[ClutchFans] Podcast - The James Harden Trade

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Clutch, Oct 31, 2012.

  1. jayhow92

    jayhow92 Member

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    I really like the idea of seeing if we can get a 1st rd pick out of the Bulls dumping Rip's on us. This would be a very Morey-esque move. Get a vet to potentially backup Harden as well as the Bulls' first round pick (with top-20 protection) as an asset for another move later on while the Bulls get cap relief.
     
  2. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    If you're using preseason statistics to try and prove anything, you've already lost your argument.
     
  3. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Haha... glad you like the pic. Agree that Morris and Smith were irrelevant to the team's record laast year.

    The one thing I keep hearing from analysts and advance-stats types is that what prevents the Rockets from having a .500+ record is their likely heavy reliance on youth. Young guys, even talented ones, have tended to hurt a team's record during the history of the NBA-- in "stats talk," this means they tend to have rather terrible +/- numbers even as they put up points, rebounds, etc.

    There is some basis to this observation, but I think the Rockets have a chance to overcome their youth.

    First, the Rockets are most likely going to play only 1 rookie, Terrence Jones, at least until the rest of them catch up later in the season. Second, their other projected rotation players have at least some history of success (even if not as full time, 82 game a season, 36+MPG starters) and is not being asked to reach a level that they have not reached before, but rather reach (or at least get close to) their prior level of performance but in a larger role (bigger minutes, over a longer stretch, etc.).

    I don't think the team will have too many of those "Keystone Cops" stretches that we have seen out of teams like SAC, CHA, and WAS over the last few seasons with too many clueless young guys on the court at the same time.

    Good analysis. Another example: Jordan Hill's expiring for Fisher + Dallas 1st rounder.

    The thing is, it is always hard to see where this kind of "salary dump" moves will be coming from at the beginning of the season. At this point, teams are still figuring out questions like who may or may not have a chance at rotation minutes, whether they are contending for a playoff spot or giving up on the season, who is going to be a team cancer, etc. Also, they have had all summer to figure out what to do with all of the guys they right now know they want to dump. There aren't too many perfect fits-- i.e. tax paying teams with assets that we want-- but things can show up later. I mean, even a non-tax paying team may have reasons to want to dump a salary, no? Take the Clippers, don't you see Donald Sterling giving up a 1st round pick to rid himself of Odom if he doesn't get in shape and perform later in the season?




    One more thing: I wonder whether the Rockets might use their cap room, expiring contracts and other assets (including 2 Knicks 2nd rounders) to make a "Marcus Camby"-type pick up-- i.e. a veteran on an expiring contract who can help now but won't hurt their cap situation in the summer and can in fact be traded for something valuable in a S&T if need be. In Bill Simmons' Harden podcast, Simmons and professional sports gambler Bob Vulgaris were talking about Rockets over/under win totals, Vulgaris mentioned that one factor is that the team may not be done making additions yet. Got me thinking about who they might add even as a short term help.
     
    #23 Carl Herrera, Oct 31, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2012
  4. jayhow92

    jayhow92 Member

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    Are you butthurt that all the spotlight isn't on Lin or something?
     
  5. bobrek

    bobrek Vamos Los Astros

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    What were Lin's preseason stats since that is your basis for judging Martin vs. Harden.
     
  6. CXbby

    CXbby Contributing Member

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    First off, thank you to Clutch and Bima once again for their great work, always a terrific listen. Especially while charging my phone in the car now that everywhere around here is without power.

    As for your 9 teams, I see Minnesota dropping out of the playoff chase by all star break due to their injuries, and Dallas tanking hard this year. Utah caps themselves out until they can redistribute their redundant talent concentrated in the front court.

    As for the Rockets and your analysis on them, I think many are making a cardinal mistake, and that is relying on history without examining the circumstances.

    Yes, youth has historically been hard to win with. Youth is unproven, and inconsistent. Usually when it comes to youth, it is uncertain what they will become, or if they can play at all. But this story is for a generalized broad view of youth. If you examine specifically the Rockets youth, outside of Patterson, they have all at some point experienced anywhere from success, to tremendous success, in the Nba. And even Patterson had a solid rookie year. The question for them is not what can they do, but rather can they simply replicate and expand upon what they have already done. This is in stark contrast to the circumstances of most youth. As once you have already shown you can produce at a certain level, the odds of you reaching it again and becoming that kind of player increases exponentially.

    Clutch, you mention Terrence Jones as the young guy who may make rookie mistakes, which adds up and can cost wins. Well, Terrence Jones is the only guy, because he will be the only rookie in the entire rotation. And I doubt how much damage a 15 minute bench guy can do.

    Just a quick tangent that this reminds me of. A big contributor of the 08 financial crisis was due to the mathematical models that were based on historical data breaking down. Housing prices on a nation wide basis have never fallen before, and when they finally did, the products based on these models also collapsed. What these people failed to realize was that in the face of unprecedented lending standards, and unprecedented gov policies, and unprecedented interest rates, an unprecedented outcome was imminently to follow. To hell with historical models.

    The Houston Rockets are young. The youngest, in fact. And they are also about to show everyone why historical models can be deceptive, especially to those who aren't paying attention.

    Are you paying attention?
     
  7. CXbby

    CXbby Contributing Member

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    Carl, did not see this while I was hammering away on my phone the past 20 minutes, slow swyper. Glad to have reiterated basically some of the same points. Hopefully outcome is better than Busty Morris, as I actually have some things riding on this one.
     
    #27 CXbby, Oct 31, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2012
  8. MKL

    MKL Member

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    LOL, this script written by Stephen A. Smith?

    bash Lin but love fest with the Beard. Thanks man, why to go and alienate your fans and cause unneeded team drama.

    You go into detail on how Harden and Mchale hug each other. hmmm
     
  9. mikol13

    mikol13 Contributing Member

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    Harden agrees to 5 year deal

    @WojYahooNBA: James Harden has agreed to a 5 year, $80 million deal with Houston, source tells Y!
     
  10. BimaThug

    BimaThug Contributing Member

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    Thanks, everyone, for the kinds words and constructive criticism.

    A couple of things:

    --No, we do NOT hate Jeremy Lin. In fact, we both rather like him. Do I think he's as good as Goran Dragic RIGHT NOW? No. Do I think he's as good as Kyle Lowry RIGHT NOW. Hell no. Do I think he can get significantly better, since he's only just turning 24? You bet! He's a great kid who you can't help but root for. I believe in his work ethic and his ability to get better. Clutch and I were just giving our honest opinions about Lin's expected level of play for THIS season.

    (Also, the "artificial superstar" comment is intended to mean that Jeremy Lin--for however impressive of a player he is--is NOT a true superstar at this point in his career; but the media attention he receives is that of a superstar. I think Jeremy Lin himself would agree with that assessment. It is not intended as a slight or an insult to Lin.)

    --HMMMHMM, excellent analysis of the (limited number of) teams potentially seeking cap relief this season. Yes, I had thought about that as well. But the fact remains, if even ONE team needs to dump salary, the Rockets will be near the front of a short line of teams willing and able to absorb that salary.

    --Just saw that Harden got a FIVE-year deal. Good for him. FYI, the fifth year is still "only" around $18 million or so, and Harden will just then be ENTERING his prime! This will not be a case of paying a guy in his prime on a deal with gradually increasing salary, only to see that player getting paid the most in the years when he's on the decline. Harden should get better in every single season he's on that contract, including the last one.
     
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  11. BMoney

    BMoney Contributing Member

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    Stop insulting fire hydrants!
     
  12. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Yes, some of them have extremely high basketball IQ.


    [​IMG]
     
  13. King Boo

    King Boo Member

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    Fair point. Just taking those 2 words out of context like that makes it sound a lot harsher than was meant.

    That said, Lin is getting paid the same contract as Jameer Nelson and a lesser contract than Mike Conley. Can't believe the amount of criticism Lin gets given that context.
     
  14. tzou88

    tzou88 Member

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    Look at his join date and username... what did you expect?
     
  15. johnstarks

    johnstarks Member

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    I think it's not just their lack of experience, but the fact that only Parsons and Pat are the ones on the team that were part of the rotation last year. It takes a while to develop chemistry. In comparison to other teams with a stable core of players, it's a significant deficit to overcome.

    You're right that decision-making based on retrospective statistical models alone were a big cause of how the housing collapse brought down the financial sector. But concluding that retrospective models are useless is a huge leap. Under most normal conditions, retrospective models give you a reasonable idea of the risks that different events will occur. They're limited when there are unprecedented events for which past data don't exist. But unless you think there's some unprecedented change in the NBA and how the players or the game of basketball is being played versus the past, I'm gonna go with the models and say that having a lack of experience will probably hurt the team in winning now. That said, I'm excited to see how the team grows this year and hope they do make the playoffs.
     
  16. CXbby

    CXbby Contributing Member

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    Retrospective models are not useless, you just have to pay attention to the details and not blindly follow them. There is not a sea change in the way basketball is played, that is exactly why our young players have a good chance of replicating what they have already done. My point is that the circumstances of some of our young players is not quite comparable to your typical broad stroke of youth. So don't be surprised when the results stray from the historic models as well.
     
  17. jocar

    jocar Member

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    omg shudup already
     
  18. DorianTurk

    DorianTurk Member

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    talking about preseaon? thats how you rank martin>harden? is this seriously a joke cause i literally busted out laughing
     
  19. DorianTurk

    DorianTurk Member

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    Harden is a MUCH more polished ballhandler than lin...he will help out lin since he wont have to be depended on and vice versa. what have you been watching? are you a LOF? lol
     
  20. MKL

    MKL Member

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    From the stats projection i.e Hollinger: Lin, Asik and Harden will be productive and worth their contract. However, when talking about Lin, people tend to say he is overhyped and disregard the stats projection.

    I think you're either on the "Morey train of advance stats" or you're not. Talking about how Harden is projected to be this really great player and #1 option and then in the same breath disregard the Lin stats projections kind of annoys me. You base Harden's worth of $80mil extention from advance stats.
     

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