Nice post. I would disagree with a few points. For shot-blocking big men, defensive responsibility is more about help defense and stopping points in the paint. When you think of great defensive bigs like Hakeem Olajuwon or Dikembe Mutombo, the focus usually isn't on their ability to shut down other post players. It's their ability to protect the basket against any opponents that challenge them. To me, that's more important. As an individual defender, Yao has is strengths and weaknesses compared to Dwight Howard. Against tradition low post player, Yao is probaby more effective. But against other scoring bigs that face up, rely on drives, or shoot jumpers, Dwight is probably more effective. As far as protecting the basket and intimidation, both are pretty effective but I'd give Dwight Howard an edge there. As far as rebounding, you argue that its easier for Dwight to collect rebounds because his teammates aren't good rebounders. There is some truth to that. But its also worth mentioning that the Magic are the second best defensive rebounding team in the league (based on team defensive rebound%), even though they play a small lineup with Dwight in the middle for the majority of the game. If Howard was getting a lot of rebounds on a bad rebounding team, your argument would be more persuasive.
I agree that shot blocking is important to a big man, but changing shots probably has almost the same effect as blocking a shot over the course of a game. Yao may not be athletic enough to block 3 shots per game like Dwight, but he is big enough to change them. Shooting over a 7'6 player is not an easy task, even for NBA players. I also think it is important to play good on the ball defense as well. Most of the great centers were able to play tough defense even against other great centers. Look at Olajuwon, in the 95 playoffs his shot blocking was really down compared to years, but he shut down Robinson and he was still able to contain Shaq, by playing good man-to-man defense. Tim Duncan has done that his entire career. He still protects the basket and changes shots, but he plays really good defense on the ground. Yao is similar, except he has trouble out on the perimeter, but Shaq had a big problem with this too, even though he was much more athletic than Yao. Most people can live with their center being limited out there, but in today's game, it is a bit of a bigger problem. As far as Dwight's rebounding, look at the shots that Orlando takes and the pace they play at. They play at a faster pace, and take A LOT of 3 point shots. Therefore there are more missed shots to be rebounded. Also, as I stated in my previous post, if Howard is allowed to focus ONLY on rebounding for a possession, that gives him an advantage. He is their #3 option right now, and #4 when Nelson was there. Yao is usually the # 1 option, and at worst a # 2 option with Tmac healthy. Yao has to worry about getting position down low, making an offensive move and either score or make the right pass out of the double team, then rebound. There are many possessions where Dwight doesn't touch the ball, and he only has to set a pick and then he just crashes the board. He can focus more on boxing out and getting position to rebound. He is still a better rebounder, but the #'s are a little deceptive, thats all that I'm trying to say about that.
I didn't want to understate the importance of playing solid, individual defense. I think, in the grand scheme, for big men like Yao and Dwight Howard (and past centers like Mutombo, Olajuwon, Robinson, etc.) they make most of their impact in their team defense. You bring up Olajuwon's defense on David Robinson. Robinson was an untraditional offensive big, in that he didn't really rely on his post up game to generate points. Which player do you think would have a better shot defensively against a player like David Robinson -- Yao or Dwight? Like I said, Yao has his strengths and his weaknesses on defense. I don't think David Robinson would be a good matchup for him, at all. In fact, if Yao was transported into the mid-90s, he may actually have had an easier time (relatively speaking, of course) defending Olajuwon. It's not difficult to adjust rebounding numbers for pace and shots taken -- that's what rebound% does. You say that Howard's numbers are inflated because of his responsibilities and the type of team he plays on. But suppose we replaced Howard with Yao on the Magic. With different teammates and different responsibilities, how might Yao fare? And vice versa, if we put Dwight Howard in Houston. Does Howard perhaps rebound less, and score more, as a Rocket? Or does he just rebound less?
Well, I do think Yao would have a tougher time with Robinson than Dwight, because Robinson ran the floor better and he has a mid range jumper. But, in the half court, he still relied on a lot of alley hoops and put backs, because he could jump really high for a guy who was 7'1 and he was truly a beast on the boards. But I think Yao would probably play him similar to how he plays Dwight Howard. Make Robinson shoot jumpers all day, and try to limit his easy points around the basket. Dwight doesn't have the luxury of shooting a jumper, so he becomes really easy to guard. Drob, not so much... I think Yao would have somewhat of an advantage on Dream, because dream really struggled against length, because he was only 6'11 himself. Yao would probably give up the jumper, and hope that Dream has a bad night shooting. But Olajuwon's hook shot and fadeaway would definetily be effected by Yao's height. I think if Yao was in Orlando, they would probably be right aruond the same level, but they would have another go to guy to help Nelson late in games. They probably wouldn't be able to play at the same pace either, which might hurt Lewis and Turkoglu, but they will get wide open shots because of Yao, so it might even out. I think Yao would score more because of the 3 point threat and rebound more, because of necessity and lack of other strong rebounders. If Dwight was here without a healthy Tmac, he scores less. He won't have to rebound as much, because Scola, Artest, and Tmac are all great rebounders for their position, and Landry is decent as well. But Tmac or Ron would have to be primary options. Tmac probably could run the pick n' roll effectively with dwight, getting alley hoops and dunks, but without Mac, I don't see Howard being that effective offensively (12-15 ppg, which still isn't bad, but not best center in the league worthy scoring) I am not too familiar with rebounding %, thats why I didn't bring it up, but I believe what you say about that, because you do know much more about it than I do.
Rebounding% is basically what you were referring to, looking at the percentage of available rebounds the player grabbed. So, a player isn't penalized for playing on team where there are less missed shots to rebound. You can see offensive reb% and defensive reb% at basketball-reference.com, if you're interested. Dwight Howard doesn't lead the league any more, but he's still top 5 at both.
i kinda disagree with having a easier time with dream. dream ran the court like a gazzelle too. what made him better than Robinson is when it got down and dirty, he didnt need dribble penetration from guards to get buckets, dream could just post. That baseline fade couldve been shot over anyone and the counter moves off it were crazy. Yao would fare better against daughtery kind of center because he wasnt fast and generally woked in a smaller area of the court. dream, robinson, and ewing to a degree could function from 16 ft or so. All 3 were really good shooters from 16 ftand thats were yao really struggles. If Dream can drop 30 per on a young shaq, i dont see why he would do the same on yao. Shaq was a better defender than yao in his 7th yr vs yao in his 7th season.
But the area in which Olajuwon excelled Robinson, his post up game, is what Yao does a better job defending. I'm not saying Yao would make Olajuwon an inefficient player, but I think Robinson would exploit Yao more with his face up game and his ability to draw fouls on guys a step slower than him. Robinson routinely averaged 10+ free throw attempts a game. Olajuwon, as good as he was, never drew a lot of fouls. Yao would rather defend a player shooting fadeaways and jump hooks over him out of the low post than a player who excels in the mid-post and driving it hard. And though Olajuwon was good at running the court, I think Robinson did it more consistently.
Dream's fakes usually only work if people go for them, and honestly I don't think Yao would be quick enuogh to even go for Dream's fakes. He would probably just be frozen, because dream's moves were pretty sick. I've seen many times where Dream would pull of a couple of fakes, but by the time he came back to his first fake, the defender was just reacting to the first fake, which meant that his fake was too quick! Instead of just going to the baseline, coming back in to the middle, brought Dream right back to the defender. It was still amazing to see how quick it was though. But if he has to shoot over a guy who is 7 inches taller than him it will affect him to some degree. He struggled against Muereason and Eaton at times during his career, where as Robinson, Shaq, and Ewing would be easier for him to score against for some odd reason. Just a matchup thing. Dream was kinda small for a center. The one area he and Robinson both would exel against Yao would be running the floor. I think Shaq and Drob would be the best matchup for Yao, because they were around the basket more, where as dream would be able to drive in or post up from 10- 15 feet out and Ewing could hit 20 ft jumpers all day long.
I know what you're saying, but the prime dream was a guy they set down screen for to curl and shoot jumpers. Thats also the same guy who would knock down the off the block jumper like clockwork. Now the earlier version of dream was similar to howard and thats why he struggled with eaton, but eaton was a much better defender than yao and not just on blocks alone. he played big on defense because he always had his hands and arms up. If yao played as big as eaton on defense, then thats another world. The only time yao has arms up is when he's trying to get a charge or stand his ground, but eaton seems like he played defense like the old intellivision video game men. His arms seemed to always be above his shoulders. Regarding a young shaq, if he has problems with a 37 yr old shaq , the young athletic,explosive shaq of 95 would really cause him alot of problems. I think shaq was one of the best trailers in transition ever. he would rebound and run down the middle of the floor and post up right under the goal. Once there, it was either a foul, a bucket, or both. Its always a debate, but who knows?
