I Marwin just isn’t gonna get a big payday. DJ Lemahieu and Daniel Murphy got 2/24. Jed Lowrie got 2/20MM. I don’t think Marwin gets anywhere close to that. Eduardo Escobar got 3/21MM. And then a bunch of 1 year deals. Cabrera got 1/3.5MM. Bour got 1/3MM. Wilmer Flores 1/4.25MM. Jon Jay was something around 1/5MM. Avisail Garcia was around the same. My guess is that Marwin will get something like 2 years, 12MM. I wonder if Diaz has enough value that we could duct tape him and another decent prospect to Reddick, dump reddicks contract, and bring back Marwin. That opens up RF for tucker, gives us Marwin to play everywhere, and we can even go bargain hunting for OF bat because you just know there will be great one year deals the Astros can get with FA. At 2/12MM, I would be willing to get a little sentimental and bring back Marwin. Keuchel is gonna get at least 3/60MM. I think that’s certainly more than fair value, but I guess I just don’t have enough confidence in Keuchel to bring him back, even at that price tag.
Yeah I think Marwin is looking st somewhere between $6M/1yr and $28M/3yr. If Houston can get him for less than $8M/yr I would be ok with them giving him multiple years. I’m surprised so many on this site are so down on Keuchel. I would be totally fine giving him $80M/5yr, $20M/1yr, or anywhere in between. $40M/2yr, $60M/3yr, or $70M/4yr would a great deal for the Astros in my opinion.
Its just that some (many?) of us feel there a lot more 2016 Keuchels (4.55era/1.286whip) ahead than 2018 Keuchels. The former isn't worth any of those deals.
2016 Keuchel was just unlucky. His xFIp that season was 3.53, right in line with his career number of 3.47. On balance, Keuchel has not been an “ace” on the level of Verlander, but he has consistently been a solid ToR SP for 5 consecutive seasons, fluctuating between an ace (2015) a #2 (2014, 2018), and a #3 (2016, 2017). Sure, if he declines or is unlucky he will not live up to an $80M contract, but it still won’t be a horrible value. Paying $80M and only getting $50M in value isn’t bad as a realistic floor.
My issue is much more visceral. I have zero confidence when Keuchel takes the mound in the playoffs. Good teams can handle him by laying off his pitches and forcing him to come into the zone. He doesn’t miss bats, and that is death in the playoffs. If we are going to spend on SP, I’d rather go ahead and spend more on a verlander or Cole.
He’s pitched better in the postseason than a good deal of ToR arms. Last year was probably his toughest postseason and was still respectable. 10 innings, 3.6 ERA, 8 hits and 3 walks. In 51 career postseason innings, he has a 3.31 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 48:16 k:bb...he hasn’t been the problem. That’s a big enough sample with a good enough showing to have legitimate playoff success. People may have their qualms about him moving forward, but playoff performance shouldn’t be one. I would be ecstatic to bring him back at 4y/70m. He may not be a #1 but he shores up our team perfectly.
That’s 17.5 mil per year. We are roughly 29 mil under the luxury cap. Do you really want to invest all but 11.5 mil of our cap space on Keuchel? I want our $ spent on something with more upside. I believe in our young arms and I don’t want to give Keuchel 4 years of what I predict will be some of his declining years.
I hope Luhnow heard Verlander's comments about not being opposed to an extension and called his agent tonight. 2 years 56 million with a 3rd year option for 25 million or a 4 million dollar buyout. Get it done. If Happ is worth 17 million a year then so is Keuchel. Someone else can pay him that for 4 years.
Verlander is making 28 mill this year. I don’t know why he would negotiate something less than that at this point of the season.
I was including your option for 25. So basically this is a one year extension with an option year and buyout. I think he’d slam the door on this offer.
Verlander is looking for a 4-5 year deal most likely. I think honestly 4 years/90 million might get it done due to his age. Both sides know that his performance could fall off a cliff at any time due to his age...so extending Verlander prior to the season is not without risk for the Astros. I would roll the dice and do 4/90 extension if I was Luhnow, all things being equal. This puts JV in an Asto uniform through 2023, and well into his late 30s.
Given Verlander's recent performance, I'd say the deal starts at 28 mil/year for a min of 4 years (including this year). I think management wants to see how he performs this year before they discuss an extension.
If we could extend verlander for 4 years, 100MM or Keuchel for 4 years 75MM or 3 years 60MM, that’s an easy choice. Get Verlander
I’d love both of those guys back at that price. The years are the important thing. I feel pretty certain Marwin can replicate numbers for two more seasons and Keuchel for three. Beyond that is a gamble. Diaz is a great hitter who can play five positions with four years of club control. He’s not the first option I’d consider dealing on the Astros. If Tucker rakes in ST. He should get the starting RF spot. I don’t think Reddick has trade value but as a fourth outfielder he’d be way more valuable than Marisnick and Kemp. Chirinos/Stassi Gurriel/Altuve/Correa/Bregman/White/Diaz/Marwin Tucker/Springer/Brantley/Reddick. Marwin or Diaz in LF
Keuchal and Marwin resigned by the Astros would be the downfall of this team. Those two guys would almost certainly mean Verlander and Cole are gone and maybe more
I have a feeling the Dodgers aren’t all in on Harper because they have targeted Cole in the future. Southern California kid and all.
Honestly, one of the most impressive things JL has done is setting up the books for the oncoming years. HOU's 25 man rosters in 2020 and 2021 are only on the hook for 66M (18th overall) and 29M (24th). That's pretty crazy for a team this good. Obviously the rest of the payroll will be made of arbitration-eligible players, but what else could you ask for? That's pretty absurd. The FO really hasn't outsourced needs on the market that often. I think HOU will be able to retain a good number of key guys for a while, partially because of their ability to keep things in house more often than not. Call me crazy, but I don't think keeping all of JV, DK, and Springer is out of question. At the beginning of the offseason, that seemed unthinkable. But if DK really doesn't see the offer he wants...watch out. If we can nab him at a reasonable price, we absolutely should. DK would be an essential cog for a team losing both Morton and LBJ's innings, and with a handful of unproven young arms in the system. The price has to be right, but it seems feasible. And, all things considered, DK would be good insurance for 2 things: the eventual loss of Cole, and the grooming of Whitley/James//et. al. DK isn't ancient. He's 31. think DK has another 2-3 strong years ahead of him. I think he'll come out in 2019 particularly motivated as well. And our younger pitchers aren't going to be studs immediately. Keeping DK would really help those young arms transition to the majors. JV and Springer will be harder to keep than DK, but we have the payroll set up to absorb some of these guys' contracts. Crane has talked a really big game. I don't see him skimping, but I guess time will tell.
