I want him as well. You can control him for four more seasons after this one. He'll cost a ton obviously.
I second this. He should be good regardless of hitting environment. That said, there is a lot of discussion on swing planes, uppercuts, and getting ball in the air these days. Typically, upper cut swings designed to get ball in the air are susceptible to four seam fastballs with some heat like Archer's. If there is a shift from chopping wood to upper cuts, Archer may be better equipped than most pitchers to handle this hitting environment. If it doesn't shift, Archer is still Archer.
They're going to want a king's ransom and rightly so. He's got 4 years of control ON TOP of this season. TB would have to be completely overwhelmed to give up the one thing that small market teams absolutely need to compete: elite talent at below-market prices. Granted, if they trade for Archer then the Astros become strong WS contenders this year BUT it also significantly deleverages the Keuchel decision in two years.
Verlander and Greinke are attractive, but they're both owed some serious $$ after this yr. Off that list I'd go with Archer as well.
I would give up those 3 for Archer without much hesitation. Assuming all those names are indeed available come July, here would be my order of preference: 1. Archer 2. Santana 3. Quintana 4. Gray 5. Cole I don't think it's realistic for Houston to take on Greinke or Verlanders contract. I think Harvey and Richards carry too much injury risk. And Hernandez is on the decline.
Probably. I would definitely do Tucker and Musgrove right now. Perez's value is tough to judge, but probably isn't worth enough not to get Archer (would definitely need someone else's opinion on him). Granted, I would try to see if they want someone or others besides Musgrove as I think 2017 value is worth more to Astros than Rays.
I'd be surprised if they were scouting-adept enough to prefer Perez over Martes, but I make that deal. Adding archer would put us on even footing with the cubs and Red Sox rotation wise in a playoff series.
This one is tough for me for a number of reasons. First, Archer is already 28 years old and despite what all the advanced stats may say; he has been pretty consistently what he is, a #2 starter. He is good for 200 innings and an era around 3.2 to 3.5. I don't think we are going to see a lot of variance one way or the other. I don't think he is going to become a long term #1 starter. So to me, Archer is very good but not great. That obviously has a lot of value, especially under his contract conditions. Also, I have viewed Tucker as the Astros third best prospect behind Martes and Perez for over a year. I have concerns about his athleticism and believe his speed will be sapped as he fills out. I don't especially like his swing either, although I am in the minority. Having said that, he is very young and we cannot overlook the progress he has made each season and especially this season. He has looked like a future plus offensive player at a corner outfield spot with the real potential to be a 4-5 WAR player for several seasons. Do you really want to trade THAT away when he can be a regular within 12-18 months? As for Franklin Perez, he has unusual command and feel for a player his age and experience. He has 3 legitimate pitches with movement and deception. His third best pitch is his fastball and it is a legitimate pitch. The issue with him is there is some scouts that believe Perez will lose some velocity on his fastball when he isn't in the tandem system and will be less effective. No one is going to give away #2 starters for free or less than market value, so the cost is going to be high. I will only add that as much as I would like another starting pitcher at the top of the rotation, I will understand if Luhnow takes a pass. Personally I would try to build a trade for Archer around Lance McCullers.
Within scouting circles Perez is overall very well thought of. I don't know that he gets quite the burn that a few other young pitchers do because he doesn't rely on a 96-98 mph fastball. However you will be far pressed to find anyone at Perez' age that has 3 pitches like Perez has. He also has the ability to really get in on the wrists of left handed hitters. His natural movement and angles are special. There is a fairly large drop off after Martes/Perez/Tucker.
Always tough to judge guys that low with publicly available information, though sounds more like your preference is Perez being higher than being that different on Tucker than most. Scouts make their money on guys lower than AA. Tucker will likely have to adjust his swing a little once in AA to handle greater velocity differences of nasty pitches. I am higher on Tucker than most prospect lists as it isn't easy hitting as well as he has with a swing, while pretty, depends on early recognition of pitches. Think Astros will get him to swing more on plane with ball so adjustments are more minor or add mechanism (besides for taking a knee) to swing to help give him more time to recognize pitch.
Correct. I still think that Tucker is a top 20 prospect, and likely a top 10 prospect if he continues to hit with power. My complaints about Tucker are on the margins, he is an extremely promising prospect and the Astros have to be very pleased with his development. His ceiling is still quite high and his floor is rapidly rising. I agree with your view of Tucker as he progresses, I just believe he will have a more difficult adjustment period than some think. As for Perez, he is a step behind Tucker when it comes to his development, but he has a lot of upside.
Quintana is starting to get back on track. He threw 8 scoreless innings tonight giving up 4 hits with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts. His era is down to 4.10 and his whip down to 1.31. He has struck out 37 in 37.1 ip this season.
Tucker is this only (maybe Fisher?) high level hitting OFin the system. Stros will need one of those really soon.
They have enough OFers. They should trade him for Quintana. Our rotation is super shaky. I would trade springer or maybe even correa if we could get a legit no.1. Maybe we could have got sale.
At being a regular starter, probably. Astros are loaded with up and down, mostly corner guys (Teoscar, Tucker the Wise, Fisher, Kemp, Laureano [though not hitting this year], and maybe Kemmer [not sure if he is even a fringe prospect]) that are useful in a an emergency, but you don't really want them out there, but may become something more or nothing at all. Granted, only guys that can play CF get hurt.
