I don't think you can parse that reality from the expansion storyline. If Astroworld had the option to expand, they could have spent a bunch of money on renovations to increase traffic from families, increase revenues and bulk up security, cutting down on the thug reputation. But, given they couldn't expand, there was no point in doing renovations and they'd instead squeeze value out by controlling costs, which allows the thugs to prosper. A few more: The Woodlands: 21 miles Conroe: 21 miles Humble: 11 miles Spring: 23 miles Kingwood: 11 miles If people don't come from Katy (and they will anyway), they'll still be fine. Texas Renaissance Festival is further away (50 miles from downtown) and I can attest that the drive really is freaking terrible, but they get a half-million nerds in a month. Downtown Aquarium takes that strategy and they seem to do okay. But, their footprint is comparatively tiny and they don't have any real roller-coasters on it. To even locate a plot big enough is a challenge and likely not possible, and then the cost of something in-town would completely wreck the economics. Sure you'd like something in town, sure more people might go; but that's impossible, so forget it.
I won't mind the drive out there. I mean, that's what happens on some trips right? You drive further than normally. It's not like people will be going weekly so the distance won't be a problem.
I think it will get visitors since its closer than any other park. I don't think it will be as cool for the teenaged youth as Astroworld was since I don't see kids making that commute daily. But maybe that's what the powers that be wanted since everyone seems to think Astroworld was thug central.