanted to buy a few cans of green beans to mix in for my dog's food and the shelves were completely sold out. Ridiculous scared animals out here.

CCity Zero · Mar 13, 2020

B-Bob said: ↑

thank you, and not to be dramatic but, she’s gone. Unbelievable. Anyway, no hospital visit, today at least.
Click to expand...

Damn, so sorry for your loss.

Buck Turgidson · Mar 13, 2020

Roscoe Arbuckle said: ↑

Yeah. Sometimes a song is fun.
Click to expand...

Blake · Mar 13, 2020

Buck Turgidson said: ↑

Click to expand...

That is awesome. Is there a website with a collection of these? (Guess I could google Steven Tyler memes). Not sure which one is better as both made me crack up.

Buck Turgidson · Mar 13, 2020

...

Buck Turgidson · Mar 13, 2020

Blake said: ↑

That is awesome. Is there a website with a collection of these? (Guess I could google Steven Tyler memes). Not sure which one is better as both made me crack up.
Click to expand...

Buck Turgidson · Mar 13, 2020

B-Bob said: ↑

thank you, and not to be dramatic but, she’s gone. Unbelievable. Anyway, no hospital visit, today at least.
Click to expand...

Damn. So sorry to hear that. I'm holding out hope for 3 of mine that are quite literally recovering from surgery right as we speak.

**** I feel bad for making jokes, but honestly what can you do?

RKREBORN · Mar 13, 2020

Buck Turgidson said: ↑

Not on Facebook, but my ex gf is a yoga instructor and massage therapist.

Yeah, I don't know why I broke up with her either.
Click to expand...

Watch yourself bro...shades of annoying FFB...

Buck Turgidson · Mar 13, 2020

RKREBORN said: ↑

Watch yourself bro...shades of annoying FFB...
Click to expand...

Yep. I was just responding as I was reading, and now that I got to the end of this page I feel like a proper *******.

eta: delete that quote of mine whenever you get around to it.

CCity Zero · Mar 13, 2020

Buck Turgidson said: ↑

Damn. So sorry to hear that. I'm holding out hope for 3 of mine that are quite literally recovering from surgery right as we speak.

**** I feel bad for making jokes, but honestly what can you do?
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm worried for some family/friends with health issues too (like needed/planned procedures etc.). I'm sure most of us have something like this happening, just sucks to say the least.

CCity Zero · Mar 13, 2020

Blake said: ↑

I did. I said one thing at the end. Read the rest of it, kid. That’s what matters. I’m 42 by the way jackass

and you’ve changed my opinion completely by finding an allergy doctor who agrees with you.
Click to expand...

I gotta admit this post seriously made me laugh last night. Great reply, lol - this part especially -

"and you’ve changed my opinion completely by finding an allergy doctor who agrees with you." hahaha

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