This is why I don't want to deal Tucker. I do love Teo, but he's not the level of guy. Neither is Fisher.
It's a good question. It works for now to sign guys to shorter types of contracts -- like we did 4 years for a 30 year old Josh Reddick. I just can't imagine Morey going for the Robinson Cano style, 10 year contract at age 31.
Exactly. They're going to need replacements/upgrades on the offensive side as well... and if the callups aren't ready (Tucker still only in A ball), trading established club-controlled guys who provide a chunk of the offensive production would be slightly risky for a team trying to win now.
Tucker will be in AA later this year and he plays for the Stros by May of next year. Unless he's traded.
Projected replacements in the system: 2018: Beltran - Reed Gregerson - Hoyt/Gustave 2019: Keuchel - Martes/Archer/Quintana Morton - F Perez/Paulino Aoki - Fisher/Teoscar Gattis - Stubbs Sipp - Framber Marwin - Davis 2020: McHugh - Whitley Fiers - TBD BoR or long relief prospect (Bostick? H Perez?) Harris - Ferrell Altuve - ??? McCann - Rogers Players 3+ years away from free agency are too hard to judge, since their replacements likely aren't even in the system yet. But here's when the rest of the 25 man players reach free agency: 2021: Gurriel Reddick Springer Marisnick Peacock 2022: Giles Musgrove 2023: Feliz Devenski McCullers Correa 2024: Bregman Altuve is the one player I would be working to extend. He's the face of the franchise and a potential hall of famer. I also wouldn't mind them extending Marwin for the right price. The other core players are either likely to be a bad investment (Keuchel, Springer) or too far away to extend (Correa, McCullers, Bregman). I think suggesting they should trade away any of their major league talent this year is a little silly. Sure, if they get a ridiculous offer for any of their players they should take it. But it doesn't make sense to fill a gap by creating another. Not while this group is contending and seem to be cohesive. Trading for another pitcher with multiple years of control (like Archer or Quintana) also provides insurance against losing Keuchel after 2018. And giving up Martes and/or Tucker to get an ace is ok from the pipeline perspective, since those players' positions have long term assets in place in Houston and/or multiple other prospects who could potentially fill in the gaps.
Or he goes on the Springer track and spends the whole year at AA/AAA. Or at the very least, he goes the super 2 deadline to mid June. And all of this presumes he's dominating those levels, and they don't promote him on a set timeline, regardless of performance, like they did Reed.
Correa, Springer both spent significant time at AA. Bregman was the fastest of fast tracks. (Well, Correa would have had he not suffered the leg fracture). I'd be surprised if Tucker doesn't spend almost a calendar year at AA. He could still be up here after a small stint at AAA.
How glorious would it be for the Rangers to be sellers at the deadline and Houston acquire Darvish to help them win a World Series?
Keep in mind timetables for players are also based on need. They could afford to let everyone develop more in AA/AAA in the past because they weren't trying to win at the MLB level. We have no idea how much they'll fast-track guys going forward because now there's new priorities for the major league team. Guys like McCullers were also brought up more quickly when he became needed for a team that started out hot and was potentially competitive.
I think - and, again: this is just my opinion - that they'll use free agency much as they did this year - find older and/or less established pieces that are willing to sign shorter-term deals. Any superstars will either be developed internally or dealt for via a deep farm system. I just can't see them throwing $200MM at anyone that's not a homegrown product.
That very well may be the case - I just think it's going to be disappointing for a lot of fans. That said, besides the emotional impact and fan love (which is certainly important), paying $200MM to a home-grown 29 year old is no different than paying $200MM to a free agent 29 year old, and our guys will be entering free agency at the same general ages as everyone else.
Point being: their $200MM spending sprees are going to be on Altuve, Correa, potentially Bregman. I don't see them compromising paying those guys to chase some other $200MM free agents outside of the organization. I don't think Keuchel or Springer will get another contract here and they'll continue to be bullish about parting with high-ceiling prospects unless they get a younger, cheaper product (more Giles than Quintana).
Quintana now with a 5.60 era and a 1.40 whip after back-to-back stinkers against the Diamondbacks and Red Sox. Here's an article (Jose Quintana's numbers are down, but he's still a valuable trade chip) from a couple days ago.... https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/05/29/chicago-white-sox-jose-quintana-fantasy-baseball
