Alright Astros fans...Is it time to rebuild?

The "sell the farm" approach rarely works. Only get rid of players who aren't in the long or medium term plans.

 

I totally understand not wanting to blow up the team. People often overstate how long rebuilding takes. There's every chance that guys like Berkman, Oswalt (though the decline in his K-rate is very frightening), and Lee will be effective players on the Astros next good team.

On the other hand - why the heck would we bother trying to trade for missing pieces, now? This isn't like in years past, where there were quality players to revive the club's fortunes. The Astros are seriously deficient in both hitting and pitching. Drayton has tried to avoid rebuilding for as long as possible. He's been willing to take some risks to prolong the window of opportunity. This one is closed, and trying futilely to keep it open will only make rebuilding more difficult.

 

Which leads me to my point, of why did I get flak when I said Oswalt wasn't K'ing guys left and right anymore? Oswalt's strikeout numbers are what makes him a good pitcher and without the increase in strikeouts, he gets hit more often.

 

i want the in between. Trade the pieces, but don't trade ANYone and EVERyone.. just trade one of the 3 in the bullpen (preferably Wheeler if you can get decent value...otherwise, I guess we gotta move Lidge). Don't move Oswalt, Pence, Berkman, Lee.. shoot, I might consider trying to keep Burke unless we got really good value back. I still think he needs a chance to prove himself..

 

delete.

 

We need to reload, not rebuild. And you don't do that by trading away your best starter (Oswalt), or your best reliever (Lidge). Most of our best players are right in their prime (Oswalt, Berkman, Lee, Lidge). No need to have a knee jerk reaction and get rid of them for a bunch of prospects that are just a few years younger that have proven absolutely nothing and likely won't even pan out.

 

I would say go into rebuilding mode, but I have no confidence that Purp could competently accomplish anything. If we tried to rebuild, Purp would probably screw it up and we'd set ourselves back for years. So, until Uncle Drayton replaces Purp, I say we stand pat. Maybe trade a player or two but nothing drastic.

 

Yes, sell and sell hard, but so long as the obvious guys (Lee, Pence, Berkman, Oswalt) are off the table. Rebuild the farm, don't extend for vets. This team is not 2-3 guys away.

Evan

 

i'm with this. hold on to the guys you mentioned...listen to offers for everyone else.

 

You're simply not right... that's why you're getting "flak".

His best full year in the majors (excluding his rookie year where he didn't pitch the full season) was 2005... which featured a pretty sharp decline in his SO/9 IP mainly due to a change in approach to pitching.

His worst full year in the majors (excluding this half-year) was 2004... when he was in the epitome of "strike everybody out" mode that spurred the change in approach about 1/3'd-way through the 2005 season (after Ausmus started catching). He was also suffering from increased ribcage soreness, and given his frame, I think everybody welcomed the change in approach to save some miles off the arm (don't need another Pedro sapping $14 million a year to pitch a full season every 3 years).

He also followed 2005 up with a pretty damn consistent 2006... using the same approach. Currently, its probably not just one single thing that's victimizing Oswalt. He's had off-and-on feel of his curveball, he's had mental lapses where he gives up walks/hits to the pitcher, he's had games where he was dominant but with no run support, he's had games which he's struggled, but ended up winning because of lots of run support. Also, if you notice the huge disparity in home/road splits... there has to be something up to make this more than just "pitching mechanics"... nobody is that dominant at home vs. the road unless they're playing in the ultimate pitchers park (which they're not).

But, I don't think he mysteriously "lost it" because he's not pitching like he did in 2001 when he was going strictly with 95mph fastball and 69mph curveball... because in reality, he hasn't pitched like that since 2005... and has put up sub 3.00 ERA's, while pitching every fourth day without fail since then.

 

high strikeout guys usually have problem going deep into games. oswalt is at his best when he's flying through the game with groundballs all over the place. when he starts striking guys out, he drives up his pitch count and has to turn too much of the game over to the pen.

 

He said earlier this year that he was rushing his body to the plate and that was affecting his command. Like you said, he doesn't need to strike everybody out to be a great pitcher, but he just hasn't had his usual command this year, especially on his offspeed stuff. There were a few games earlier this year where he basically junked the curve & change & went solely fastball/slider. That's not Roy. And when he left a fastball over the plate, which he's always done from time to time, hitters were geared for it.

Physical, mental or mechanical. Who knows what, exactly? But there's no reason he can't get back to the level of success he's seen in the past.

Back on topic: Stros have said they're not going to trade any of the cornerstone players (Berkman, Roy, Carlos). They naturally wouldn't trade Pence unless it was part of a huge deal. They've said they don't *want* to trade Lidge. Everyone else is, and should be, fair game.

 

They are in position to reload. They have 4 players any franchise would like to build around. if they can find a way to get rid of some of the dead weight (Ensberg, Palmeiro) and actually get something back for them, then great. They definitely need to find a way to get better everyday players at 3B & C, find at least 1 more starter, and if they can upgrade SS without giving up so much defense, then do it.

I like Loretta & Lamb and I'd hate to lose both. They are both valuable pieces to any good team. I think they should keep one of them and trade the other for prospects. I'm for keeping Lidge and seeing what Qualls &/or Wheeler can get you. Throw Jason Lane in any deal to get rid of even the thought of bringing him back up.

I just don't think they are that far away from contending again. However, the front office is going to have to prove us wrong and show us that they do, in fact, know what they are doing.

 

these guys are immaterial. ensberg is, right now, the 24th player on the roster, palmiero the 25th, and lane is in austin.

they have essentially 6 players with any value (excluding oswalt, berkman, lee and pence): loretta, lamb, jennings, qualls, wheeler and lidge. that's pretty much it. my gut says they'll hold on to lidge unless someone blows them away with an offer.

this will be a really interesting stretch for the astros and tim purpura.

 

if made available, lidge would be among the most sought-after players on the market, if not the MOST sought-after. and no, the trades aren't going to fill EVERY hole, especially if you deal your entire back of the bullpen, a top of the rotation starter and your entire "bench" (loretta and lamb).

that's why purprua better have a solid idea of what he has where within the organization so that he can make trades AND fill holes internally. and he can't be wrong this go 'round. if he invests in the next wave of lanes, ensbergs, scotts, wandys and burkes, we're in a LOT of trouble.

 

For the blow it up crowd ...

There were many years where Biggio and Bags were the only two good players on the Astros. The Astros then chose to build around them. I suspect that this will be the approach this time as well.