Sure they would now, would be buying out arbitration years Everyone saying let them go if they want more than that 1) must be assuming contracts don't continue to grow 2) would be complaining loud if we let those guys go With TV dollars and a new CBA coming, salaries aren't going to level off over the next 5 years
That's a pretty silly mentality... Basically you think they'll be unwilling to pay any quality pitcher market rate (both in salary and in years) beyond the age of 30.... When the reality is that mostly all contending teams do this (and the ones that don't... Like the A's and Rays have shown to have limited windows along with jilted fan bases). There's really nothing to suggest that the contending/spending team's strategy fails them... And nothing to suggest the small market mindset is better. I don't think they'll operate with that extreme small-market mindset. Like anything else, it's going to be situation and pitcher specific. If they're contending, Dallas is still pitching at a high level, and the only way they can retain Keuchel is to given him the years/dollars he deserves/wants... I would be dissapointed if they passed. Even the Cardinals ended up retaining Carpenter/Wainwright (with full knowledge of possible regression/injuries) because the fact remains that aces don't grow on trees, despite how much depth your minor league system may have. It's also no secret that this organization, despite its strong farm, still lacks projectable/sure-fire ace-type pitchers. Doesn't mean they can't find them, but it will likely be a patient process (much like it was with Keuchel). Their approach in the draft as of late, and their willingness to go after Hammel last year, actually suggests they'll probably try to find pitching on the market/trades... And try to replace hitters through the farm. Their best bet with Dallas would be to lock him into a multi-year deal now, prior to his arbitration years finishing, and retain some prime years at a decent rate... Along with some +30 years (but less so than if you wait till free agency).
Contracts will grow... But not at an exponential rate as you're suggesting. The $200 million dollar deals are still going to be reserved for the absolute best of the best. Even the biggest market teams are making pragmatic choices on who they give those sorts of deals to now, and who is being forced to take smaller/short-term deals as their only offers (see Cespedes, who was forced to essentially take a 1 year deal, and try again next year).
That's what I'm hoping happens with Keuchel. That we sign him to say a 7/200 type contract before next season. That would cover all of his prime years and limit the back end risk. It would also guarantee him of the big payday that he might risk if he just plays out his last 2 years. If Dallas gets to free agency maintaining his recent performance he will probably be in line for a titanic contract that will take him into his late 30's, it would also likely require owing him close to 100 million after the age of 35, and I wouldn't blame the Astros for balking at that. Paying a guy in his 30's doesn't concern me, it's when they get to the mid-30's that it becomes a concern.
This is of course assuming they follow their recent career path, which is obviously a huge assumption and certainly not a guarantee. And factoring in the growing market, star contracts aren't getting cheaper. 30 million isn't market value for an ace pitcher in 2016, it certainly won't be in 2019. If he maintains his last 2 years over the next 3, Keuchel will be closer to 35 million. Springer and Altuve probably won't get to 200, but they will be close Springer hasn't stayed healthy, that's the giant issue for him. But when he has played, he already shows that he could very well be a 5-6 WAR player. Justin Upton got 22 million in 2016, and he's only a 3-4 WAR type player. If (a big if) Springer is able to maintain or improve upon his 2015 numbers, and stay healthy he will easily command 25 million plus given what the market is likely to be in 2021. If (again big if) Altuve maintains his recent 5 WAR production, when he hits Free Agency at only 29 he's going to command a similar type deal.
Cespedes took a 3 year deal. It is only a 1 year deal if he plays well enough to get more (i.e. gets best of both worlds, security of 3 years, ability to take advantage of inflation of 1 year deal) and he can see how CBA goes. He also turned down a 5 year deal to Nats due to preference for NY. Granted, rumor has it Nats have a bad clubhouse reputation among players.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> linked to Lucroy here. Worth noting Cafardo is the same guy who (correctly) linked HOU/Fister last week. <a href="https://t.co/9csANAbXsT">https://t.co/9csANAbXsT</a></p>— Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) <a href="https://twitter.com/BenDuBose/status/693848270049652736">January 31, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Hearing his agent speak on his behalf, they fully intend to opt out after this season and try again when there's possibly more teams on the market. Did the Nats offer an opt-out after 1 year? Seeing what the Cespedes camp is saying, sounds like they were more keen on that than anything else (once it was clear he wasn't going to get the deal/years he really wanted). Sure, if he flat-out sucks or is injured, its better than an outright 1 year deal... but this was an action taken because he wasn't getting the desired multi-year dollar amounts he was looking for, coming off a career half-season. Odds are, if he strongly feels he can duplicate that performance for an entire year... some team is going to soften up and give him what he wanted this off-season.
Yeah, finding a way to get Castro's bat into the lineup everyday has clearly been a pressing issue with this team.
That's exactly what I thought when I read that... apparently the Astros highly value Castro's long-term bat, and need to move him out from behind the plate ASAP. But who knows... some catchers switch positions to preserve knees (and maintain their above average hitting)... maybe Castro switches positions to simply improve his hitting. (again, doubtful... he's likely a better defensive catcher than he ever will be a quality hitter again).
Seems crazy to me to change the primary catcher for the AL Cy Young and top 5 rookie pitcher. I like Lucroy but why mess with a good thing?
Because Lucroy is a vastly superior player? Putting Lucroy in the Astros batting order also makes it far more imposing than Captain Whiff.
Maybe we disagree on how good Springer is/will be I think he is going to be one of the best of the best. He brings a lot to the table. Sure, he has had a lot of injury issues and if those continue then that will obviously lessen whatever deal he gets. Take his career numbers and translate it to a 162 game season and you are talking about a 30/20 guy who is a plus defender and by all accounts a great influence on those around him. I'm sure many would disagree, but I think Springer is the spark plug that makes this team what it is
I definitely think the sky's the limit with him also... and he very well could get close to that, provided he stays healthy. The negatives against him are his health and his advanced age at free agency (by contrast, Heyward just hit free agency and he's only a year older than Springer... who won't see free agency for another 5+ years). Some of his current elite skills (basepath speed, gap coverage) will probably not be as elite as he gets older... whereas his power and OBP may improve further with time. Much like Keuchel, I would hope he gets an early extension at a more favorable rate... however we know he's been reluctant to sign any bottom-barrel extension deals as he rightly bet on himself that he'll likely make more in his arbitration years.
