Nolan was a 2-pitch pitcher until his early 30's, then he mastered the change with his fb/curve and he lasted another ~15 years. The change is the great equalizer. Whitley may flame out but he has everything that you'd want in a pitcher, that's the one guy I wouldn't trade instead of Martes/Pauino. And you're right, catching prospects might be the most difficult thing in baseball to scout.
My takeaway from that was thinking about whether they construct their bullpen so it is composed of arms with repertoires complimentary to the rotation. If the rotation is made up of guys who work off their curve, a perfect bullpen would be made up of a mix of guys that work off their slider, heat, or changeup. Here's how the staff profiles in their primary pitch(es): Keuchel: sinker/slider McCullers: curve/FB McHugh: FB/curve/cutter Morton: sinker/curve Fiers: FB/curve Devenski: FB/changeup Feliz: FB/slider Peacock: FB Sipp: FB/slider Harris: cutter/curve Gregerson: slider/sinker Giles: FB/slider Musgrove: FB/slider Chapman: sinker/slider Hoyt: slider/FB Gustave: FB/slider Paulino: FB/curve Rodgers: FB/slider Tolliver: FB/changeup Guduan: FB Keuchel is the only SP that doesn't feature a curve. Harris is the only RP who throws a curve.
Baseball America is sending out their Prospect Handbooks starting today; I just got mine. As always, they'll give you an extra prospect report if you order from their website. So, let's get to it. Here's where Astros prospects ranked in each BA editor's personal top 50. Ben Badler 19. Francis Martes 21. A.J. Reed 28. Kyle Tucker 43. Franklin Perez J.J. Cooper 8. Martes 16. Tucker 28. David Paulino 48. Perez Matt Eddy 16. Martes 21. Tucker 40. Paulino John Manuel 14. Martes 28. Tucker Kyle Glaser 39. Martes 42. Tucker Baseball America ranks the Astros system as 4th-best in the league, behind the Braves, Dodgers, and Yankees. Top 2017 Rookie: Martes Breakout prospect: RHP Hector Perez Sleeper: RHP Angel Macuare 2016 draft analysis Best pure hitter: Ronnie Dawson, Ryne Birk Best power hitter: Dawson, Spencer Johnson On Johnson, who led Division I with 24 homers in 2016: Fastest runner: Stephen Wrenn Best defensive player: Jake Rogers Best fastball: Forrest Whitley Best secondary pitch: Whitley's curveball Best pro debut: Birk Best athlete: Wrenn, Dawson, Abraham Toro Most intriguing background: Stijn van der Meer; native of the Netherlands, was the SS for a team that won the European Championship, came to America to play for Lamar Closest to the Majors: Rogers, Whitley Best late-round pick: Birk The one who got away: Tyler Buffett Best Tools Best hitter for average: Kyle Tucker Best power hitter: A.J. Reed Best strike-zone discipline: Yulieski Gurriel Fastest baserunner: Myles Straw Best athlete: Daz Cameron Best fastball: Francis Martes Best curveball: Martes Best slider: Hector Perez Best changeup: Martes Best control: Brady Rodgers Best defensive catcher: Garrett Stubbs Best defensive infielder: Miguelangel Sierra Best infield arm: J.D. Davis Best defensive outfielder: Gilberto Celestino Best outfield arm: Teoscar Hernandez Projected 2020 lineup Uh... don't read too much into this? C: Stubbs 1B: Reed 2B: Altuve 3B: Bregman SS: Correa LF: Kyle Tucker CF: Teoscar RF: George DH: Josh Reddick SP1: Martes SP2: Keuchel SP3: McCullers SP4: Musgrove SP5: Franklin Perez Closer: David Paulino (????) And now.... here are the Top 31 prospects in the Houston Astros organization. according to Baseball America: 31. Reymin Guduan, LHP, 40/High 30. Colin Moran, 3B, 40/Medium; 29. Jose Luis Hernandez, RHP, 45/High 28. Yordan Alvarez, 1B, 45/Extreme 27. Tony Kemp, 2B/OF 40/Medium 26. Freudis Nova, SS, 50/Extreme 25. Lupe Chavez, RHP, 45/High 24. Rogelio Armenteros, RHP, 40/Medium 23. James Hoyt, RHP, 40/Medium 22. Brady Rodgers, RHP, 40/Medium 21. Trent Thornton, RHP, 45/High 20. Jake Rogers, C, 45/High 19. Gilberto Celestino, OF, 50/High 18. Jandel Gustave, RHP, 50/High 17. Jonathan Arauz, SS/2B, 50/High 16. Hector Perez, RHP, 55/Extreme 15. Ronnie Dawson, OF, 50/High 14. Daz Cameron, OF, 50/High 13. Ramon Laureano, OF, 50/High 12. J.D. Davis, 3B, 45/Medium 11. Miguelangel Sierra, SS/2B, 55/Extreme 10. Garrett Stubbs, C, 50/High 9. D.J. Fisher, OF, 50/Medium 8. Yulieski Gurriel, 3B/1B, 50/Medium 7. Teoscar Hernandez, OF, 55/High 6. Forrest Whitley, RHP, 60/Extreme 5. A.J. Reed, 1B, 55/High 4. Franklin Perez, RHP, 60/High 3. David Paulino, RHP, 60/High 2. Kyle Tucker, OF, 60/Medium 1. Francis Martes, RHP, 65/Medium Changes from 2016 Handbook In: Forrest Whitley, Yulieski Gurriel, Garrett Stubbs, Ramon Laureano, Ronnie Dawson, Hector Perez, Jonathan Arauz (was ranked in Phillies' system in 2016), Jake Rogers, Trent Thornton, Rogelio Armenteros, Lupe Chavez, Freudis Nova, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Luis Hernandez Out: Alex Bregman, Joe Musgrove, Mark Appel, Albert Abreu, Jon Kemmer, Tyler White, Thomas Eshelman, Max Stassi, Riley Ferrell, Wander Franco, Andrew Aplin, Alfredo Gonzalez, Matt Duffy, Nolan Fontana, Michael Freeman Biggest rise by someone who wasn't ranked: Ramon Laureano; unranked in 2016, #13 in 2017 Biggest rise by someone who was already in the book: Franklin Perez; #21 in 2016, #4 in 2017 Biggest drop: Jon Kemmer; #13 in 2016, unranked in 2017 Biggest drop by someone still in the book: Colin Moran; #9 in 2016, #30 in 2017 Brady Rodgers makes his third appearance in the Handbook; he's been ranked in the odd-numbered years since he's been drafted (2013, 2015) but has dropped out in the even-year editions. Breakdown By grade: 1 65 (Martes) 4 60s (Tucker, Paulino, Franklin Perez, Whitley) 4 55s (Reed, Teoscar, Sierra, Hector Perez) 10 50s (Yuli, Fisher, Stubbs, Laureano, Daz, Dawson, Arauz, Gustave, Celestino, Nova) 6 45s (Davis, Rogers, Thornton, Chavez, Alvarez, Jose Luis Hernandez) 6 40s (Rodgers, Hoyt, Armenteros, Kemp, Moran, Guduan) By position: 12 right-handed pitchers 1 left-handed pitcher 2 catchers 9 infielders 7 outfielders (Kemp is also listed as an OF, but I counted him as an infielder) Like it? Hate it? Any surprises? Also, in case you were wondering..... Spoiler - Josh Hader is #2 in the Brewers system with a grade of 55/Medium. Brett Phillips is #12 with a 55/High, and Jake Nottingham is #14 with a 50/High. Adrian Houser dropped out of their top 30 this year. - Rio Ruiz is #20 in the Braves system; he received a grade of 45/Medium. - Mark Appel is #20 in the Phillies system, with a grade of 40/Medium. Thomas Eshelman is #25, and he also received a 40/Medium grade. - Albert Abreu is the #9 prospect in the Yankees system; his grade is 55/High. Jorge Guzman is #26, with a grade of 50/Extreme. - Mike Hauschild, who was taken in the Rule 5 draft by Dallas, is #25 in their system with a grade of 40/Medium. - Brady Aiken is #4 in the Indians system with a grade of 60/Extreme. - Jacob Nix is #7 in the Padres system. He received a grade of 55/High. - Mac Marshall dropped out of the Giants' top 30; he was #28 in 2016. Cionel Perez was listed in the Appendix; he received a grade of 45/High. The Astros signed five of the top 50 international prospects: 5. Freudis Nova, SS, Dominican Republic 11. Yorbin Ceuta, SS, Venezuela 40. Angel Macuare, RHP, Venezuela 43. Nerio Rodriguez, C, Dominican Republic 46. Deurys Carrasco, SS, Dominican Republic Best Tools, International Prospects BA notes that Ceuta has "demonstrated excellent bat-to-ball skills." Macuare's fastball already reaches 93-94. Nova was mentioned in the best athlete section, and BA describes him as having the "loudest all-around tool package."
Thanks Tellit, Thinking the farm system is going to look a lot different next year. 6 of the top 10 may graduate. Expect another 2 could be traded if not more.
Looks like that "trade" of Mark Appel (a 40) for Derek Fisher and Jonathan Arauz (both 50s) worked out okay.
Interesting they named Stubbs the best defensive catcher since Rogers' rep is so strong. Also interesting that sierras was named the best SS since he had such a good year with the bat. My sleeprs this year: IF: Freudys Nova OF: Celestino LHP: Cionel Perez (Framber Valdez runner up) RHP: Jose Hernandez
Baseball America's love for Stubbs's defense almost has no bounds. They talk about him being better than Rogers defensively in almost every way except durability (i.e. Stubbs probably limited to <120 games a year) and arm strength (Stubbs has better pop times so this advantage is muted). That is once they are able to talk after drooling over Stubbs's defensive game. They make Stubbs sound like he's mini Ausmus.
The interview that keeps giving... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-walshs-world-reds-best-mlb-politics-more/ ...Organizations will sometimes ask a young pitcher to shelve an offering, at least temporarily, in order to better focus on another. “It’s on a case by case basis for us,” explained Elias. “It’s based on the judgement of our pitching coaches after a conversation with the player. If we were to take away a breaking ball, it would be because a guy has two and we thought one was so much worse than the other, or if we felt that using both was taking away from the quality of his primary breaking ball — there was starting to be some confusion between the two. Those would probably be the only reasons to subtract a pitch.” ———
To add a little more, it is tough for pitchers to get a medium or a low risk. It is tough for hitters to get a medium or low risk prior to AA. Martes and Tucker being medium suggests they have a high likelihood of being a capable MLB player even if they end up as a RP or a 4th OF.
Astros on Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list 15. Francis Martes 19. Kyle Tucker 51. David Paulino 54. Franklin Perez 72. A.J. Reed
Wow. They're gonna end up being the high guys in the industry on all those guys. I don't think I've seen people calling Martes and Tucker top 20 guys (particularly Tucker).
