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Yes, Virginia, There Is a Legitimate Case Against Free Trade

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by glynch, Mar 9, 2011.

  1. glynch

    glynch Contributing Member

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    A very interesting article. You have lots of even liberals and folks with a couple of economic courses who believe that the case for free trade has been proven beyond a doubt economically-- not just your bumper sticker deep followers of Gynecologist Ron Paul.
    ****

    There is a myth in wide circulation that the superiority of free trade is simply a settled question on which all serious economists agree. The flip side of this myth, of course, is that anyone who criticizes free trade must either be ignorant of economics, or the spokesman of some special interest which hopes to benefit from trade restrictions. Such critics are not only wrong, the story continues with admittedly impeccable logic, but profoundly worthy of public contempt, as they are necessarily either dumb or corrupt.
    Unfortunately, this myth is just that: a myth, promoted by special interests which benefit from free trade, whatever the harm to the rest of the economy. Serious economists actually recognize a number of very serious criticisms of free trade -- even economists who ultimately decide that free trade is better than the alternatives. They generally don't talk about the flaws of free trade too loudly, for fear of provoking the public into supporting stupid forms of protectionism, but they certainly know they are there.

    Thanks to recent developments in economics (most visibly signaled by Paul Krugman's winning the 2009 Nobel Prize), these criticisms are becoming more serious every day. There is, in fact, an inexorable erosion of the credibility of free trade going on in the academy, not that you'd know it from watching the economists who show up on TV.

    The rest of this article is just a wee bit technical. The point is not to baffle the reader, but to pry open the mysterious "black box" of free trade economics a little, and let non-economists in on the big secret that economists regard as dangerous to talk about too loudly: free trade economics is a package of mechanisms that, like any piece of machinery, can and do break down all the time. And when they break down, free trade ceases to be a good idea.

    Let's crack open that intimidating black box, shall we, and have a look at the machinery inside? Free trade has roughly ten very serious problems.
    The first problem is the assumption that trade is sustainable. But a nation exporting non-renewable resources may discover that its best move (in the short run) is to export until it runs out. The flip side of this problem is overconsumption, in which a nation (like the present-day U.S., maybe?) borrows from abroad in order to finance a short-term binge of imports that lowers its long-term living standard due to the accumulation of foreign debt and the sale of assets to foreigners.

    The second problem is that free trade increases inequality even if it makes the economy grow overall (which is itself questionable). Because free trade tends to raise returns to the abundant input to production (in America, capital) and lower returns to the scarce input (in America, labor), it tends to benefit capital at labor's expense. Economists call this the Stolper-Samuelson theorem.

    The third problem is so-called "negative externalities," the economists' term for when economic value is destroyed without a price tag being attached to the damage. Environmental damage is the most obvious example, but there are others, like the cost of writing off expensively-developed human capital (otherwise known as "people") when free trade wipes out entire American industries.

    The fourth problem is positive externalities, like the way some industries (mainly high technology) open up paths of growth for the entire economy. All industries are not alike, and the profits of an industry today do not necessarily predict the industry's long-term value for the economy. Free trade can allow these industries to be wiped out because it ignores this hidden value, harming the rest of the economy for decades to come.

    The next four problems concern the all-important Theory of Comparative Advantage, the theoretical keystone of free trade economics. This theory, invented by the British economist David Ricardo in 1817, says that free trade will automatically cause nations to specialize in producing whatever they are relatively best at, and that this will lead to the best of all possible worlds. To wit:

    Problem number five is that Ricardo's theory assumes factors of production are mobile within nations. Unemployed autoworkers become aircraft workers, and abandoned automobile plants turn into aircraft factories. But this doesn't always happen, and when it does, it is often at considerable cost.

    Problem number six is the assumption, in Ricardo's theory, that the inputs used in production (like labor, capital, and technology) are not mobile between nations. His theory says that free trade automatically reshuffles a nation's factors of production to their most productive uses. But if factors of production are internationally mobile, and their most-productive use is in another country, then free trade will cause them to migrate there--which is not necessarily best for the nation they depart.

    Problem number seven is that Ricardo's theory assumes the economy is always operating at full output--or at least that trade has no effect on its output level. But if trade puts people and factories out of action, this isn't true.

    Problem number eight is that Ricardo's theory assumes short-term efficiency is the origin of long-term growth. But long-term economic growth is about turning from Burkina Faso into South Korea, not about being the most-efficient possible Burkina Faso forever. History has shown time and again that the short-term inefficiencies of a tariff, properly implemented, are more than compensated for by the long-term spur to industry growth it can provide, largely because growth has more to do with the industry externalities mentioned above (problem number four) than short-term efficiency per se.

    Problem number nine is that Ricardo's theory merely guarantees (if true, which is itself questionable due to problems five through eight) there will be gains from free trade. It does not guarantee that changes induced by free trade, like rising productivity abroad, will cause these gains to grow rather than shrink. So if free trade strengthens our economic rivals, then it may harm us in the long run by stiffening international competition, even if it was advantageous for us to buy goods from these rivals in the short run.

    The final problem is that, in the presence of scale economies, the perfectly-competitive international markets presumed by the theory of comparative advantage do not exist. Instead, industries tend to be imperfectly competitive and quasi-monopolistic. Under these conditions, outsize profits and wages accrue to nations that host such industries. And free trade will not necessarily assign any given nation these industries.

    Hopefully, the above list should convince the reader that free trade is, at the very least, an extremely complicated question, and by no means something that anyone is entitled to consider simply settled. Therefore it is high time that free trade's critics were given the serious hearing that they deserve. America desperately needs a full-fledged debate on whether to continue with its Cold War policy of free trade or return to the protectionism we embraced from Independence until roughly the end of WWII.

    Ian Fletcher is the author of Free Trade Doesn't Work: What Should Replace It and Why (USBIC, $24.95) He is an Adjunct Fellow at the San Francisco office of the U.S. Business and Industry Council, a Washington think tank founded in 1933. He was previously an economist in private practice, mostly serving hedge funds and private equity firms. He may be contacted at ian.fletcher@usbic.net.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher/yes-virginia-there-is-a-l_b_533579.html
     
  2. rtsy

    rtsy Member

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    Thank God for people like June Akinyi Arunga, featured in four documentaries exploring trade, migration, property and wealth in Africa, as well as participating in numerous television and radio programs on a variety of related public policy issues. She serves on the advisory committee of University of the People[3] is an advisory board member of Moving Picture Institute, Global Envision, and is a fellow at the International Policy Network (London, UK) and Istituto Bruno Leoni (Milan, Italy). The common thread running through these efforts is her linking of the need for a robust protection of property rights in Africa to ensure justice and African empowerment.

    Death to socialists.

    <iframe title="YouTube video player" width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/rZWprOwbwVw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
  3. Ubiquitin

    Ubiquitin Contributing Member
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    Free Trade is great for developing countries because it gives them access to enormous pools of capital and markets that can buy the goods made with that capital. Free Trade is not so great in balancing labor market inequalities because labor, unlike capital, is tied to the cultural geography.

    Hence, with free trade should come an increased tax burden on the main beneficiaries (e.g. the wealthy) and this should be distributed to the losing parties (e.g. the working class) to offset their losses. The gains from free trade for the wealthy are bigger than the losses for the working class, but the difference is being hoarded which defies the spirit of free trade on the international level.

    Social stability is a crucial ingredient to a successful economy, and our working implementation of Free Trade is doing a poor job at maintaining that stability.
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. Grizzled

    Grizzled Member

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    Excellent post. Further, the point needs to be made very clear that you cannot have a capitalist economy without a strong, active, and effective government. You need it not only for regulation to ensure fair and ethical trade, but you also need the government to manage the social safety nets and the education required to manage the shifting markets. Don’t be fooled by people like rtsy and basso. They are NOT real capitalists. They are con men and thieves, nothing more.

    I’ll get to the 10 points in glynch’s post in a bit.
     
  5. Grizzled

    Grizzled Member

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    Trade is ever changing. Countries rich in natural resources should use their resources, and should be allowed to use their resources, to provide jobs for their people and to generate wealth. The governments should make sure to take in a lot of money in royalties, and they should reinvest that money in infrastructure and education, and thereby position themselves to transition out of a strictly resource based economy.

    On the flip side, yes, a country should not over consume in the long term, but now is the time for the US government to be borrowing and investing. Money is cheap. Labour is cheap. Materials are cheap. Based on no more than basic capitalist principles, now is the time for the government to be borrowing and investing in infrastructure and education/re-education to move the country forward.

    And this is where the government needs to be active in providing the social safety nets and managing the shifting markets. Also note that in recent decades the power of capital has diminished greatly while the power of education and ideas has increased, and this is where wise, capitalist, governments should be investing, education and ideas.

    Real costs like environmental damage need to be identified, quantified, and the guilty parties need to be held responsible. Retraining is a reality that we all need to accept. The world is a constantly changing place. That’s not going to change. What we can do is find good ways to manage that change.

    It would have been nice to have an example of what specifically he’s talking about, but in general I’ll repeat what I said above. The world is a constantly changing place. That’s not going to change. What we can do, however, is to find good ways to manage that change.

    And that cost needs to be factored in, but don’t forget that there is also a cost to not making the shift.

    There are exceptions to every rule, I guess, but I’d need an example of this to respond to.

    I’m not following his argument here.

    We’d need to break down his last sentence and look at examples, but w.r.t. the first part, this is again where the government needs to manage the country like a corporation. It needs to take substantial royalties from the use of its natural resources, for example, and use those to invest in the country for long term success.

    Again, too vague a suggestion to respond to.

    Again, too vague a suggestion to respond to.
     
  6. cml750

    cml750 Member

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    I hate to tell you that posting an article from The Huffington Post is like a conservative posting an article from the Drudge Report. There are a lot of people who consider The Huffington Post liberal propaganda.
     
  7. brantonli24

    brantonli24 Member

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    A good modern day example of something with positive externalities is the medical industry. The money that is used to pay for the medicine does not in any way reflect the addition to value you earn by being healthier, working more productively. That's what he means by a positive externality. The problem the article is pointing out is that because these additional benefits are ignored by the parties involved in the exchange of the good, then they are underconsumed, and therefore free trade is not at its most efficient in allocating goods with positive externalities.

    And I'm not sure what you are doing Grizzlied, are you trying to refute his points? Because it seems you are quoting sections of the passage and then posting unrelated things on how to improve the economy (which I agree with btw).
     
  8. glynch

    glynch Contributing Member

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    I like this post, too. Assuming a capitalist economy actually creates the most real wealth (this may be true) the problem is that as envisioned by conservative/libertarian market style worshippers, the result is more and more concentration of wealth among a small elite. Also you have things like environmental destruction, dangerus products etc. produced in great number if they produce great profit for those elite.

    So if you have a captitalist system you need to interfere perhaps at only two points 1) you have to redistribute the wealth (gasp!!) and you also at times need to decide what is to be produced or not produced independent of how much money it can make the usual capitalists. If we have to wait until the usual elite can maximize their profit in the short run while preventing climate change or environmental disaster we are doomed.

    Any type of fundie market ideology that rejects these two interventions should be viewed as justself serving ideology for the benefit of a small elite transmitted down the food chain to fool those who are not uber elite. Of course arguments against this type of intervention pay very well and can lead to endowned chairs at business school or libertarian think tanks etc.
     
    #8 glynch, Mar 9, 2011
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2011
  9. Grizzled

    Grizzled Member

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    His overall argument is that free trade is a bad thing. I’m not necessarily trying to refute each of his 10 points, but rather I’m trying to show that they don’t show that free trade is a bad thing, provided that it’s managed properly. Further, I guess I’m trying to say that free trade managed properly is good capitalism, as well as good progressivism.

    With respect to your example, I would say that much of the positive externalities of good health care are realized by the country as a whole. Healthy people are more productive, and they pay more taxes, and they volunteer in the community more, and they probably commit less crime, etc. This is a big reason why there should be universal health care paid for by the government, because the country as a whole, as well as the individual, benefits greatly from it.

    At the risk of running off on a tangent, the benefit to society is more than just dollars and sense, of course. We don’t put our old folks down when they stop making money and become a draw on the heath care system, for example. They are valuable to us in many other ways, and just the act of taking care of them is valuable to us. Jean Vanier, who started L’Arche, has said this about disabled people as well. He believes that the gift disabled people give to us is their disability. Essentially he’s saying that what we learn about ourselves through the process of taking care of people with disabilities is more valuable than the resources we spend taking care of them.
     
  10. glynch

    glynch Contributing Member

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    Actually I think they are just scared and insecure. They feel that if others have more their lifestyle will suffer.

    I'm not sure they're con men; rather they have been conned by people above them on the food chain
     
  11. Grizzled

    Grizzled Member

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    You could be right about rtsy, but basso is very calculated about what he posts on this forum. I think every post he makes, and pretty well every word, is calculated political spin. I think he’s the guy who’s working people like rtsy, as well as trying to get the progressives worked up and derailed. My guess is that he's paid to work this and other message boards.
     
  12. Kojirou

    Kojirou Member

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    I disagree with basso on some stuff, but :rolleyes: at above. The fact that his posts make more sense than rtsy's stuff means he's paid?
     
  13. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    The fact that he doesn't debate any of the topics he starts, starts so many topics, ignores information contrary to his point of view, all lead to the conclusion that he is paid.

    Most people start topics in hopes that people will discuss them. basso doesn't discuss any of the many topics he starts. He just throws them out there as if he were getting paid to do so.
     
  14. Grizzled

    Grizzled Member

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    Exactly. You beat me to it. I had this typed up before I saw your post but I’ll post it anyway.

    ---
    In response to Kojirou:
    The fact that he has no position of his own should make you suspect that. Everything he posts is designed to either support the Republican position of the day - and his position flip-flops in lockstep with the Republicans - or to try to discredit the Democrats. Once in a blue moon he throws in a post that is designed to make you think he’s a real human being and not just a spin doctor, but that happens so rarely I can’t even remember the last one. He’s smart enough to have a mind of his own, and yet he doesn’t have a position of his own. That’s your first clue.

    Your second clue might be that his arguments are frequently internally inconsistent. He’s often making it up on the fly and he knows what he wants to make you to believe, but he hasn’t thought through the spin he’s come up with enough to make it internally consistent.

    Your third clue might be that when he’s exposed for his lies or faulty logic he never admits it, or even admits he was wrong. He just disappears, only to reappear a few days later with some new spin he’s made up, or been fed by his handlers.
     
  15. glynch

    glynch Contributing Member

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    Basso is just an elitist who claims: he comes from a country club background; went to Rice andnow has a job in finance/usiness. Life has been as expected and this has fed his conservative upbringing. Not my favorite type of person, but I think it is absurd to think Basso is paid to post, though I have read some conservatives are paid to do so by corporations and big money ideologues. I doubt Clutch fans has risen to that level, yet.

    PS I am not being paid to post by anyone and in it probably costs me money to post during business hours.;)
     
  16. Grizzled

    Grizzled Member

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    I’m not suggesting that he’s only working CF. I suspect he’s working a long list of sites, and probably cutting and pasting much of the same crap onto each site, but I definitely think he’s working this site. He isn’t doing anything else here. He’s not listening to anyone else. He’s not participating in any kind of real discussion. He’s not even giving his own opinion. He’s just relentlessly spewing the Republican party line, and using all their current tricks to try to discredit Obama. He acts like someone who is campaigning in an election, and who has been getting regular briefs on what the party position is on various topics, and on strategy for “getting the message out” and getting buy-in. What he’s doing here is pure politics. There is nothing personal about his involvement here, save the very rare post where he tries to post something that looks personal.
     
  17. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member
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    Geezzzz Basso has derailed a thread he hasn't even posted in.
     
  18. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member
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    On topic.

    I can agree with most of the original article and still say that Free Trade is a better idea than protectionism.
     

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