I didn't vote for that. I think that the Democrats will take the House, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats fell short even of that. I heard an interesting analysis of the political polls on local talk radio today. I couldn't find the report that they referenced online, but here was what it said: In comparing the percentage of registered and likely voters this time to previous, they found that a significantly higher percentage of those identified themselves as registered voters than has been typically seen. They cross-checked this with voter registration rolls, and there wasn't a correlated increase. There was an even bigger increase in the percentage of self-identified registered voters who identified themselves as likely voters. The early turnouts are large, but not to the increase that was shown in the poll analyses. The talk-show host extended this logic to say that the polls were vastly overestimating Democratic votes, as traditionally low voter turnout favors Republicans. This is where his logic breaks down. This election cycle, self-identified registered voters who say they are unlikely to vote are slant Republican. (For the first time in recent memory.) I don't think you can draw any conclusion about outcome from this analysis. Rather, that the political polls are flawed and can not accurately predict outcome (a trend we've been seeing). That or Diebold has rigged the election and guaranteed Republican victory.
I think the Democrats will probably take the house but not by any of these 25-30 seat projections. They'll probably pick up around 16-20 seats and capture the house. They'll also pick up around 3 senate seats. I think they have a decent chance of losing either maryland or new jersey so lets say they pick up 4 seats and lose 1. Pennsylvania and Ohio are looking very good. Conrad Burns keeps acting like a doofus and is looking like he'll lose in Montana but the other races are all tossups. (except Tennessee which is looking like a lock for the republicans) So 3 locks in the senate there for the democrats plus I'll give them one of the tossups (Virginia, Missouri, Rhode Island) so that's 4 seats. And one lost in either Maryland or Rhode Island.
Make that 9. I have 3 reasons. 1. Dems always managed to screw up an easy layup in the past. 2. Liberals are normally lazy or not as "loyal", to go out to vote. 3. There is that electronic voting thing.
I think the Republicans will keep both houses, they will lose a lot of seats in the house, but not enough to turn the tide. On the senate side, depending on turnout, the republicans could lose as many as 3-4 seats, or they could gain a seat or two. I'm a staunch Republican, and I'm not ashamed to admit it. However, the democrats could not seem to really get things together for what should have been an easy victory. The reason '94 was a such a huge success was because the Republicans were able to put up a unifying front with a broad spectrum of ideas that were in a completely different direction from what the democrats were doing at the time. In this election, the democrats couldn't seem to unify on a platform. In Iraq you basically had two different ideas coming from the same party: 1) We're gonna pull out of Iraq immediately. 2) We're gonna do exactly what Bush is doing, only better. I also heard differing stances on the economy and other issues. Also, when it comes right down to it, a bunch of idiots are going to go into the voting booth and push the button for whoever they've heard of the most. Incumbants benefit most from the idiot masses. Campaign Finance Reform (I.E. the incumbant protection act) insures that incumbants get the most name recognition.
Election Day poll results - Texas Governor's race These were taken from different sites around the state today: KSAT - San Antonio (ABC Television Station) Kinky - 31% Strayhorn - 28% Perry - 20% Bell - 19% Werner - 2% KTSA - San Antonio AM Talk Radio Kinky - 35% Bell - 23% Strayhorn - 20% Perry - 19% Werner - 3% NBC5I.com - Channel 5 (NBC in Dallas) Kinky - 39% Perry - 24% Srayhorn - 22% Bell - 14% Werner - 1% Houston Chronicle Texas Politics Blog Perry - 33% Kinky - 26% Bell - 25% Strayhorn - 16%
Looks like Kinky has a real chance. Especially if people who are only voting for others because they don't think Kinky has a shot, will vote for him.
Just got an email from Kinky's campaign....the official celebration will be held this evening at Scholtz's Beer Garden in the shadow of the Capitol building in Austin!!
Kinky should admit that he doesn't have a shot, drop out, and endorse Bell. Everyone knows that Bell is the only one with a shot to unseat Perry.
Where did you see any poll results? No network should be releasing exit polling results until the polls are closed.
I was thinking the same thing. Tex are these exit polls or just polls taken by the individual stations and their viewers/listeners?
Chris Bell couldn't beat a dead man in a running race These are not exit polls. Just polls done by the media outlets on election day.
This is going ot be a fun night. Watch the east coast returns start to come in...switch over to league pass to watch the Rockets...switch back to see the west coast come in and a Democratic victory! What a night!
Well, the Rockets have 77 more games after tonight. The next election is 2 years away. A Rockets loss I could live with because they'll just win tomorrow. For the greater good, I'll go with a Democratic win in one or both houses.
I voted today. I clicked Sherrod Brown, it highlighted Mike Dewine. I was like, ******* it. So I clicked around, and I changed it. But, still an odd coincidence.
I'm more optimistic, for sure. I think the Democrats will end up with at least a ten seat majority in the House, which would be a pickup of 25 seats. I think they end up 5 in the Senate, but could luck out and get 6. All that assumes fair voting. Whether we get that is a good question. I'm hoping that margins are large enough that it won't matter. Keep D&D Civil.
Blasphemy. The order is this: 1. Rockets win 2. Rockets win 3. Rockets win . . . . . . 100.+ Democrats win Nothing is more important than a Rockets win. NOTHING!!!!
