Why would he have to improve? I like what he's doing now. And he has been consistent every year so it isn't like this year is inflated.
He'd have to improve because ever since his rookie year he's been a very mediocre player. Being consistently mediocre isn't going to get you to the playoffs very often.
Hunter is playing out of his mind this season. He won his arbitration case for 6.9 million last summer. He's probably going to get 9-10 million next year. This team sucks and will not contend for at least 3 years. This "core" that people are talking about is ridiculous. That's the kind of bs that got us in trouble in the first place. If we aren't contending, we should be in 100% rebuild mode. With Pence, Bourn and Wandy this year we finally have a chance to sell high. We made a mistake keeping Berkman and Oswalt for so long and had we traded them while their stock was high, we probably would be contending now. Realistically, Hunter is like a 3rd or 4th banana on a good team. You don't build your team around guys like that. This team is going nowhere and I assure you if its crappy again next year, he's just going to sign a FA deal somewhere else like Texas or the Philadelphia. So now would be the smartest time to trade Pence for a good package of prospects.
First of all, baseball is a team game. If you are looking for 1 player to build around, I think you've got the wrong sport. So, first of all, lets figure out what we are talking about here. You mentioned the term "selling high." I think that most gms when they evaluate pence they''re taken into account his resume: a solid all-around hitter and a scappy fielder. Meaning, a proven commodity. So this whole suckering game that supposedly, according to you, the astros should play with pence is no existent in the real world. Pence already made it to an all-star game once in 2009 and he's likely going to be one this year as well. So, if anybody would be getting suckered it be the astros if they dealt a guy like that for a couple of prospects. I think there are times when a deal for prospects is the correct path. This just isn't one of those times. If somebody wants to give up Bryce Harper, then maybe I talk. But many of the top prospects in farm systems would be lucky to get to pence's level, quite frankly.
I would hope he has improved, he's been in the league several years now. However, the only improvement that really matters is in performance and this season isn't quite up to par with his rookie season.
It is a team game however you need great players to win in this game. If your best player is historically rather mediocre then that doesn't generally speak well for the team. All-Star game selections are pointless. Every team gets one regardless of whether they're deserving or not and an All-Star is selected at midseason. If a player gets off to a rough start he could not be an All-Star and be considered the MVP of the league at the end of the season. If your top prospects would be lucky have a Pence like career at this point then your system sucks as ours sucks.
Sorry, but most clubs don't have little baby Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder sitting in the minors. You are talking about super-star players. Most teams have one of these or simply none. (Unless your the Yankees/Red Sox Etc..) Pence has had a sold-above average baseball career. If most clubs knew a guy was going to turn out similar to Pences production they would probably draft him fairly high.
Pence is an above average/good baseball player but just doesn't have the plate discipline to improve more then what your seeing. I would rather not pay him 10 million a year on a 100 loss team. Give me prospects to build around and have all the young guys be good together and also consider one of Pence's biggest weapons is his speed, once a player turns 30 that tends to go first. Norris, Wallace and Lyles are the only untouchables on this team....everyone else should be gone by the deadline next season, at the latest.
Can you make a point without a generalization? You seem to think that: because I feel trading pence is the wrong move, that I am also indirectly settling for a mediocre star. This doesn't make sense on many levels. You are confusing yourself. Keeping pence in no way means that the astros, or I (btw), are resting our faith of the entire franchise on Hunter Pence. Is this what you think NO TRADING PENCE MEANS? Newsflash: I don't even believe that Hunter is or will be the best player on this team. As far as I look at it, he will be a major contributor to the astros coming back to compete for a championship. But in reality the astros are going to need other players, one or two of which, might be a superstar. In case you didn't realize we have other prospects: castro, Martinez, we have Wallace and Lyle, and if we get the number 1 pick in the draft we are going to get a possible generalizational player. All of this can be done, and keeping pence. What are you saying again?
I think his biggest weapon is his consistent bat. The astros have already reduced their operational costs to Durham Bull status with the trades of Berkman and Oswalt. Pence right now is the only reason anybody watches this team. Paying the guy makes sense, if for that reason alone.
I'm saying you have terrible judgement when it comes to baseball talent and what's best for the Astros going forward. And seriously, Jason Castro is a catcher who's now had ACL surgery. JD Martinez is about to become a 24 year old AA player. Bret Wallace has 8 career home runs in a full season at 1st base and has a physique that makes Carlos Lee think he's fit. And really which is it? Do we have several top prospects that would be lucky to become like Pence, a mediocre "star" in your words, or we have a couple of prospects that might become superstars? Is that might become superstars like you might become President one day? Sounds like it.
The Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball and have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. If this isn't one of those times then there isn't such a time. The direction that the team should be going in couldn't be any more crystal clear right now.
To the casual fan, maybe but honestly does anyone watch the Astros because they want to see Hunter Pence? Maybe a few girls here or there but he really isn't drawing many fans at all. Stros payroll still around 80 million so there payroll still way above where it should be with raises to come to Pence and Bourn. With those raises next season the payroll will be around the same, maybe a little less, but will be another season of 100 losses and 80 million in contracts. I will be pretty upset if two of Bourn, Myers, Wandy, Pence or Keppinger aren't moved by this deadline. Myers has restored some of his trade value but he would make the most sense with his decent contract and recent success. Bourn is close to 30 and his speed will go first, he is having a very nice season and his value is as high as possible.
Dude, you are so focused on this superstar or bust mentality that you misread what I said. How did you conclude that I said we have two superstar prospects from this: But in reality the astros are going to need other players, one or two of which, might be a superstar. All I am trying to show you is your own fallacious thinking. Do I think that trading pence is going to be the difference in the astros getting a superstar player, my answer to that is no. You however seem to think otherwise. This is what you said: "If your best player is historically rather mediocre then that doesn't generally speak well for the team." I still don't see how trading a very good player in pence is going to change our prospects of finding a player as good as him, or better, even a superstar player. If you can explain this to me, then maybe I could understand you better. The only thing trading pence would do would lower the talent on the team, and I suppose your statement would be if historically your best player is wallace then, or waddy then or bud norris then. It doesn't make a lot of sense. The idea is to find a player that IS better than pence. To do that, you have to develop your talent, draft well, etc. You don't hit reset and hope for the best. And like I said, if the nationals want to give up Bryce Harper, I'm all for it. If it is Dominic Brown, then count me out.
In 1990, Stros traded a very good reliever in Larry Anderson for a AA third baseman...his name...Jeff Bagwell. In 1991, Stros traded a very good 1st baseman in Glenn Davis for a young CF and two young SPitchers...Steve Finley, Pete Harnish and Curt Schilling. In 2003, the Braves need offensive help and decided to trade for JD Drew giving up a young struggling minor league pitcher to the Cardinals...Adam Wainwright. These are just three examples where teams chose to get worse right now to potentially get better long term. It all depends on scouts who see these kids on an everyday basis to determine what they could become. You can't hold on to a guy just because the minor leaguers you'd get in return MIGHT not turn out, if the people on the farm do their jobs, then its a risk good organizations must take.
It's would be horrible to not make a beneficial move because some player is a "fan favorite". It's simple: win and fans will come; lose and they won't. The Astros still have one of the worst farm systems in baseball with little immediate help on the horizon. The major league club is terrible but there's some worthwhile players in their primes (Pence, Bourn and Wandy). Pence is in the middle of his peak prime and it looks like he's developed into a legit all-star. He's not a superstar though and he's about to get very expensive. imo, given the state of the system, this year and probably at least the next couple seasons will be non-contending years. The Astros should seek to sell high on these guys now and collect high end prospects that will coalesce at the major league level around 2013-14. If you could tell me that in 2014 the Astros organization was in the position of the Royals this year (or the 1990 astros) I'd be ecstatic. Look at what Kansas City, the Pirates (under huntington and new ownership) and the rays have done. Learn from their mistakes and how they eventually succeeded and copy that. That should be the goal. The Astros shouldn't be desperate to sell off Pence (I think they should be with Wandy and Bourn) and I wouldn't sell him for 50 cents on the dollars. But I would sell him for 100 cents if those prospects gave the team a better chance of winning in 2014 then a 15 million dollar 32 yo Pence. Everything management does now should be with an eye toward 2013-14. It sucks that the team is in this position but denial will only r****d progress.
I was on board with trading Oswalt last year. You misunderstand me if you think I'm saying that the model of trading veterans for prospects doesn't work. It does. But just like you said, there aren't any Albert Pujlos Jrs stashed away in the minors somewhere. I think waddy and Keppinger are the guys the astros would be targeting in deals like those. Bourn, I'm on the fence with. The guy is critical position player and outstanding defensively, but will he ever become a kenny lofton type with his bat. I doubt it. Bourn is a guy that is a potential sell high player because he has some skills but also has a lot of downside as well. Ideally we need to get some top prospect in pitching or a power hitter out of this.
