Zach Lowe: Terrence Jones could be asking for $15M per year

TT said he will sign the QO. If it happens could be good news for us. It will make the supply higher and will take at least one team out of the potential suitors for Jones/DMO.

It also brightly illustrates what the expectations of someone like TT are for next summer. 15+ per.

 

Steph Curry is currently the 5th highest paid player on his team.

It's just the reality of the timing of when guys like Curry and Harden signed.

Those two represent probably the two most valuable contracts in the league going forward the next 2 years.

 

Wasn't Harden's contract a "Max deal" (for him) at the time he signed it ?
Next year if DMo or Jones signed a $15m deal that would be well short of their max.


What we have here is rapid inflation. You simply cannot compare value from three years ago to next year when the cap is making such a large increase over that period of time .
It's a unique situation.
Harden will probably get 35% of the cap in his next deal. That'll be a huge increase from the "max" he was originally signed to.
It would be closer to fair to compare what DMo or Jones is offered next year to that figure , not what he signed after being traded in a very different economic climate.
If the cap jumps to $90m Harden's figure jumps to $31.5m. Basically that deal Morey signed Harden to at the time has become one of the biggest bargain's in the league value wise and the value only increases as the cap increases until it expires.

 

THIS is my point ...

DMo has already proven, over the course of nearly a full season in 2014-15, that he is both an elite NBA rim protector & post-scorer

We KNOW Donut currently:
- possesses at least 2 ELITE NBA skills (and the 2 MOST important for a Big)
- can deploy those skills in significant minutes at the Center position (as a backup and short-term fill-in for Dwight when injured/rested)

TJ currently possesses:
- ZERO ELITE NBA skills (other than ball-handling, at which TJ is clearly NOT elite, can you name even 1 other skill in which TJ is clearly better than DMo?)
- can deploy those skills at PF only (not quick enough for SF, not big/strong enough for C)

Plus, we saw DMo emerge as the 2nd-best player on the team last season, doing more than anyone else on the team (besides Harden) to 'hold the fort' mid-season until reinforcements arrived from the injury list
We saw him partially 'carry' the team for a long stretch of the season as the primary go-to post scorer and paint protector while Dwight and TJ were out with injuries
... we have never seen anything like that from TJ ever

Yes DMo didn't play at all in the 2014 (thanks McHale) & 2015 (injury) playoffs, so his playoff impact is still completely unknown ...
I'll gladly take his unknown over the known impact TJ has made on the team the past 2 post-seasons ...

For DMo to prove himself a poorer playoff performer than TJ .... I'm not really sure what that looks like?
What can a starter do in 2 straight playoffs to look worse than losing his starting job both times?!?
Only a Rondo-like meltdown and dismissal comes to mind, and that's never going to happen with DMo

Seriously Malakas ... in your mind, what would DMo have to do in the 2016 & 2017 playoffs to NOT out-perform TJ's playoff resume to date?
TJ has set the bar so low, only Rondo comes to mind as a more-disappointing 'starter' on a playoff team over the past 2 seasons

 

Neither has Enes Kanter or Reggie Jackson. Didn't stop their teams from having to pony up and pay them 18 mil a year respectively.

The whole argument that Jones is trash because he didn't out-perform NBA SUPERSTARS (not just good to really good players but legit stars), is erroneous and has no valid point other than just finding some reason to point to Jones and say "He's not good because of this".

Actually whether he's good or not doesn't really even matter. The whole argument started with Zach Lowe and co. talking about the ultra crazy spending spree going on now and that will continue to go into next Summer where these type of young players are going to continue to command a ton of money for good reasons. These young players are NOT getting paid what they are worth today, but what teams think they will be worth in the future... big difference.

Free agency market value & playoff success have very very little to do with each other. Its a stupid stupid argument to even entertain jousting with.

Jalen Rose says it best when he says you are worth what you have the power to negotiate with.

Terrence Jones, D-Mo, and virtually every young free agent next year will have a hell of alot of power to negotiate with next Summer until the money dries up.

 

People really believe DMo was the 2nd best player on the team last year?

And that he's an elite rim protector?

Smh

 

During the season when half the team was injured he MIGHT HAVE been the 2nd most important player on the team, but this is during a time when the likes of Joey Dorsey and Papanikolaou were starters.

D-Mo had a really, really great stretch I think between December and February. Also before he really hit his stride offensively, he was STATISTICALLY showed very well (top 10 for a part of the season I believe) until that stat dropped off quite fast with an increased load to carry offensively later in the season.

But folks are getting a little carried away here with what he's proven vs. Jones. And the funny thing is the same people that pump up D-Mo vs. Jones point to Jones' lackluster playoff performances as some sort of vindication that Jones is trash.... while D-Mo has proven what exactly in the playoffs thus far???

I love D-Mo's talent, and I want him on the roster longterm to grow into a larger role, but the point is still the same with him and Jones at this point... with really only 2 seasons of data to show for each player at their young ages, and such small roles, its a gamble either way to pick between which guy will have the more successful NBA career.

I personally think the Rockets will gamble on Motiejunas if you they truly had to only choose one now, but that point is pretty stupid now as well. Who says the Rockets have to pick JUST ONE right now if ever???

As always this argument gets older and older, and more warn out. Have a good day folks, and continue the merry go round of the insane.

 

No I don't believe he was the 2nd best player on the team last year , he was arguably 4th best behind Harden , Howard & Ariza. (an argument could be made that he was 3rd).

At one time last season both Howard & DMo were in the top 4 in opponents FG% at the rim. Neither finished there because they missed time with injuries and didn't qualify statistically. Does that qualify him as an elite rim protector ?

The timing of their impending FA plays a big role in their value .... I could easily see DMo getting $15m next season .... if Harden were to hit FA he would get ~$31.5m but he's locked up for two more years under a contract signed during the old TV deal where there was much less $$$.

Think of these numbers as a percentage of the cap in the years that they were signed rather than just their actual dollar value. DMo will be getting a smaller percentage of the cap from a much larger cap.

 

Not really ...


For a couple of stretches while Dwight was out (GMs #12-22 & 45-70) DMo did become the 2nd most-important player on the team (besides Harden)

Ariza was close with his consistent, excellent perimeter D, but during that stretch he was also in a horrid shooting slump that lasted for months (<40% from the field & <30% from 3pt) ... a negative offensively, which was never the case for DMo in 2014-15

Without DMo as a reliable post-scorer, no way Harden has enough help to get the #2 seed with Dwight and TJ missing over half the season

And ELITE rim protector is over-hype on my part I'll admit
He's not even a good shot-blocker (TJ is admittedly much better), but his positional defense, size, and willingness to contest any shot are all clear advantages for him over TJ

Here's his final reg season ranks on the team (among players who played at least half the season):
MP - 2037 (3rd)
PTS - 855 (3rd)
FG% - 50.4 (1st)
FG Made - 353 (3rd - 13 fewer than Ariza in almost 1000 fewer minutes)
2pt FG Made - 304 (2nd)
2pt FG% - 53.6 (1st)
3pt FG% - 36.8 (3rd)
ORB - 137 (1st)
TRB - 421 (3rd)
Also ranked 3rd on team in O, D, & Tot WS (behind Harden & Ariza)

I'm not saying DMo IS the 2nd best Rocket, but arguably he was in the conversation from Nov 2014 until Mar 2015 - over a full half a season
When have you ever been able to say that about TJ during any extended stretch of his career?

 

THIS. Its called DMO-INSANITY lol.

 

You need to post better stats than raw counting numbers.

I agree DMo is a solid defender, but he doesn't contest many, if any, shots. He mostly plays positional defense and tries to draw charges.

 

Not to outperform??? Jones by virtue of playing has already outperformed DMO's non existant playoff performance.
As for what it will take first of all HEALTH. I'm optimistic about him coming back however this surgery he had is no joke.
For normal people who are no top athletes this surgery is extremely serious (speaking from personal experience with family member ) AND more importantly it can after a few years be non effective if the nerves continue to get affected and the symptoms reappear.

BTW all your posts prove at this point is that DMO will be even more expensive than the ~15 per it will take to sign Jones. His max will be 20 so what you are in essence saying is that DMO will cost what? 18-19?

Exactly. Enes Kanter a guy with a historically bad defence who can't pass and is a black hole and he got a nice max.
Reggie Jackson a guy who can't shoot and at a position that is the deepest in the league.

Another example I will give you. Monroe. Who is very comparable to DMO had 4 teams pursuing him for his max of 17 per.
And all those were THIS summer when not every single team had capspace.

 

Yes .. but once again ...
- DMo has never played a playoff game
- TJones has lost his starting PF job IN MID-PLAYOFFS!!! ... and 2 years in a row!!!

He is now essentially the Jeremy Lin (replaced mid-series vs OKC by PBev) of Rockets PFs ...
Remember last off-season how desperate Morey was to NOT pay JLin $15M in 2014-15???


This is not my opinion ... McHale's 2013-14-15 playoff rotation clearly states to me, you and everyone else that this is FACT!:
During the playoffs, his coach has no choice but to BENCH TJ to improve his team's chances to win

Let me state that again ... TJ's current NBA coach has decided, 2 years in a row, that the Rockets playoff chances are BETTER when TJ does not play so much

That is the only stat I will ever need to defend my point about TJ vs DMo ... and it's backed up by the on-court decisions of an NBA HoF Power Forward whose job was on the line with every decision he made

 

There wasn't a TJ vs DMO debate in this thread. Only you started one.

 

YES ... exactly
OP's title is "TJ asking for $15M per year"

My only point in all of this was to say that DMo at $15M per year makes sense to me, and I could see a valid argument for why Morey would agree and make that kind of offer to him

However, TJ at $15M per year makes ZERO sense to me, and I see no way Morey would offer him anything close to that ... EVER


Why? ... well, just look at what happened the last time Morey was faced with paying a Rocket $15M in a season after said player lost his starting job in the playoffs 2 straight seasons ...

I can't remember, but exactly how much did DM pay the Lakers to take Lin?
And that was when the better options at PG were PBev, Jet and rookies like Canaan/Nick

I guess we'll all be proven right or wrong 1 year from now when it all shakes out next offseason ...
Until then, I'll be looking forward to the 3RD TJ playoff benching, coming soon this Spring at a Toyota Center near you!

Ugh sequels ... SO PREDICTABLE

 

Milos, you don't have to bold multiple lines in all of your post.

 

OK ...

Via 82games, I found 44 total NBA players from 2014-15 who both:
- played at least 50 games
- faced at least 6 OPP FGA at Rim per Game

Out of those 44, DMo ranks 22nd in OPP FG% at Rim with 48.9%

This despite playing a huge chunk of the season out of position at C while Dwight was out
Early in the year, before Dwight went down, he was ranked in the top 4-8 when playing mostly against other PFs

As expected, he is ranked far behind several truly ELITE rim protectors:
Gobert, Ibaka, Bogut, Hibbert, Noel, Duncan, Drummond, DeAndre

But he does clearly keeps company with some ELITE Def big men:
20 - A Davis
21 - S Adams
22 - DMo
23 - A Len
24 - M Gasol

And surprisingly, he ranks well ahead of others:
26 - Al Horford
27 - Tyson Chandler
29 - Omer Asik
31 - Joakim Noah


Here's the complete list:

NAME - GP - MPG - OPP FGM at Rim PG - OPP FGA at Rim PG - OPP FG% at Rim
1 Rudy Gobert - 82 - 26.3 - 3.4 - 8.3 - 40.4%
2 Serge Ibaka - 64 - 33.1 - 3.8 - 9.3 - 40.8%
3 Andrew Bogut - 66 - 23.5 - 3 - 7.2 - 41.4%
4 Roy Hibbert - 76 - 25.3 - 3.2 - 7.6 - 42.6%
5 Derrick Favors - 74 - 30.8 - 3.2 - 7.2 - 43.8%
6 LaMarcus Aldridge - 71 - 35.4 - 2.7 - 6.1 - 45.1%
7 Nerlens Noel - 74 - 30.8 - 4.3 - 9.5 - 45.4%
8 Jonas Valanciunas - 80 - 26.2 - 3.8 - 8.1 - 46.5%
9 Josh Smith - 83 - 27.7 - 3.2 - 6.8 - 46.7%
10 John Henson - 66 - 18.3 - 3.3 - 7 - 46.8%
11 Tim Duncan - 77 - 29 - 4.3 - 9.1 - 46.9%
12 Draymond Green - 78 - 31.6 - 2.9 - 6.1 - 46.9%
13 DeMarcus Cousins - 59 - 33.9 - 4.1 - 8.7 - 47.0%
14 Timofey Mozgov - 81 - 25.3 - 3.5 - 7.4 - 47.5%
15 Pau Gasol - 78 - 34.3 - 4.9 - 10.3 - 48.0%
16 Andre Drummond - 82 - 30.5 - 4.3 - 8.9 - 48.0%
17 Robin Lopez - 59 - 27.8 - 4.2 - 8.8 - 48.0%
18 DeAndre Jordan - 82 - 34.4 - 4.2 - 8.7 - 48.5%
19 Marcin Gortat - 82 - 29.9 - 3.8 - 7.8 - 48.6%
20 Anthony Davis - 68 - 36.2 - 3.5 - 7.1 - 48.6%
21 Steven Adams - 70 - 25.2 - 3.3 - 6.7 - 48.8%
22 Donatas Motiejunas - 70 - 28.7 - 3.1 - 6.4 - 48.9%
23 Alex Len - 69 - 22 - 3.8 - 7.8 - 49.2%
24 Marc Gasol - 81 - 33.2 - 3.7 - 7.5 - 49.4%
25 Brook Lopez - 72 - 29.2 - 4.3 - 8.6 - 49.7%
26 Al Horford - 76 - 30.4 - 3.7 - 7.4 - 49.8%
27 Tyson Chandler - 75 - 30.5 - 4.8 - 9.5 - 50.9%
28 Miles Plumlee - 73 - 16.4 - 3.1 - 6.1 - 51.0%
29 Omer Asik - 76 - 26.1 - 4.1 - 8.1 - 51.1%
30 Cole Aldrich - 60 - 16.1 - 3.1 - 6 - 51.4%
31 Joakim Noah - 67 - 30.5 - 3.2 - 6.2 - 51.7%
32 Tyler Zeller - 82 - 21.1 - 3.7 - 7.2 - 51.8%
33 Tristan Thompson - 81 - 26.8 - 3.4 - 6.5 - 52.2%
34 Amir Johnson - 75 - 26.4 - 3.4 - 6.6 - 52.3%
35 Kevin Love - 74 - 33.7 - 3.7 - 7.1 - 52.6%
36 Miles Plumlee - 54 - 18.6 - 3.7 - 7.1 - 52.7%
37 Chris Kaman - 74 - 18.9 - 3.3 - 6.2 - 52.9%
38 Nikola Vucevic - 74 - 34.1 - 4.2 - 7.8 - 53.7%
39 Al Jefferson - 65 - 30.7 - 4 - 7.2 - 54.7%
40 Paul Millsap - 73 - 32.6 - 4.8 - 8.7 - 55.0%
41 Greg Monroe - 69 - 31.1 - 4 - 7.3 - 55.1%
42 Jordan Hill - 70 - 26.8 - 4.2 - 7.5 - 55.4%
43 Mason Plumlee - 82 - 21.3 - 3.5 - 6.4 - 55.5%
44 Gorgui Dieng - 72 - 30.3 - 5.7 - 10.2 - 55.8%

 

Terrence's shooting has not improved. He shoots 32% from everywhere on the court except at the rim. Nothing has changed. Just because he shoots a scant few 3-balls and raises his percentage a couple points from 3 doesn't mean his shooting has improved.

For every 3-ball Terrence shot last season he passed up 4 wide open 3-balls that the defense was giving him. The ball stopped, everything stopped, while Terrence held the rock and tried to entice the defender to play up on him. He distorted many, many possessions and forced us into worse shots because Tererence DOES NOT SPREAD THE DEFENSE OUT! That hurts the whole team.

Terrence shot less 3-balls last season in relation to his shots taken, in relation to per 36 minutes, in relation to possessions than either of his first 2 seasons. He's simply refusing to fire it up. He's basically shooting 40% less volume of 3-balls based on his playing time than he did to start his career. He's gotten more and more hesitant to jack the 3. And that hurts our offense. Because he is being left wide open by the defense while they balance 5 defenders on our other 4 offensive players. You have no idea how much that hurts our offense.


And I haven't even addressed the playoffs yet. Go look at his playoff shooting percentages. That is what Terrence is when the pressure is on. He can't throw it in the ocean when the heat is on.

Seriously, Nick. Jones' shooting has not improved. Gotta watch the games and look at the numbers in a larger context besides just staring at one percentage on a spread sheet.

 

Ok, I get Jones 3pt shooting is in a very low volume, it's a valid point, but i'll will still take 32% on 40 3's a season over nothing.

But you also criticized his rebounding, saying he's mediocre and is going down hill, which is basically a lie. He's a solid rebounder, his rebounding %'s over his last 3 seasons are consistent and he has always played next to elite rebounders. The only bad rebounding show case he has ever had in his career was this years playoff series, but you surely wouldn't value the 17 games he played this off season over the other 136 games played where he rebounded well.

 

Stupid response. Granger would be a better fit here even though he's at the end of the line than Terrence would. BECAUSE when Granger is standing in the corner or at the arc and the ball is swung to him he WILL fire it in volume and he will knock it down in volume and the more he fires it the more accurate and efficient he will be. Because Granger is a SHOOTER. He can shoot the 3-ball and WILL shoot the 3-ball with no hesitation when he catches it and he's open.

That ONE SINGLE ASPECT of Granger's skill-set surpasses the totality of Terrence's multiple talents of which he has mastered none.

A player and a second rounder is Terrence's trade value right now. He might fetch a mid to a little higher 2nd rounder. But not a first.

Are you kidding me? The majority of both Rockets fand and realgm fans from other teams don't know their head from a hole in the ground. There's a reason why they aren't the GM of an NBA team. So, using that to support your argument.....is stupid Malakas. It does not make your case.

No. It would not be catastrophic. We won't match a RFA offer unless it's a value offer that makes sense. However....if we give both of these guys extensions and God forbid DMo doesn't come back from his back injury and Terrence sucks a toilet plunger the whole season....then we're screwed. Not only do we have to try to move an aircraft carrier of salary but we've also got to deal with the poison pill provisions of their extensions. That is absoute stupidity.

If we're going to trade them, we'll trade them b4 their extension date and let another team negotiate their extension OR we'll trade them BEFORE the deadline while they're still on their rookie deal and they still have to go through RFA at the end of the season. It's going to be a lot easier to move Terrence on a $2.5 million 4th year rookie salary with RFA rights than it is going to be to move Terrence when he is extended for 4 years and $60 million. You lose have the trade market when you sign him to an extension. And the trade market from him is already limited.

The stupidest thing Morey could do would be to extend Terrence and HOPE that he can trade him later.

It is not going to happen, Malakas. It's too risky. It's plum stupid risky. We'll either trade Terrence on his rookie deal (most likely) or we'll let him walk. But we ain't extending him at some awful $60+ million. That's plum stupid and it kills our cap flexibility.

Not going to call you r****ded. But your idea to extend both players is r****ded. No question about that.