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Alright Astros fans...Is it time to rebuild?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by steefrancis, Jul 16, 2007.

  1. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    uhm... which playoffs were you watching?

    lidge would yield two good to very good prospects, easily. he's has dominant stuff, is playoff tested and, after an off year, has bounced back with a terrific 2007. there will be few players available as good, and as valuable, as brad lidge (if he's made available).

    and which players are we using the acquire the tree where top pitching prospects grow? or is that what you'd do with oswalt - deal him for pitching prospects? so you'd trade an established ace pitcher for potential ace pitchers...?

    i didn't realize we had shut down our minor league operations...? the astros actually have some intriguing prospects on the farm, including several pitchers.
     
  2. Major

    Major Member

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    What on earth are you talking about??? Until the last 5 games of 2005, he was arguably the best closer in the league, playoffs and regular season.
     
  3. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    I would try to get him a few saves before the Trading deadline to pump up offers for him.

    DD
     
  4. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    not needed; teams know brad lidge's value, save for those that came into existence in 2006 and hired all newborns.
     
  5. JunkyardDwg

    JunkyardDwg Contributing Member

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    Biggio and Bagwell weren't playing at discounted rates...they, in Bagwell's case for sure, had backloaded contracts... the year we went to the WS we had to grossly overpay for essentially a DH w/ a bum shoulder.

    Last I checked, baseball doesn't have a salary cap, so Drayton could essentially sign whoever he wanted...like Clemens and his 20 million dollar paycheck.
     
  6. JunkyardDwg

    JunkyardDwg Contributing Member

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    http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/...t_id=2089908&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou


    At what point in time do we finally mail this thing in and start looking at next year? Do we have anything down on the farm that could come up and benefit from some playing time this season? I don't think they're coming back this season.
    -- Mike M., Pasadena

    I think reality is starting to set in, Mike. The Astros were never in this deep of a deficit in the past years when they made those miraculous or near-miraculous comebacks. This year's club isn't as good as those past teams. And, when the Astros staged two of those comebacks, they also were bolstered by utter collapses by other teams. The Cubs fell on their faces in 2004, and the Cardinals came oh-so-close to blowing an eight-game lead with 14 to play last year.

    In terms of the farm system, I would venture to guess we could see left-hander Troy Patton at some point this year, probably after rosters expand on Sept. 1. Other than that, I wouldn't expect to see many more new faces.

    What are the Astros doing about getting rid Morgan Ensberg? He may not be worth much, but do you think we could get some young talent for the farm? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Astros are not going to pay a bench player, which is basically what Ensberg has become, more than $4 million per season.
    -- Robert D., Lafayette, La.

    If they don't deal Ensberg, who has little to no trade value, then they'll have to make a decision this offseason. He has one more year of arbitration eligibility. I wouldn't be surprised if they non-tendered him, which basically means they won't offer him a contract and he'll become a free agent. If they tender him a contract, you're right, they'll have to pay him at least $4 million in arbitration, and I just can't imagine why they would do that. I say cut ties with him and let him try to resurrect his career in a new environment.

    That will require the Astros to try to obtain a third baseman this winter, either via free agency or trade. They also need to look for a catcher and a right fielder. Some starting pitching would be nice, too.

    Assuming Craig Biggio is retiring after this season, and the current rotating door at third base, what are the chances that the Astros will try and keep Mark Loretta to start at one of those positions next season?
    -- Glenn L., Destrehan, La.

    I don't think the Astros have ruled out retaining Loretta beyond this year. They are first going to give Chris Burke every opportunity to prove he's a worthy everyday second baseman. They've hung on to him this long and still have high hopes for him. Burke hasn't had his shot and now he's going to get it, but certainly, if he struggles, the Astros would be crazy not to at least consider Loretta for the future. I doubt they'd put him at third base, though. His strongest position is second base.

    There are lots of rumors about Adam Dunn, a Houston native, maybe being traded. Are the rumors true, and do you think the Astros are interested in his power to fill our five-hole?
    -- Reese E., Bellaire

    The Reds have been rumored to be interested in trading Dunn, but no, the Astros are not interested. If you put him at first base, it's a defensive downgrade from Lance Berkman, and if you put him in right, the outfield will be frighteningly slow. You can have either Carlos Lee or Dunn in your outfield. Not both. Lee's locked up through 2012. The math is easy.

    When you talked to Jeff Bagwell, did you ask him about the shoulder? His shoulder doesn't hurt anymore and let's say he wants to try to get back into form for September callups. We give him a chance and he ends up hitting a pinch-hit walk-off home run after Biggio beats out an infield single. Not to be writing a script or anything, but can't a guy dream? -- Christopher P., Houston

    A guy can certainly dream, nothing wrong with that. Actually, I had a nice dream myself: I won the lottery, bought a plane and flew to an exotic island, never to be heard from again -- just me, my iPod, my Bose headphones, some margarita mix and a blender.

    That dream, by the way, is 1,000 times more likely to come true than your dream. Jeff's shoulder is not hurting him like it did when he was playing, but it's still a mess. He'll need a new one someday.

    I understand that Ensberg and Jason Lane have no trade value, but what about Mike Lamb, Loretta and Brad Lidge? Any chance we see any of the three or any combination including those three be traded before the deadline?
    -- Brent P., Coldspring

    I think we all need to step back and look at this in realistic terms. Lamb, Loretta and Jason Jennings are all free agents after the season. That means the team that trades for them risks losing them after the season is over. They're called rent-a-players. What do you think the Astros are going to get in return? A 30-homer defensively sound 25-year-old third baseman? A 220-inning No. 2 starter with three years of arbitration eligibility ahead of him? A Pudge-like catcher with a cannon arm?

    No, no and no. You're just not going to get a lot for these guys. They're solid players, yes. And Jennings certainly could bolster a contending team's pitching staff, and for him, perhaps you can get a nice prospect. But interested clubs aren't going to give up much to get any three.

    I think there's a notion that if the Astros traded those three for prospects, they could replenish their farm system with top tier talent guaranteed to reach the big leagues. That's simply not realistic.

    Lidge would be the big trading chip. But the Astros are very, very hesitant to deal him. Despite his past struggles, he's still got the stuff of a premier closer and he certainly proved that he can still handle the job. But also, if they trade Lidge, who's going to close? They have no other options. Dan Wheeler does not appear to be the answer, nor does Chad Qualls, and no one in the Minor League system would be ready for the job this year or next.

    Pitching is expensive these days. If they trade Lidge, they'll have to get a closer through a trade or the free agent market. Seems kind of counterproductive, doesn't it? Why not just keep Lidge?

    I do not get it, why does anyone think that Burke will be any better next year starting at second base and batting second than he was this year starting in center and batting second?
    -- Paul P., Houston

    I envision Burke as the leadoff guy, not the No. 2 hitter. Sometimes, when players who are asked to play out of position and hit in a spot in the order they're not used to, they struggle to adjust. Burke as a center fielder, batting sixth, didn't work out very well. Burke as a leadoff man playing second base, which is what the club had in mind when it drafted him six years ago, could work. Stay tuned.

    With the team performing as it has lately, when do you think the Astros might consider making a change in managers? What about Bagwell for consideration? I think this would be a good fit to our team as he is sure to be a crowd attraction.
    -- Chris M., Fla.

    If you wanted to make Bagwell the manager, you'd have to gag and blindfold him, tie him to a chair, drag him to the manager's office and make him stay there under a 24-hour police watch. In other words, I'm going to go out on a limb and assume he has no desire at this point to manage. It's time-consuming and stressful and as soon as the team would lose five or six in a row you'd all be calling for his head. Who needs that kind of aggravation? I'd rather golf in Cabo.

    I have heard people saying that the Astros could trade Roy Oswalt. Do you think they will?
    -- Timmy Y., Galveston

    No, I do not think they'll trade him. This club is built around Berkman, Oswalt and Lee. All three have no-trade clauses, but the difference between Oswalt and Berkman is Oswalt would consider waiving the no-trade clause, whereas Berkman has no desire to play anywhere else. Oswalt would have say over where he would go, and there are only a few teams he'd consider. He'd only go to a team where he'd get plenty of run support and where he could have a chance at a World Series ring.

    If the Astros decided to tear down the whole thing and start over with a rebuilding process, had no chance to win for at least three years and wanted to trade Oswalt, surely he would listen. But the Astros haven't gone with a complete overhaul/youth movement since 1991, and knowing how competitive Drayton McLane is, I doubt he'd authorize one now.

    I'll go you one better than your muted criticism on Carlos Lee's baserunning and say this: it's disgraceful (or should be) for a man making as much money as he is to loaf down to first base night after night. My question is, how does a coach at this level handle such indifference? We've always heard of the "clubhouse leadership" thing and how it's supposedly enforced internally, but I don't see it happening here.
    -- Rob, Austin

    To be fair, I received this e-mail before Lee was booed during the last homestand. For those who missed it, Lee hit what looked like a routine ground ball, but the fielder bobbled it and the play at first would have been close, had Lee been running hard. But he wasn't, and he was still out by several steps. He was roundly booed.

    I do not know exactly what was said behind closed doors but I must give credit where it is due -- since that episode, there has been much more of an effort from many players, including Lee. I've noticed Berkman and Ausmus putting a little mustard behind their sprints down the line as well, so I have to assume management addressed the issue.

    Alyson Footer is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
     
  7. msn

    msn Member

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    Really? Which ones?

    Let's see: mebbe '97 (wait--DB didn't suck yet and was pretty good that year; Hampton and Reynolds were also pretty good)
    Hmmm -- '95 and '96 oh yeah, pre-sucktitude DB and Hampton and Reynolds.
    '91, '92, '93, '94: Ken Caminiti says "Hi!" Gonzo and Finley weren't all that bad, either. Harnish was a decent SP.
    '98 - Randy Freaking Johnson, Carl Everett, Moises Alou, Mike Hampton, and Shane Reynolds all say, "Hi!"
    '99 - Ditto minus RJ
    '00, - Hidalgo
    '01, '02 - Berkman, Oswalt, Wade Miller
    '03, '04 - Kent, Beltran
    '05, '06 - Clemens, Pettitte

    Crap, I left Wagner and Lidge out of the whole thing.

    We're starting to run out of years--perhaps we ought to downgrade "many" to a "few", or perhaps "one or two". Or maybe, "never mind, they were never the only good players on the team." :D

    Oh, and Alou, Everett, Johnson, and Bell were traded for, not signed. Hidalgo, Berkman, Oswalt, Wagner, Lidge, Miller, Hampton, and Reynolds were all products of the Astros farm.

    And then there's the guys I'm probably forgetting about.

    ___________________________________________________________

    It's been good times since the rebuilding process began in 1991! The Astros have been extrememly competitive for a long time and have made some memorable playoff runs (and some agonizingly frustrating early exits). We've seem some *great* players come through here.

    If they rebuild now and set their course for 17 more years like what we just had, I'm cool. Rebuilding every decade-and-a-half ain't all that bad.
     
  8. steefrancis

    steefrancis Member

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    yea until Pujols deflated him and he lost it mentally. the guy has only one freaking season of 40+ saves and thats it. he had a 5.00 era the year after and he doesnt have a save since LAST YEAR! he is a talent i agree but he doesnt have the trade value some of you think he has. doesnt anyone remember all the trade lidge threads? so he has been pitching well as a setup now so was dan wheeler it doesnt make them closers if you dont have the mentality to handle it.
     
  9. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    god bless, alyson footer...
     
  10. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    re: brad lidge, it would best for both yourself and all of us if you'd stop posting immediately. you obviously have no idea what you're talking about.

    sorry if that came off angry and mean, but this last post, following the others, was just flat-out ridiculous.
     
  11. steefrancis

    steefrancis Member

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    yea terrific 2007 he does have, he lost his job and only got it back when wheeler was exploited for the fraud he is. He has 0 saves since last year. what a great season. if we could only get bucholtz for wagner what 2 great prospects can we get for a deflated lidge? the only way we can get fair value for lidge is letting him get a few saves and prove he can still do it, til then no team will think of him as he once was.

    the key to the oswalt deal is the fact we lose one player and get at least 3 top prospects in return. i didnt say to just trade him for nothing we have to get mlb caliber players for him nothing else or i would never trade him for free. my argument is that none of the other players we have, have as much of trade value as roy. to improve our team doesnt mean to sell our underachieving players cause we wont get anything in return. i dont want to lose Roy he is one of my favorite players but i dont honestly see uncle drayton putting out more money from his pocket without getting a "clemens" type investment in return.

    and these "intriguing" prospects you mention...wow...blows you away huh? we used up our minors its pretty much weeded out of talent right now i think we all can agree, can we? it is pretty much shut down at the moment
     
  12. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    These were the teams I was thinking about. BTW I was saying that the other 23 members of the team were not "franchise" players, i.e player that were too ggod to trade. Refresh me on the trade status of Caminiti, Gonzo and Finley. ;)
     
  13. steefrancis

    steefrancis Member

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    im posting facts playa....dont know why you have any need for hostility towards it.

    what wasnt right? lidge didnt lose his job? he actually does have a save this year? oh he has more than one 40 save season?
    no need playa
     
  14. Major

    Major Member

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    MLB teams are not as silly as fans. They don't need to see 2 saves out of Lidge to say "ooh, he's back!". They look at mechanics, fundamentals, etc. Lidge's value is set - nothing that happens in the next week or two (barring injury) is going to change his value, whether he gets lit up for 10 runs or gets 5 perfect saves.

    The Wagner thing is certainly true - but keep in mind that wasn't nearly the seller's market this is, and Wagner was being pay $10+MM and was a free agent at the end of the year. I believe that Lidge is under club control for another year at least - though I could be wrong about that. He's also paid much less despite much higher overall payrolls.
     
  15. steefrancis

    steefrancis Member

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    its the year 2007 now
     
  16. msn

    msn Member

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    Proven to be BS time and time again. Even the mediots don't believe this drivel anymore. I can't believe anyone takes this seriously.

    Riiiiiiiiiight.
    <table><tr><td>Year</td><td>G</td><td>SV</td><td>IP</td><td>SO</td><td>ERA</td><td>WHIP</td></tr><tr><td>2002</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>8.7</td><td>12</td><td>6.23</td><td>2.423</td></tr><tr><td>2003</td><td>78</td><td>1</td><td>85.0</td><td>97</td><td>3.60</td><td>1.200</td></tr><tr><td>2004</td><td>80</td><td>29</td><td>94.7</td><td>157</td><td>1.90</td><td>0.919</td></tr><tr><td>2005</td><td>70</td><td>42</td><td>70.7</td><td>103</td><td>2.29</td><td>1.146</td></tr><tr><td>2006</td><td>78</td><td>32</td><td>75.0</td><td>104</td><td>5.28</td><td>1.400</td></tr><tr><td>2007</td><td>36</td><td>0</td><td>36.7</td><td>48</td><td>2.21</td><td>1.200</td></tr></table>
    Now, *there's* a real slouch for ya.

    As far as the "I'm posting facts playa" drivel and the "he doesn't have the mentality for the closer's role" drivel, that is utter folly as you and I both have no freaking clue what "mentality" is necessary. We don't know the pressure. We don't even know how it feels to step onto a mound in the *minors*, so it's awfully foolish to dogmatically discuss who has what it takes and who doesn't.
     
  17. Major

    Major Member

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    Yes, and you said:

    has always played horrible in the playoffs

    You do realize that when I quote you, I probably am responding to what I quoted, which had nothing to do with 2007, right?
     
  18. msn

    msn Member

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    Ahh, you had said "good" players. Now, very few teams have more than one or two "franchise" players, and those who do would trade one or two of them! So the point is moot.
     
  19. steefrancis

    steefrancis Member

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    look all im saying of all this is that lidge IMO doesnt have the trade value he once had. trading him away is not a going to "fix" our team. that is all. i dont mean hostility to any of yall so quote me for what you want to but lidge has not been himself since 2005 playoffs or we would never even think about trading him right now
     
  20. JunkyardDwg

    JunkyardDwg Contributing Member

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    Fact: in 2004 Lidge converted 29 out of 33 saves; in 2005 he converted 42 out of 46; in 2006 (even with a high era) he managed 32 out of 38...he only had one 40+ save season because he only had one season so far to achieve that. All three season though he posted great SV to SVO ratios.

    Fact: Over his last 10 games he hast posted an .85 ERA; over that span he has pitched 11 innings and allowed 1 run while striking out 14.

    Conclusion: Lidge's problems were mechanical all along, not some myth that Pujol's shot forever ruined him. It was only after the frustrations mounted from trying to fix said mechanical problems that it became clear he was losing it mentally. If you've watched him over this span you would see that he has a lot better command of his pitches.
     

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