[Zierlein] Dwight Howard doesn't want you Houston, so let's move on

Brooklyn won't have max cap room after the Johnson deal. Neither will the Clippers, once Griffin is given his max extension. There's already $19 mil committed between Butler/Jordan, and you're looking at $30 mil, minimum, between Paul and Griffin. In other words, you're practically at $50 mil for only four players. Not happening.

Howard can try to force a S&T from Houston, but I think the Rockets can call his bluff. What team with max cap room will be more of an endorsement hotbed than Houston and/or have a better chance to win? I'm not seeing it. It's not Brooklyn or LAC. I'm not ignoring the existence of media hotbeds - I'm just pointing out that none will have the cap room to make a deal happen.

 

Dh wants t win a ring. That is the only way he stays anywhere. He doesn't believe Houston is close to winning a ring. He will leave ASAP.

Do not get Dwight Howard. Huge mistake.

 

What team with 2013 cap room will be closer to winning a ring?

 

He's unhappy because the roster around him in Orlando is garbage. The surrounding talent in Houston is much better already, and I have a lot of faith in Morey to place capable role players around him.

As for Brooklyn, Dwight hasn't "made it known" for years. He's done it for months because he's almost at free agency, and prior to this week, the Nets had the potential cap room to get a deal done. If he re-signs, he won't demand to be traded because he won't have any leverage. He's not an idiot.

 

I will give until next weekend when we officially know whether restricted free agents are going to be matched. But if Orlando hasn't trade him by then forget it. Also, I'm a little worried that Morey is collecting all these assets to offer but who are the Rockets bidding against? I don't think Orlando should be in a position to be asking for the world in return Howard.

 

Atlanta and Dallas are possibilities, but I agree. Call his bluff. It's our best chance to be relevant any time soon.

 

Boom daddy. Excellent point. It doesn't matter where you are, if you are popular and people LIKE you, the endorsements will be there. Dwight has a PR problem right now, kinda like Lebron had for a while, kinda like Kobe had for a while. It will take him a bit to get past it but he can do it.

The one single endorsement that has motivated Dwight to try to get to Brooklyn has been the Adidas endorsement. Allegedly, he could make twice the money from them in a major market. But you have to remember, that is twice the money he could make in ORLANDO. Probably no where near twice the amount of money he could make in Houston. When you combine that with leaving over $57 million on the table if he doesn't sign a birds rights contract, there is reason and hope to believe he most likely won't walk on us.

 

Dwight has more issues than just the whining about EVERYTHING off the court. He has motivation issues on the court.

Are you comparing Kobe's competitive drive with Dwight Howard's?

You and I both know your throwing a straw man out there and that the point I'm trying to make about Dwight is valid.

 

Thoughts on Dwight Howard Trade

If Houston trades for Dwight Howard, we would end up sending a couple of draft picks, Scola and Martin, The Astrodome, and whatever other assets we possess.

We use Howard for the year, and I have a feeling we miss the playoffs because we don't have good enough players around him to be competitive.

What happens next year in free agency for Dwight Howard?

First of all, what teams have the cap room to sign Dwight Howard outright that Dwight would want to play for? LA? Brooklyn? NY? Chicago? Dallas? Philadelphia? Dwight Howard will want the max contract(around $25 million a year and the max years) and all of these teams will be so far over the luxury tax that they will not be able to afford him.

What teams currently can pay out a max contract? Houston, Indiana, Charlotte, Utah. Sounds like a bunch of mid-market to lower-market teams. I do not believe any of these teams are on Dwight's VIP list. Definately not enough spotlight here.

If I am Dwight and I still want to play for Brooklyn or NY, but now they have salary constraints, what can I do. Sign and trade. Houston, as being his former employer can add the additional year on a contract for Dwight Howard and then trade him to his preferred team. Houston in return would need to take some players with large (preferably expiring) contracts back plus draft picks from Dwight's preferred team to reduce that teams salary figures.

1. In this situation, the Rockets play Dwight Howard a year and then after that year receive players and picks from his preferred team.

2. Another situation is that Dwight Howard falls in love with Houston and decides to take the max contract that we offer him and then we build around him.

3. The third situation is that he leaves after the year to another team with no sign and trade. That team has a chest full of salary cap room and Houston receives nothing in return.

Of the three scenarios, I believe that the first scenario is what we will experience. Dwight wants to go to Brooklyn and the only way for Brooklyn to acquire Howard currently is through a sign and trade.

 

I think Zierlein is exactly right here and I agree. Cap room isn't a good reason either, as it's hard to predict how these teams will attempt to get that room a year from now. And really, it's not the kind of situation any team should want to be in, to hold a player hostage because other teams can't yet pay for him. A guy who doesn't want to be here forced to be on the team? How is that going to work out for anyone.

Z is right, he doesn't want to be here and he'll probably play like it. A ****ty one year rental where we sell the house makes less and less sense as this drags on, particularly with the roster changes that have happened at this point.

 

Like it or not, I still believe Howard will be a Rocket. I also believe he will sign an extension no matter what he's saying now.

cmiller

 

If you don't think this roster makes the playoffs, you have no understanding of basketball. I mean, compare that to the Jazz or Mavs from this past season. It's night and day. That team compares very favorably to the '09 Rockets, which were on the 4/5 line (nearly a 2) and had a legit shot to win it all prior to Yao's injury.

C: Howard/Asik
PF: Scola/Motiejunas/White
SF: Parsons/White/Richardson
SG: Lee/Richardson
PG: Brooks/Livingston

I'm baffled at how you came to this conclusion, considering you seem to understand the dynamics at play. In order to get a trade to Brooklyn in this scenario, Howard would have to have Daryl Morey convinced that he would walk away from $30 million to sign with Indiana, Charlotte, or Utah. Do you really think Morey would blink over those clubs?

Sign and trades happen under two conditions: when the team receiving the star player has the cap room (i.e. leverage) to theoretically make a deal happen without one, or when the receiving team puts assets on the table that the original team has interest in. Neither of those is the case with New Jersey next summer. Dwight may or may not re-sign with the Rockets, but there's next-to-zero shot that he gets a S&T to Brooklyn.

 

I had thought about this too. I think the best case scenario would be he re-signs and wants to play here. But even if he whines and demands a trade, the key is we'd have him re-signed and locked up on a contract. This wouldn't be that bad IMO because at least we would have him locked up on a contract that we could trade for greater value. Think of what you could possibly get in trading DH locked up on a long term contract to multiple teams that would bid for his services without the risk of him walking out on them in free agency.

 

If we covet Dwight, and he decides to leave, do we have the ability to S&T, or any other leverage to make it worth the risk?

 

thats what i was thinking. Look at the camby situation. We may actaully be able to get something valuable from him. It all depends on the market at the time.

S&T from brooklyn. we may be able to at least get a 1st pick to make up for some of the first picks that we missed out on.

 

Both sides have risks, but worse case scenario Les is forced to tank if he wants to or not, which up to this point he has not been willing to do. The main factors for trading for Dwight are:
1) His number one location in the Nets no longer has the cap space to straight up sign him. Unlike Lebron and Bosh with Miami, Dwight can't just leave and go to New Jersey next year. I imagine there aren't alot of teams who will have cap space and be more attractive. Perhaps Dallas? It's argueable they will be more attractive unless they do something big. They lost Terry and Kidd from a mediocre team and will be asking Dirk to give another year in the prime of his career in the chance of getting Chris Paul and or Dwight next year. Or they make some moves this offseason and lose some of that cap space. Atlanta will have the space, but Dwight doesn't seem to be any more excited about there than he does Houston. Other than that? Certainly no Miami/Lakers/Oklahoma City/Knicks like location.
2) Unlike Orlando, we should have the cap space to add another superstar next year, pending how many bad contracts we have to take back from Orlando, which is potentially the biggest stumbling block keeping the trade from going down.
3) Deron Williams didn't exactly go to his dream team in New Jersey. Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace is argueably worse than the teams he had when Utah was going to the western confernce finals. The Nets just came off a terrible year and didn't even manage to trade for Dwight and Deron still resigned.
4) Teams haven't had the guts to play chicken with the players and call their bluff on leaving the money on the table. If the Rockets do the trade, you can bet they will.
5) The Rockets hope that with no other clear cut favorite available to sign him as an unrestricted free agent, that Dwight follows Deron's example and tries to get another star to come join him, rather than trying to go join another star.

On the flip side:

1) We are trading a bunch of assets for the right to be in the situation Orlando is trying to get out of right now.
2) Who knows how long Dwight will "rehab" from his injury if he goes to a team he doesn't want to be in.
3) His attitude and effort even if he does get back on the court in a prompt time period could be disasterous. It's hard to imagine he would be smiling and happy at the press conference to introduce him, and he could become a night mare employee who is breaking or bending all the rules in an effort to make us get rid of him. Of course there was the same risk for the Nets with Deron Williams.
4) If one of the assets you trade for becomes a star that certainly will be a hard point for slamming Morey and the Rockets, especially if you do lose Dwight after a year.
5) If Dwight leaves, you are delaying the rebuild process by several years. Of course if he stays you are speeding it up probably 4+ years.

There is enough good and bad from both sides that I would be happy with either situation. Certainly the ceiling in the near future is much higher with Dwight, but so is the potential risk. Either way we are unlikely to be picking 14 next year.

 

One thing I'm entirely convinced of is the argument that there won't be very many teams with cap room next year to sign him out right. From now until next years free agency, I find it hard to believe that there aren't GMs out there savy enough to clear cap space. Pair that with the reality that there are some pretty incompetent GMs out there to facilitate such moves, and it might be that this time next year we're looking at a few teams with cap space to sign DH that we're considering now.

 

True. But both NY teams can't clear cap space. Nor can either LA teams(unless Clippers lose CP3). I'll take my chances that Howard isn't going to pass up $30mil to join a team like Indiana.

 

I'm sure there will be more teams that clear cap space, but will they have assets the Rockets lack? That's the question. Atlanta, for example, has recently made those moves. But they're no more of an endorsement hotbed than Houston, and like the Rockets, they also lack a star. So why would Dwight take $30 million less for a similar or worse scenario?

The Heat in 2010 made it work because they had both a sexy market and a superstar already there in his prime. If a similar scenario transpires for next summer, then the Rockets (if they have Dwight) could be in trouble. However, it seems doubtful.