That only works if you take out 25 misses randomly. In the 20 losses, Rafer was 107-282, or 37.9%. ... and 38.2% if you take out that game. I'll let you guys scramble and fix the numbers in a new way to tell us that Rafer is invaluable and his shooting irrelevant.
You're right, I'm not sure how I missed out on 25 misses...Perhaps the early loss to phoenix and detroit. Regardless, the point is that Rafer shoots as well or better in the games we lose as he does when we win.
P.S. "Scramble to make the numbers look good" - I think you need to scramble to make the numbers look bad. Rafer is a bad shooter, yes. However his shooting is less a liability than his other attributes. If the stats showed that he shot worse in our losses, I'd be inclined to agree. But they don't. In fact, there are only 4 losses where Rafer shot less than 40%, which we would have won had Rafer shot 50%. 1) Lakers 2OT game 2) Jan 07 at Minnesota. 3) Jan 20 vs Denver 4) We would have gone to OT had Rafer made a 3 in the last Dallas game.
Sorry for the triple post, but since I can't edit... Here are the revised numbers: Rafer Alston in 19 losses (excluding NOK game) 107-280, 38.2% on 44.3% 3pointers Rafer Alston in 35 wins 165-438, 37.7% on 49.3% 3pointers
You know full well these numbers are f*cked up. Rafer does NOT shoot better than 40% from 3 this year. I have him at only 39% in the wins alone. In losses (excluding NOK) i have him at 35.4% http://www.nba.com/playerfile/rafer_alston/season_splits.html (added in stats for today's game)
Just looking at his splits on ESPN.com (doesn't include the Orlando game), he's shot slightly worse from the field overall in the wins, but he has been significantly better beyond the arc in the wins. On 3s, he shoots 38.6% when we win (that should go up after the Orlando game), and only 35.2% when we lose. If you want to combine 2-point, 3-point, and free throw shooting by looking at TS%, his TS% is at 49.4% in wins, and 47.6% in the losses. That's terrible either way, but clearly he's a more efficient scorer in the wins. More significantly, perhaps, he gets 1.85 steals/g and only 2.1 turnovers/g in the wins, but 1.35 steals/g and 2.6 turnovers/g in the losses.
so Clutch, i have a game story for you, I got invited down into the rich seats recently...the guy behind me kept saying everytime Rafer shot...NO! Don't shoot! and his wife kept saying the same thing... now, i can agree with that...and if i'm in the chat room i might even say that.... but not live....not at the game! there is just something wrong with yelling "NO!" everytime Rafer shoots. live... it's the equivalent of yelling at JVG to put Teen Wolf into the game... i just can't do it,,,and i don't want to hear it. but, your analysis of Rafer is the best of all journalists....Lopez is an idiot. And let's not even discuss Drexler, since he has a place in all our rox hearts. I just want to say that us rockets fans before you started this board yelled at Kenny Smith as well, as you probably did too. us rockets fans have not had a pure pg in a long time. Rafer is as close as it gets for some of us. i miss it.
Sorry, I should have made it clear. 43% and 49% of his shots are 3point attempts, respectively. The actual shooting percentages from 3point land from my previous post was correct.
No they are not seeing and will probably never see what he brings to this team until he is injured or ejected like in the NOH game. People will continue to look at his shooting percentage and say he sucks w/o any regard to how well the team is playing. But alas, the select few Rockets fans who appreciate Rafer will continue to like him and the ones that have made up their mind about him will continue to dislike him. I can definitely see people being indifferent about him but some people really HATE the guy. Maybe I am over zealous in my observation, I hope I am.
Very good analysis. I am kind of confused. Are people calling Rafer a bad SHOOTER. 37% is a very solid 3PT% especially for a PG. I can see you calling him a bad finisher but his long range shooting has been huge this year although a bit inconsistent. That is a stat that everyone can see and there is no way you can think 37% is not a good 3pt%. Or do you?
I have to agree. That is a solid percentage to shoot from behind the arc. I feel like when its crunch time they seem to drop better to, not quite like Luther, but still pretty clutch.
Because he tends to take drastically fewer 3's in the games where we lose, while shooting 1 more shot per game, while assisting the ball less and committing more turnovers - I think you can reasonably infer that the Rockets are facing better defense on those nights. They're forcing Rafer to shoot and cutting off his passes. We already know that Rafer can't carry the team, so forcing him to do everything inevitably leads to a loss.
His 3-point attempts in wins is virtually the same as in the losses. Actually, per minute, it's slightly more (6.9 attempts/40min versus 6.7 attempts/40min). And you can see his splits against .500+ teams versus sub-500 teams here. He actually has shot slightly better against the .500+ teams from beyond the arc, interestingly enough. And he has slightly fewer turnovers.
I guess I don't get why people are making this so hard. While no one is saying that Rafer is one of the very best PGs in the league, there is no question that this team functions much better when Rafer is on the floor. So Rafer is not shooting that well? Well, he has some good days, and some off days. But he has shown improvement, and that bodes well for him as a player, as well as for the future. If he can improve in just the one-year-plus he has been here, it would be silly to assume he cannot continue to improve. However, the easiest way to look at the value of his various contributions is this: (forget about the proof offered by the game in which he was ejected, which ought to be enough for everyone anyway, but still) If his shooting is what makes people so 'down' on him, then we should be alot better with a better shooter playing position, right? Just watch and cringe when Luther is manning the point. Luther is a better shooter than Rafer, but the things we simply take for granted in Rafer become glaring weaknesses in Luther. Rafer is a confident ball-handler. He knows what to do with the ball when bringing it downcourt. He doesn't allow himself to be caught in bad spots, as luther does. He is quick, and has excellent court vision. He rarely makes a bad pass. And when his stroke is on from long range, he gives this team exactly what it needs from the pg spot. Where he needs lots of improvement, however, is in interior penetration. Obviously, Rafer is a slight fellow. He clearly is conditioned, likely from many years of being the smallest and slightest player on the playground jungle courts, to avoid contact in the paint at all costs. This would be fine if his shot were more consistent on his drives, but unfortunately, while he is able to get in there easily enough, and gets that little floater/'teardrop' shot off ok, it does not go in enough. If he receives enough drilling and coaching this off-season regarding going ahead and getting into the lane and accepting the violent collisions which are going to occur, actually driving to the hoop and drawing some fouls, he could help catapult both himself and this team to the next level. As it is, though, despite his warts, he's by far the best we have, and everybody, Rafer himself, every player on the team, Rox brass, and all us fans, better be on our knees every night praying for Rafer's continued good health and well-being. Because we are flying without a net there. If he goes down, it's over, no question about it.
I meant as a proportion of total shots. I.e. he's changing his modus operandi in the losses (shooting more often, while taking less long range shots). He still shoots a three every six and a half minutes, yes, but he's also shooting more "other" shots. I think EFG% is misleading anyway since his DrawF% is low, and his FT% is lower in losses.
good post Nero. I'm not so sure Rafer needs to look for "violent collisions" any more than Parker or Sam Cassell does, but yeah, good post.
Not really. His FG% is virtually the same in wins and losses despite shooting better behind the arc in the wins, which means he's probably clanking more runners and floaters. The whole argument about his shot volume/three point attempts is bogus as far as this is concerned. What's particularly interesting is his splits by day of the week. He is absolutely deadly behind the arc on Wednesdays and Thursdays, and somewhat atrocious on Mondays and Fridays (28% on Mondays -- ouch! Doesn't sound good for tonight).
