http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-olmos-omar-desmond-marte-mazara-more/ Mike Elias on Martes: “He has a fast, power curveball that’s deep. It’s got a lot of lateral break, too. He’s also got a good changeup. That’s something he’s improved upon more recently. His curveball has always been kind of his thing, and in the last year or two the changeup has come together for him really well. When he gets to the big leagues, it’s going to help him quite a bit to have both of those weapons. He’s got as high a ceiling as probably as any righty in the major leagues. He has such a gifted arm, and such a weapon breaking ball, plus the changeup as a third pitch. Something that can be lost sight of is how young he is. He went to Double-A and held his own. In and of itself, that says something. If you look at the list of guys who have pitched well in Double-A at age 19, it’s a really, really impressive list. He’s got time on his side — we’re certainly not going to rush him — but if things go well for him this year, his road to Houston could be a very fast one. We’ve got high hopes for him.
What's crazy is how Luhnow has been able to get some kind of significant advantage to adding amateur talent almost every season: 2012: had an extra 1st rounder (McCullers) 2014: had an extra 1st rounder (Fisher, although Aiken deal eliminated the advantage) 2015: had 2 extra 1st rounders (Tucker, Cameron) 2016: went way over intl signing pool (signed 5 $1M+ players: Nova, C Perez, Macuare, Cueta, A Sierra; most years teams get 1-2) 2017: 2 extra picks
Here's some BSPN Insider stuff on our farm system from Keith Law. He breaks down a few players and lightly discusses the health of the farm in general: http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6617 Spoiler: Full Article Keith Law ESPN Senior Writer The Astros’ system remains strong even after several trades for big league help and a much lower draft position in 2016, thanks to a big investment in the international market and some steals in lower rounds of previous drafts such as Ramon Laureano and Garrett Stubbs. Their No. 1 prospect, however, came out of a trade that seemed minor at the time, sending Jarred Cosart and Jake Marisnick to Miami for Colin Moran, and speaks to the strength of Houston’s baseball operations across the board. 1. Francis Martes, RHP (Ranked No. 37) 2. Kyle Tucker, OF (Ranked No. 57) 3. Franklin Perez, RHP (Ranked No. 66) 4. Forrest Whitley, RHP (Ranked No. 78) 5. Ramon Laureano, OF 6. Miguelangel Sierra, SS 7. Teoscar Hernandez, OF 8. Derek Fisher, OF 9. Daz Cameron, OF 10. Garrett Stubbs, C Non-top 100 guys Ramon Laureano was the Astros’ 16th-round out of Northeast Oklahoma A&M College, a two-year school in Miami, Oklahoma, and he did nothing his first year-plus in pro ball before a huge breakout in 2016 that saw him rake in high-A Lancaster (a hitter’s haven) and then carry it over to Double-A as well. He’s well put together and yet athletic for a guy who’s built like a small tank, an above-average runner out of the box and plus underway, with fringe-average power and a mature, all-fields approach that has him hitting the ball hard the other way if that’s how he’s pitched. I think he’s at least an everyday guy, a 50 trending towards a 55 (above-average) regular. I think Miguelangel Sierra surprised even the Astros by finishing second in the Appy League in home runs at age 18 even though he only played there for 31 games. (The one guy ahead of him played 61 games.) His swing is geared for line drives rather than huge power, while he’s solid-average across the board at shortstop and should stay there if he doesn’t outgrow it. The power output came with a few too many strikeouts, but given his age that’s not terribly concerning. Teoscar Hernandez really worked on improving his pitch recognition and it paid off in his performance at Double-A and Triple-A, earning him a big-league call up and I think the chance to be someone’s regular in right field, maybe in center if you can live with subpar defense there. He’s still probably going to be a low-OBP guy but will bring you power, speed, and in either corner above-average range, and players with this profile do sometimes develop later or have outlier years where they make enough contact to be more than just average regulars. Derek Fisher remains a bit of an enigma, a power-speed-patience guy who strikes out more than he should and doesn’t play the outfield as well as he should. I think he’s an everyday guy in a corner who will show you things that make you think he’s a star, but I’d say it’s 80-20 against him getting to that latter level. Daz Cameron had a washout of a year, struggling mightily in the Midwest League and developing some bad swing habits, returning to extended, then starting off well in short-season ball before he suffered a broken finger when he was hit by a pitch, ending his year. He should be ready to return to low-A and have a much better season in 2017, at which point we’ll have a real read on his progress. Garrett Stubbs can really hit and is a very good defensive catcher all around, but he is truly tiny for the position and there’s widespread skepticism on his ability to stay healthy and effective for a full season in such a physically demanding role. I wonder if he’s like the Dodgers’ Austin Barnes -- someone who could catch 50-60 games a year, maybe play an infield position a little, come off the bench, do a lot of little things without a permanent role. Right-hander David Paulino (11) is a huge kid at 6-7, 215 (listed), and has big arm strength, but he’s just a thrower at this point, with a super-slow curveball that’s a 40 right now and a fringe-at-best changeup. I think he’s 90/10 to go to the bullpen, and even there has some work to do. Shortstop Jonathan Arauz (12) was one of just a few 17-year-olds in the Appy League last year, splitting time at short and second base, and is still more potential than performance -- although that’s hardly surprising for his age. He came to Houston in the Ken Giles trade and still projects as a potential everyday guy at second base, with more upside but of course a lot of risk he doesn’t pan out. Cuban first baseman Yordan Alvarez (13) signed with the Dodgers for $2 million as a free agent, but never played a game for them, instead going to Houston in exchange for Josh Fields in July. He’s listed at 6-5, 225, and he won’t turn 20 until June, but scouts feel like he has present power and ability to hit, enough that he might be top five in this system in a year once he’s played in the U.S. Outfielder Ronnie Dawson (14), the Astros’ second-round pick in 2016 out of Ohio State, is strictly a left fielder and has to produce offensively to be a regular. He has power, speed, patience, and probably too much swing-and-miss to get there, although we’ll get a better ready once he’s at an age-appropriate level in 2017. Third baseman J.D. Davis (15) has the power for the hot corner but not the OBP or contact skills and projects as a below-average regular, not someone who’s cracking the left side of Houston’s infield any time soon. Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra (16) is very likely to stay at the position, although he’s just a fringy runner, thanks to good hands and footwork. He’s a contact guy, unlikely to produce much power, but there’s a solid chance he’ll hit enough to become an everyday player at a position that doesn’t require a whole lot offense. He turns 23 in February and thus the Astros should probably push him to high-A or above. Center fielder Gilberto Celestino (17) signed with Houston for $2.5 million in 2015 and has an intriguing combination of above-average speed and defense with good bat speed and, based just on his tiny sample in pro ball, an idea at the plate. Lefty Cionel Perez (18) signed with the Astros, saw the team void his deal, then re-signed for a lower bonus. He’s got a small build but has the present stuff to be a starter, with the bullpen perhaps more likely because of his size. Cuban right-hander Rogelio Armenteros (19) succeeded last year in the low minors despite average stuff because he has good feel to pitch and above-average control. He might be a back-end starter in the end even if he rarely tops 90 mph. Right-hander Trent Thornton (20) pitched well at two levels last year, even in Lancaster, with a very high-slot delivery that will be tough to repeat but also tough on hitters. He might be Josh Collmenter, good once through the order, capable of the occasional spot start but not a rotation guy. Leftfielder Jason Martin (21) had a superficially big year in the California League, but the power was largely a function of the ballparks where he played, and I think the bat’s a little light for regular status in left. Right-hander Dean Deetz (22) pitched well in the Cal League and finished with two strong starts in Double-A. He’s a fastball/slider guy, in need of a better changeup for lefties to make him a potential back-end starter. Their 2016 sixth-rounder, outfielder Stephen Wrenn (23), might have been a Day 1 guy, but he saw his spring ruined by an eye injury he suffered in preseason practice. He’s a power/speed type with too much swing and miss so far but has regular upside based on his other tools. 2017 impact: Paulino could end up in the team’s bullpen this year, and Teoscar might be their extra outfielder, but otherwise the major-league roster is filled with established players or young players who’ve lost their eligibility for this list. The fallen: Third baseman Colin Moran slugged .368 in triple-A at age 23 and walked in under 10 percent of his plate appearances. The fifth overall pick in 2013 will play at 24 this year, but unless he completely changes his approach, he’s just going to be an up-and-down guy.
Laureano seems to be widely praised. Almost all prospect evaluators consider him to be (at least) an average everyday regular, which is awesome.
Looks like Frankie Tuesday was named our top minor league prospect by ESPN. No surprise. http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/6617
It's wierd to me. Laureano is a late round draft pick who had one good season, 1/2 of which was spent at the most offense friendly park/league in the minors. He is a good athlete but it's not like he has potential to be a 30/30 guy and he is very unlikely to be an everyday CF. I think he's a 4th OF with an outside chance to be a decent everyday RF.
My god that article is so poorly written and has so many factual errors. How did this make it past an editor? Wow.
Every day player is a 2-3 WAR guy, that's not a particularly high bar. A 30/30 guy is probably a 4+ WAR player these days, a clearly above average to all-star level player. Laureano is basically the opposite of Fisher; he maximizes his much more modest tools with great success while Fisher's loud power/speed tools play down because of contact issues. You can dream on Fisher's 30/30 "ability" but Laureano will probably put up more career WAR. After seeing Laureano's strong, but limited success at double A and the AFL I can see why scouts would be on board. He lead the minors in OBP, that can't be overlooked.
Fisher is unlikely to be a 30-30 guy, but he still has a decent chance of being a three true outcome hitter that can play LF. I'd still give Fisher the nod for likely career WAR..but it is closer than it should be.
True. I gave the nod to Laureano because i could see him spending 10 years in the league at different stops putting up 1-2 WAR at a time.
Even more Elias quotes.... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mike-elias-on-drafting-and-developing-astros-pitchers/
I liked the discussion on the changeup as it seems like most pitchers that don't attend college develop it in the minors. Some do, some don't. It also seems there has been some headway made in pitcher injuries regarding high schoolers.
The change is the last pitch that most pitchers master, its apparently really hard to have the same arm angle and the same arm speed and throw the ball with a different speed and break. It doesn't matter when you top out at 75-80, I tried.
There are a lot of guys that throw hard in high school with a breaking ball. Being able to project a pitcher developing a change is one of the more impressive skills a scout can have, IMO. Judging catcher prospects is another skill I find impressive in scouts.
