Drafting a 7'6 guy when all the other bigs his size had short careers due to injury and trading for a guy who has quit on his previous teams wasn't taking a risk? Do you think the Rockets made terrible decisions trying to build around Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady? There is only one way for the Rockets to become a contender (a contender, not 1st/2nd round fodder) and that is if Yao's contract us traded for a superstar, none of which wants to come to Houston or are available. The current team is also not good enough to win anything significant, even if you added a defensive C the Rockets would still be playoffs fodder. You don't tank, you play the young guys with potential and try to develop them, you trade guys like Scola who will not be around the next you compete for younger guys with potential or picks, what is the point in keeping a guy around when he will be retired the next time you compete? This is the Houston Rockets, not the LA Rockets or NY Rockets, you can't just hope that some superstar suddenly becomes available and wants to come to Houston.
That's the thing, there is no easy silver bullet. Everyone that wants to tank are looking for magic bullets. There is no magic bullet to winning a championship, it takes years of hard work and also luck as well. We are not one move away, but the way to the championship is to always continually get better, not tank and look for shortcuts.
Good, we are making progress and you realize how hard it is to win a championship. Now, building around Kevin Martin will not work unless he suddenly becomes an above average defender, becomes a clutch performer and is put on the floor with 4 other guys who plays at a borderline all star level and plays elite team defense. Now do you understand why so many people would rather go the "tank" approach and gamble in the draft for a superstar?
No, because they live in NBA2k world, where players are static and improve according to some software algorithm. You know why most superstars are drafted by winning organisations? Players improve and regress according to the environment they are in. Organisations that tank year after year will NEVER get that superstar, because superstars are not drafted as a finished product. The difference between stephon marbury and deron williams happens to a great degree AFTER they were drafted.
Actually McGrady's back issues began in Orlando. We just rolled the dice on them because he was such a talented player. http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-120412291.html
More than likely, we will not stay with this cast. We will continue to shift players, but the result will remain the same as long as we continue to play moneyball. Moneyball ensures winning through above average mediocrity. In short, we will be in the playoffs more often than not but will never get past the second round.
Nice work, jmwilliamson, and I'll even concede the point about Kobe being drafted for the Lakers with a trade already in place. That still doesn't negate the fact that the Lakers traded an asset to gain a high draft pick -- which is what I think Morey should be doing, as opposed to the team tanking to get that pick. What I'd like to know -- but won't bother researching on Christmas Day -- is how many of these superstars or stars drafted by the team they lead to the finals during the lottery period were chosen with picks that originally belonged to the team who chose them. That's the key distinction, because if you argue "blowing it up" or tanking to get a high pick, then you need data that show that using assets to acquire a high pick is a poor method of getting one. I mentioned in another thread that the pre-lottery Lakers essentially built the Showtime dynasty by taking the anti-tanking/anti-blowing-it-up route. Here are the specifics: By 1979 they already had Kareem (acquired via trade), Jamaal Wilkes (also via trade) and Norm Nixon (drafted). That year they were 47-35 and made it to the WC finals. But a few years before they had allowed Gail Goodrich to walk via free agency, knowing the league would force the signing team to compensate them. He was signed by the New Orleans Jazz, who coughed up some draft picks as compensation, including their #1. Sure enough, the Jazz had the league's worst record, so an already loaded Lakers team got to pick Magic Johnson. Halfway through Magic's rookie year, they made a seemingly inconsequential trade: Don Ford and their 1980 first-rounder to the Cavs for Butch Lee and the Cav's 1982 first-rounder. In '82 the Lakers were coming off a championship year (the extreme opposite of tanking, I'd say) and, of course, the Cavs were the league's worst that year. It was the first time a sitting NBA champ ever had the No. 1 pick in the draft. They picked James Worthy, and the Showtime Lakers were born. Now obviously, that's an exceptional instance of rebuilding while still playing at a high level. But the fact is, they used shrewd asset management to build an amazing team DURING a 4-year period in which their records were 47-35, 60-22, 54-28 and 57-25, including two championships and playoff appearances all four years. It CAN be done; you just need some tradeable assets and a smart GM, both of which we have. Morey just needs to target teams that are likely to have high draft picks in the next few years AND need financial relief from ugly contracts, then make deals for their #1 picks without allowing them to lottery-protect them. Then do your draft homework and cross your fingers. Tanking to try to better position yourself to win a championship is like going to a whorehouse to look for a bride.
I think after all our debating in your previous thread, we're finally on the same page. There's no way we should be intentionally trying to lose -- but we should be trying our hardest to move up in the draft to get the guy we want. I don't want to hear, "we tried but it was too expensive" this year -- I want you to actually get it done, Morey. It doesn't even have to be a top three or topfive (yeah.) pick -- plenty of star players have come in the 5-10 range. We just need to identify which guys we feel can be that player and aggressively trade up to get them.
For those claiming that the Rockets need to rebuild NOW due to Yao's latest injury, I must reiterate my point that Daryl Morey has been rebuilding the this team for the past year and a half, starting with the Rafer-for-Lowry trade in February 2009. So, for the sake of argument, let's assume for a moment that you had a fully healthy Rockets roster as on December 31, 2008, but then both Yao and McGrady suffered career-ending injuries on January 1, 2009. At that time, the Rockets' "core" consisted of the following players: Yao Ming (franchise cornerstone) Tracy McGrady (franchise cornerstone) Ron Artest ("the third guy") Rafer Alston (fixture in starting lineup) Shane Battier (starter/sixth man) Luis Scola (starting PF w/little NBA experience) Aaron Brooks (young backup PG) Carl Landry (young backup PF) Chuck Hayes (situational defender) With the rest of the roster rounded out by Von Wafer (rental gunner), Brent Barry (mentor swingman), Dikembe Mutombo (mentor big man) and "the rest" (Luther Head, Joey Dorsey). So, . . . what would have LIKELY happened at this point if the Rockets were going to start from scratch??? With Yao's career over, and with two years, $34M in guaranteed salary owed AFTER that season, no team in the league would want anything to do with that contract. Remember, if a team trades for a player with a career-ending injury KNOWING about that injury, it is not entitled to special relief from the league in the form of a Disabled Player Exception or other cap relief. Same holds true for McGrady, and the additional $23M owed AFTER that season. So, the Rockets' best trade assets for that season would have been Artest (29), Rafer (32) and Battier (30), with the pieces with which to rebuild consisting of Scola (28), Brooks (almost 24) and Landry (25). Let's say that Morey trades Rafer to a playoff contender (Orlando) in a three-way trade that nets the team 23-year-old Kyle Lowry and elevates Brooks to the starting PG position. Well, look at that! He did just that! Let's also say that the Rockets trade Artest to a contender in exchange for, say, a decent bench player with another year left on his contract (we'll call him "Bench Guy") and a 2009 first round pick. Those 2008-09 Rockets falter, end up with a mid- to late lottery pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. (A Rick Adelman-coached Rockets team were NOT going to end with a bottom-5 record.) So, Morey comes away with a haul of Terrence Williams with the Rockets' pick (we know that Morey really liked Williams as a top-10 pick) and a guy in the teens we'll call "Mid-First Rounder". And, since the Rockets were rebuilding, Les decides to use some of the insurance money he got on his stars to buy up some second rounders, netting the team a nice bench player in Chase Budinger. Morey also finally decides to use the DPE he got from Yao's injury on a younger SF (to replace Ron Artest) and nabs Trevor Ariza. Due to the lack of other quality free agents willing to sign with Houston (and also due to luxury tax concerns), the Rockets opt not to use the McGrady DPE in any significant way. Let's then say that a Rockets team of Brooks, Lowry, Williams, Ariza, Battier (someone needed to stay around to mentor the kids), Scola, Landry, Hayes, Bench Guy and Mid-First Rounder gets off to a terrible start and shows little signs of direction. Without a true SG, Morey somehow manages to pull off a stunning three-team trade with Sacramento and New York that sends Landry and McGrady's corpse (and now-expiring contract) out in exchange for 26-year-old Kevin Martin (who is only a few months older than Landry), Jared Jeffries's contract, Jordan Hill and future picks. Morey is applauded as a genius. Even with the addition of Martin, the team goes on to a bad season and end up with, say, the #7 pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. After failing to move into the top-5 of a draft that was only 5 deep with top-quality talent, Morey resigns himself to being "stuck" with the 7th pick and selects the top player left on his draft board, Patrick Patterson. With Yao deciding not to exercise his Early Termination Option and to continue to draw his (very large) paychecks from Les Alexander, the Rockets opt not to use what little cap room they would have had and instead re-sign Lowry and Scola to new deals but decide to let Bench Guy leave in free agency. Also, after realizing that the team may have overspent on Ariza, the Rockets manage to dupe the Nets into trading them Courtney Lee (a guy that Morey really wanted in the 2008 NBA Draft) and a large trade exception for Ariza. So, now, I ask you all . . . HOW IS THAT TEAM ANY DIFFERENT THAN THE CURRENT ROCKETS TEAM??? They have an aging Brad Miller instead of Mid-First Rounder? That hardly qualifies as a significant difference. This current Rockets team is young, filled with guys who were either recent lottery picks (Hill, Williams, Patterson) or would have been lottery picks if their respective drafts were redone (Martin, Brooks, and maybe even Lowry and Lee at the back end of the lottery). They have extra draft rights over the next two years. And, despite what many here want to believe, the Rockets organization WILL NOT allow this team to completely bottom out by playing terrible basketball. They will continue to compete, like it or not. Bottom line: Morey has managed to rebuild this team over the past year and a half, all while keeping Yao in the fold. That's pretty damn impressive to me. But maybe that's just me.
^That's what I've been saying all along. One year ago we just started rebuilding. People are expecting a franchise player right away. Just after we lost two.
What's impressive about it? Giving you the benefit of the doubt that we started rebuilding 1.5 years ago.. we still have a LONG ways to go. We still don't have any superstar on the team that we can build around for the next ten years as we had in Yao/McGrady. We're a #5th-#8th seed team with no player that's really good enough to put us on his back and win us a game. We're an extremely poor defensive team, especially when you look at how our three best players are also our three worst defenders. Morey has managed to collect a bunch of 'undervalued' assets and some pretty good role players / third-tier stars. That's great.. but we used to have two 1st tier stars. Now we have zero. I mean, forgive me for not celebrating him as if the job is done.. we've yet to accomplish the hardest part of rebuilding: finding a superstar. There is still a lot of work to be done to make this roster into a championship contender. Do you think that Brooks, Martin, and Scola are good enough by themselves to be the best players on a championship team? If you're just trying to make the point that it's technically not rebuilding 'NOW' since we started almost two years ago, I'll accept that. But it should be clear that we're no where near a finished product and we still need a big move and further roster turnover to get us into being a championship contender. Whether you want to call that 'currently rebuilding' or 'continuing to rebuild,' I don't care. The point is that we both should recognize that further big changes are needed to get this team where we all want it to be.
Why so many people waste time to discuss so-so thread? Threr is no good answer! There is no bad answer!!
1.5 years and you're already clamoring for a franchise star. only 1.5 years ago since we had two superstars. how about giving him some more time? in 1.5 years he has already done a fabulous job, but by no means is he content. most of the other teams in the nba wait 5+ years to be in our position two years ago (before those two stars broke down). i think you're a little impatient.
I'll tell you what's impressive about it. Instead of two seasons filled with below-mediocre basketball and 28-35 wins, the Rockets managed a first round playoff series victory (the first in over a decade) and taking the eventual champs to 7 games, followed by a season of above-.500 basketball, all while STILL getting the same talent they would have otherwise gotten in the lottery. If you don't value THAT, then I just feel sorry for you as a Rockets fan.
Ok you guys have convinced me. Let's rebuild and trade away those old farts like lowry, brooks, and Martin, who is almost 30 in three years. In the other rebuilding thread, I said that the only old players you have are Scola and battier, and the teams that are willing to trade for those players are all contending teams, which means the most they can offer are late first round and early second picks. Why make those trades when Morey and Les have shown that they are willing to buy unwanted draft picks from other teams? Might as well keep Luifa and Battier. The only thing I can come up with.. is giving san Antonio the championship and trading luis scola for his Bfff, Tiago. You get a center in return. If you're Sa do you do it?
I don't. Do you? How am I impatient? The only thing I want is a guy to build around -- and I'd like the Rockets to trade up in the draft to acquire one should one become available. We're two years in to your rebuilding plan and we still don't have the most important part of rebuilding: a star. What Morey has done a good job of is getting the assets to help him trade for one.. but until he does, we're going to be stuck in mediocrity. I'm not blaming Morey for not already having a franchise player -- you guys were the one making the argument that we started rebuilding two years ago, not me. I consider this our first year of truly rebuilding and I expect him to make moves in the next two or three years to help us land that star via the draft. Uhh -- so now you're counting the year that we traded multiple 1st rounders for Ron Artest as a rebuilding year? That's just not true -- we traded two 1st round picks for Artest that off-season.. Morey went "all-in" that year. We made it to the second round of the playoffs. I was happy. I don't see what that has to do with rebuilding though. The first year you can claim as a rebuilding year was last year when we let Artest walk and traded McGrady's contract. So in our first year of rebuilding, Daryl Morey's team was 42-40. That's pretty good -- but it's insignificant in the long run if it doesn't lead to us getting a star to build around. Getting the same talent they would have gotten? Seeing as we've only been truly rebuilding for one year, we only have one draft to look at: last years. We tried hard to get Cousins but couldn't come up with a deal. Had we been a "28-35 wins" team, we would have been around the #8th pick in the draft. Think it would have been easier dealing for the #5th pick in the draft (Cousins) if we had #8 or #9? Yeah, me too. So while 42-40 is nice, how did it help us in the long run? We've traded for two former lottery picks that their original teams gave up on. One couldn't even get playing time for his original team and is now an inconsistent role player on our bench -- the other has yet to see any playing time for us even though the guy above him in the rotation is shooting 37% from the floor. I'm impressed by results, not by the draft slots of former lottery picks we've traded for. You're a known Morey backer and I'm not bashing Darryl here -- we're early into the process and I have faith that he can eventually get us that star player. But the bottom line is that the current Rockets team isn't good enough to contend for a championship with its core guys. The assets we have collected so far have not been good enough to get Denver to even return our phone calls about Carmelo. Why would this suddenly change next year when CP3 & Dwight become available? It won't, unless a major move is made. That's why many of us are wanting Morey to make a big move during the draft -- THEN I'll be impressed with him. So yeah, I'm not impressed by Morey's rebuilding job because he hasn't done anything. If rebuilding a team was like painting a house, you're 'pretty damn impressed' with Morey for putting on the primer. I'll wait until he actually buys the color paint he wants to use (i.e., trades for a star player) before I tell everyone how impressed I am with his paint job. Because the only draft picks you would be able to buy would be in the 20s range. Teams don't sell lottery picks for just cash.
