Luhnow spoke very highly of him... and he's lived up to the draft position thus far (something Appel never did). If he is moved, it would be for a really big fish... at a position of need that could potentially put this team over the top.
It would have to be a big fish (assuming Bregman doesn't take a step back). However it isn't really that unlikely. The Astros could move him if Moran really plays well and if they use his for someone like Fernandez from Miami.
Perhaps... they could also move Moran if they believe Bregman to be the superior player. Moran actually has to play well in the big leagues for them to consider trading Bregman, IMO. I also don't see Alex taking a step back... he's going to obliterate AA pitching to start the year, and force the Astros hand if there's an injury (or just general non-productiveness with the Valbuena/Marwin platoon). I bet he has a decent camp/ST as well.
Thought we gave up too much for Giles. Liked the Gómez deal. Hader was up to 98 in the fall league. Liked Velasquez more than appel. Said apple is not strong enough mentally. Out of Musgrove, Paulino and martes he thought martes had the best chance of being up this year in the bullpen. Bregman overlooked because he was sandwiched between Swanson and Rodgers. Bergman could hit his way to the majors quick, maybe at third base. Not a big fan of Moran. Subpar defense and limited power. Tucker and Cameron are a toss up. Tucker higher upside, Cameron more sure bet. If you need a corner of go with tucker, up the middle go with Cameron. Cameron doesn't wow you. Does everything well. Scouts got Cameron fatigue since he was talked about for so many years. Reed is the real deal. Singleton better look over his shoulder. Reed needs to learn to hit more advanced off speed stuff and hit lefties. Kemp more of a utility guy. Has the little guy game. Can't think of anything else. If you go to the podcast, its like 20 minutes in.
In regards to Alex Bregman, his versatility really works in his favor. If you can handle SS, you can pretty much handle any position except CF and C. I could see him getting called up in the Ben Zobrist role of everyday utility man. We already have 3 other guys than can slide over to CF. So basically if anybody gets hurt, he can take their spot, so he isn't forced to wait for any one position to open up. If he proceeds to succeed offensively then you can give him a regular position heading into the next season. 3B seems to be the most likely, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of the Astros trading Altuve, but only after Bregman has proven himself as an MLB hitter.
Presuming Altuve keeps up something close to his production for the last 2 years... How many players/prospects do you think he'd be worth, given the fact that he's signed the next 3 years for basically a bare minimum contract, even by arbitration years standard? There would be suitors, for sure... I just don't see them giving that sort of asset up (nor do I see them getting as especially when they're as cost conscious as it is. Then there's the fact that if he does keep up his production... Or even has some more post-season success... He's almost assuredly then entrenched as one of the faces of the franchise. I think as of now, odds are more favorable that Altuve will be an Astro lifer (provided he's producing) than not. I agree with the assessment about Bregman. I think he's going to be on this team... Not going to be trade bait. His versatility makes him that much more intriguing than any of their other mid to high level hitting prospects.
I don't think they would trade Altuve until after the 2017 season. It would actually be a long term cost control measure. If Altuve can maintain his recent production, he is gonna be in for a massive contract, just like Keuchel, Springer and Correa. I just don't see us having the spending power to have four 200 million dollar contracts on the roster. Tough decisions will have to be made. This isn't me expecting it to happen, in fact I would see it as unlikely. But if some dominoes fall a certain way I could see it happening. If Moran locks down 3rd, Correa at SS, using Altuve as the centerpiece to add a stud pitcher or outfielder might be the pragmatic move. Still a ton of if's involved before I would even consider it a possibility.
Why 2017? Astros have TEAM options in 2018 and 2019 worth only $6 million each. Going into this year, he's locked into a 4 year 20.5 million dollar contract... For his PRIME years... Which is an absolute steal, probably the biggest steal/value contract in all of MLB. Seeing how he's not going to be a free agent (unless the Astros don't want him anymore) till 2020, and also seeing that he may be extendable prior to that at less than market rate (simply based on his willingness to negotiate the prior contract), again, I don't see a trade happening any time soon. The most likely scenario is that his production may start to decline by 2020, and the Astros simply let him go to free agency (provided they have his replacement already groomed), or they attempt to extend him to a higher rate prior to those team option years (but not exorbitantly high), which given the low base value of those years, the Altuve camp may play ball (if he was a football player, he'd be holding out for a higher contract NOW). Also, I doubt Moran is going to factor into these decisions at the moment... He's been mentioned quite a bit here, but I'm not even sure the Astros/Luhnow envision him as the defacto 3B of the future. He'll be promoted if he does well... I just think most of the scouting reports on him have been pretty spot-on thus far (going back to the original reasons the Marlins traded him), not to mention he's going to have to stay healthy for a full minor league season, let alone a major league season.
This is the last post I'll make on this topic because I think it is merely a possibility, and unlikely to happen, so this is one one of the more pointless discussions. I say 2017 because I would need to see extended proof of Bregman and possibly Moran's success before you would part with a proven player like Altuve. Bregman at 3rd seems to be the most likely scenario. We are going to lose people in free agency. Talented, still young, excellent players that we would otherwise really want to keep. The costs of keeping them all around are simply gonna be too high. If we have a replacement lined up (Bregman in this case), I don't think it should be out of line if we trade one of them early to address a possible other area of need at the major league level instead of merely letting them walk.
Where the hell are you getting "four 200 million dollar contracts"? Pushing it at even one "200 million dollar contract". If they gave Keuchel 30 mil for 6 yrs that's 180 mil. Springer 20-25 mil over 6 yrs that's 120-150 mil. Correa certainly will be a 200 mil contract, but that's not coming anytime soon.
I think those contracts are about there current value. Keuchel enters free agency with a couple more cy youngs sure he will get better offers.
Considering Kershaw made $32 million in 2015 and $25 million would have made Springer the highest paid position player in 2015, those are reasonable offers. I really like Springer, but (mostly due to injuries) he has done nothing to justify $25 million/year.
Point understood... I still don't think you risk trading a guy who's due to make only $12 million dollars over the last two years of his contract (which runs to 2020), unless you're essentially using him to replenish the farm system (i.e. - hitting reset), or he ends up regressing to not even be worth that much (which is highly unlikely). The odds of the Astros getting equal MLB value for Altuve around that time (both in terms of skill along with dollar-for-dollar salary value) is highly unlikely... hence why I mentioned that it would be far easier to sell him to a contending team for prospects (presuming that the Astros are not contending... which would be disappointing). The concern on how the Astros plan to sign a lot of quality homegrown players to extensions is valid... however I don't think you start by trading uber-cheap years of one of said quality homegrown players.
Then they can go. Giving $200M to guys over 30 will generally backfire. Heyward got 8/$184 and he is 26 (different skillset, but best FA OF). Keuchel has even less of a comparable, because most guys with his performance have better stuff. Largely it will depend on how salaries grow over the next 3 years, and how they perform.
Most big-market teams know this. They're basically paying for prime years at the beginning of the deal, and they're conceding regression/worthlessness towards the end and willing to take on that dead money for the reward of possible immediate returns. It can work in a win-now type of mindset... provided that the fan base will be ok with jettisoning players for prospects (and hitting reset) if the plan fails. We've seen Toronto, Boston, Detroit, and New York (both teams) go through iterations of this in their down years.
This is why you sign Doug Fister now and you give up a few top 15 prospects for Giles...A few years before the big contracts start coming in, you can also include the Gomez deal as a factor also. Go for it now and try to win a championship now. Astros are to a point where there farm system is still very wrong even after giving up quite a few good prospects in just the last year. Then you add this year's MLB amateur draft (2016) to stock pile the farm system even more & the Astros have set up themselves up now for the present and for the distant future to be really good.
Keuchel has the fact that he is the first one to hit the market working in his favor when it comes to keeping him long term. 1 year before Altuve, 2 before Springer, and 3 before Correa and McCullers. You could have the bulk of his deal out of the way before the contracts start to mount. But like any pitcher after 30, you are likely risking having to eat 1 or 2 years of highly paid unproductivity at the end, which I don't think we will do. The more likely scenario is that we concentrate on keeping most of the hitters, and use trades and the farm system to find our futures aces. If we want to keep this machine perpetually rolling pragmatic choices will have to be made. Although part of me hopes we have had enough success by then that Crane is willing to keep this a top 10 payroll that moves into the top 5 on occasion and not a perpetual mid-market payroll, so that we can better absorb risky contracts.
