Yao: too slow for offense, awfully slow for defense

It never ceases to amaze what people can read into things. The guy traveled halfway around the world in the last 24 hours and you expect him to not be tired? It doesn't mean he's not giving his best; it's just that your best after extreme jetlag and lack of sleep is less than when you are fully healthy. In game 2 of the Lakers-Kings series this year, when Kobe Bryant had the food-poisoning, he had one of his worst games of the playoffs, clearly did not have his legs (he said so himself) and the Lakers lost. It's not a matter of "sucking it up". He's sucking it up by merely being out there. But there are some physical limitations that obviously you aren't understanding.

Two things:

1. 7'5 > 7'1. There are other 7'0 players in the NBA. There aren't very many 7'5 players. Ming will have a defensive impact just by standing near the basket.

2. Wang can't communicate with his teammates. In an offense as dependent on communication and going to a set spot as the Mavs, there's only so much you can play a guy that can't understand English.

Oh, and that 21/21 game was documented in another thread. The Sharks lost because their perimeter players couldn't hit wide open shots from Ming when he was doubled and tripled. Is that his fault too?

 

Wait, I think you misunderstood. I can't wait until the season starts, not to see Yao fail, but just because I can't wait to see Steve & Cuttino. I'm not going to be rooting against Ming. I just don't see Ming being as good as you all say. I'm just disappointed with what could have been done with the #1. I have seen Ming play a CBA game online by the way as well as a few other game clips. I want what's best for the Rockets. It'd be great if Ming truly became great, I just don't see it happening. Sorry, if you feel differently.

I basically agree with what Pat said.

The point about Wang is that his stats were near as impressive as Yao's in the CBA and yet he doesn't look to have much skills that translate on this level. Same thing with Bateer. Even if Yao is 7'5" doesn't mean he plays like a center. Perhaps he will bulk up, perhaps he will learn some post-up moves, perhaps he will learn how to get position for rebounds against players that as of now are much stronger. Just because he is 7'5 doesn't mean he's immediately a defensive force. Yes he can get 2 blocks a game, but big deal.
We need a center who is a PHYSICAL presence on both ends.
Can he dominate the boards, truly intimidate and change shots, clog up the middle on the defensive end? On the offensive end a player who can do some high-post passing would be nice, but would be even better would be a consistent low-post threat.

 

Dallas and Nelson should be blamed for wasting Wang Zhizhi.
They did not trust Wang even he did good numbers. Wang was taught to only shoot 3s and refrained from defense close to the board. Any center coule be ruined in that team. Bradley is another example.
And Mavs team is having an ego cancer, Nick Van Exel. Let's see the collapse of mavs next season.

 

<i>The point about Wang is that his stats were near as impressive as Yao's in the CBA and yet he doesn't look to have much skills that translate on this level. Same thing with Bateer. </i>

Wang and Bateer were never ever considered to be the prospects that Yao is. They simply don't have as much ability and they aren't as athletic. Wang was a second round pick, Yao is going to be the first pick in the draft. That is a huge difference.

You can't simply compare the two guys stats in the CBA and say that since they were similar, then their NBA production will be similar. It doesn't work that way. If it did, then Juan Dixon would be selected before almost anybody in the draft. Scouts are judging Yao on how they feel his skills will translate to the NBA level.


<i>Even if Yao is 7'5" doesn't mean he plays like a center. Perhaps he will bulk up, perhaps he will learn some post-up moves, perhaps he will learn how to get position for rebounds against players that as of now are much stronger. Just because he is 7'5 doesn't mean he's immediately a defensive force.</i>

What does playing like a center mean? He will guard the oppositions center, he'll score points while shooting a very good percentage, he'll block shots and he'll rebound. How many 7'5" guys weren't a force defensively? Say what you want about Bradley, Muresan and Bol, but they they were forces defensively. It's just that those guys were all liabilities on the offensive end and those guys weren't even in the same league as Yao athletically.



<i> Yes he can get 2 blocks a game, but big deal.
We need a center who is a PHYSICAL presence on both ends.
Can he dominate the boards, truly intimidate and change shots, clog up the middle on the defensive end?
</i>

You're doubting that an athletic 7'6" guy will intimidate and change shots or clog the middle?


<i>

On the offensive end a player who can do some high-post passing would be nice, but would be even better would be a consistent low-post threat.</i>
</i>

Yao reportedly has low post moves with both hands. The question on him is if he is strong enough currently to get the position needed for those moves. I don't understand why it's so difficult to imagine that the guy will get stronger. Why is everybody so willing to assume that Eddie Griffin will bulk up and learn a low post game, but seem convinced that Yao will not get any stronger? Yao is ahead of Griffin physically and in terms of a low post game. Why not assume that both guys will improve?

Regardless of how much Yao improves strength wise, why do we really need him to be a low post player? Usually you want a low post player because they shoot a higher percentage. Well, guess what? Yao shoots a very high percentage right now. He shot over 70% in the CBA and 63.9% at the Sydney Olympics (against very good competition). So, if you're going to argue that he has no post game, then I'm going to counter with the fact that he must be a GREAT shooter. If you're shooting those kind of percentages and your not posting up, then you're a special shooter.

Now, if Yao is that great of a shooter, wouldn't it be advantageous for the Rockets to use his away from the basket? You still get a very high percentage shot, but you also open up the lane for Francis and Mobley. Isn't that the best of both worlds? Why have him post up consistantly? Then teams can still defend us by packing the defense into the lane. That makes it difficult for Yao to post up and difficult for Francis and Mobley to drive. Aren't we back to the same situation that we currently have? We end up with a bunch of poor shooters taking outside shots. Wouldn't it be better to use Yao out high and make it a "pick your poison" situation? If you leave him open, then he'll nail the jumper. If you come out and play Yao, then you open up the middle for the guards to go to the hole. That's not even factoring in the possibilities for the pick and roll with Yao and our guards.

 

AELLIOTT

Great Post

The Odom People Say Mings isn't a post player
but
Neither is Odom. . .neither are the people they
wanna pick along WITH Odom.

The Post Presence issue is not addressed by them at all
ONLY to say Ming does not have one

Rocket River

 

Not an opinion I think is shared by most. Certainly not by anyone in the NBA.

Chris

P.S. Aelliott, awesome post! I agreed with all of your points.

 

The Cat have you seen him play?

 

<i>aelliott, I agree that Ming is a better prospect than Wang. But IMO that's not because of his skills, speed, but solely because of his height. Wang is better than Yao in speed and skills.</i>

Wang was a 2nd round pick and Yao will go #1 overall and the only difference is their height? That's ridiculous. If Wang, a 7 footer, had Yao's skills and athleticism he'd be a lottery pick, not a 2nd rounder.


<i> Wang and his team dominated Ming and his sharks for several years while Wang was playing in CBA.</i>

And from every report I've read, the Red Army team was vastly superior to Shanghai in talent level. So what does that prove? The Orlando Magic got dominated by many teams last year, but that doesn't mean that those teams had players better than Tracy McGrady.

<i> Wang played center all life in CBA, he won dunk contest, he was the god of BBall in China for some years, so I guess he did know lots of moves down low.</i>

What does winning dunk contests and being the god of bball have to do with playing down low? Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant both won the NBA dunk contest and were both gods of BBall, but they weren't low post players. Heck, even Spud Webb and Dee Brown won the dunk contest. Generally, guys that play down low don't do well in dunk contests. Have you ever seen Shaq or Duncan in a dunk contest? I'm failing to see the significance.

<i>
But yet he couldn't translate them to a higher NBA level. What makes you think Yao can? Because of his height? That helps a little, but not much. History tells the story.
</i>

Let's see, Wang was a 2nd round pick and he's played a grand total of 60 games. First of all, just making a roster is pretty good for a 2nd round pick. He's already exceeded expectations. Secondly, don't you think that after only 60 games, it's a little early to be passing judgement one way or the other?

So, if the NBA evaluated Wang and made him a 2nd round pick and he's performed at that level or better, how does that indicate that Yao won't be successful? Those same NBA scouts are evaluating Yao as a high lottery pick. If they were correct about Wang (or even underestimated him), what makes you think that they aren't correct about Yao?

<i>
About the low post presence. Sure it's nice to just shoot the crap out of the opponent from outsite to win. But unfortunately, most people know in crunch time, shots won't fall and it's not dependable. You NEED someone to be down low to win NBA game ( and even more so for NBA title ).

About his high shooting %: it will drop dramatically AND he will have problem to get shots off under the quich and rough defense. Don't you think Wang wanted to shoot more? then why coundn't he?
</i>

Most people dont' shoot the ball as well as Yao either. The guy has shot an incredible percentage at every level that he's played. If he's hitting a high percentage on 15 to 18 footers now, why won't he hit those same shots in the NBA?

If he's got a low post game at 7'6", then he's going to get his shot off no matter what and be unstoppable. If he doesn't have a low post game and he's shooting those percentages, then he's money from the outside. Either way it's great for the Rockets. One of two things will happen: 1) The opposition leaves him open and he'll knock down the shot or 2) they come out to guard Yao and open up the lane for Mobley and Francis. That's the basic premise of what the Rockets have been trying to do for the last two years. He's the perfect guy for what we need.


<i>
About the Olympics game we used to measure Ming: Olympics Basketball games are JOKES, compared to NBA. Those teams are there because they are champions of each continent (region). Other than the teams from Euro, others sucks. Ming's numbers were accumulated through playing against those teams. It really not a HIGH level competion. The Euro league is MUCH better than Olympics, folks.
</i>

This is the same Olympic competion that was beating our collegiate players every year, so we had to start sending the NBA guys? If Ming rang up his numbers against Angola and such, then I'd agree that they weren't meaningful, but that wasn't the case. Who did they play? Let's look:

They played 6 games at Sydney. The faced the Gold Medal winning USA team, the Silver medal French team, the Bronze medal Lithuanian team, the 5th place Italian team, Spain (9th) and New Zealand (11th).

How about the World University Games last August when Yao and the Chinese team defeated the USA? Are they a joke also?

 

Nope, but there's usually reason to be optimistic about a 7'6 center with loads of athleticism, a great shooting touch out to the three point line, a 72% field goal percentage, and good rebounding and shotblocking skills. Especially so when your team is really hurting in several of those areas. Thinking that a 7'6 center with those talents will be a good player isn't too much of a stretch. Thinking that a 7'6 center with those talents will be a complete flop without ever seeing him play is a little ridiculous.

Rocket River, you hit the nail right on the head. I had a thread on that a few weeks back... I'm not so in love with the idea of drafting Ming that I wouldn't ever consider a trade. If the Blazers were to consider rebuilding and talked to me about a Rasheed Wallace, I would definitely listen. Is there a chance that Ming's not the low post presence we need? Sure. But at least he has a chance to become that... Lamar Odom addresses none of those concerns. And no, Hilario's probably not the answer either. After the first few picks, the draft is like the lottery, considering how little college experience these kids have. Look at all the highly touted big man prospects in the last couple of years in the 8th pick or lower... Diop, Rodney White, Etan Thomas, Joel Pryzbilla, Jerome Moiso, etc. It's questionable that they'll ever turn into a good low post presence, and it's pretty certain that it won't come that soon. If you trade for Lamar Odom, your thinking has to be to win now, and I highly doubt a 19 year old Nene Hilario is going to come in and be that low post presence you need. If you want to trade the pick, I understand talking about Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace. But Lamar Odom doesn't make much sense to me...

 

The word SPEED mentioned in the same context as the names of Cato or Collier is really funny. So they are going to blaze past Ming, I don't think so. Please name all the FAST centers in the history of the NBA. This is not a position usually associated with SPEED. Hakeem was quick, but fast? How about Kareem or Wilt? I thought Walton was great once he established himself in the post, but he did not jet up and down the floor. Sabonis was hardly a sprinter. Shaq is light on his feet for his size, but is he fast? Most centers trail behind on fast breaks.

 

Some of these post are just to get a response which is cool, but some of the notions and comparisons are crazy:

Shawn Bradley: He didn't play basketball for 2 yrs while on his mourmon mission. Shawn came in at 245lbs and never ate well to gain the weight (see Pat Croce) . Even with all that going against him in the center strong era, he avg 10pts 6rebs and 3 blks. He played against Mourning and Shaq as up and comers and Hakeem,Ewing,and Robinson in their prime and still put up those numbers on a no talent philly squad. Here we have a guy with the same height, 50 more pounds ,a better athlete, more skilled and has much more experience against better players and some think he will be on the bench and can't at least put up Eddie Griffin starting type numbers? Some will say anything for attention.

 

By that rationale, shouldn't Manute Bol, Gheorge Muresan, and Shawn Bradley all be #1 picks then?

So what does that prove? Tracy McGrady was the best player in that series, but since his supporting cast couldn't do anything, the Magics lost. Therefore, the best player don't always win. Which explains why the Sharks lost to the Red Army.

You guys sure expect a whole lot from 2nd rounders huh? By that rationale, Najera must be one heckuva disappointment. So what if he's a role player, and do good things off the bench. Well if the Mavs want to dump him, the Rockets will sure accept Najera with open arms.

So, if we trade for Odom instead of picking Ming, we'll be a championship contender? Well, that's news to me... 25 years old is still pretty young in basketball age. I'm sure that Wang will be even better once he gets some more experience.

It's kind of hard to truly succeed if you're playing behind a guy called Dirk Nowitzki. Also, the coach won't experiment you at your true position. I don't think Wang has had the opportunity to succeed.

He ran the court pretty well in the workout. He sure looks helluva quicker and faster than both Cato and Collier. Boy, Pau Gasol sure looked uncomfortable last year. Also, I wonder when Stojakovic, Nowitzki, and Turkoglu are going to stop having problems. So Ming has never been really tested with a tough NBA defense, and that means that he'll never be good enough to compete? Ming is one talented mofo, he'll need his time to develop, but I don't have a doubt he'll be solid.

Please, I'm sure the Olympics committee agreed whole-heartedly that they should make an exception for basketball and allow professionals. I'm sure the main motivations were USA crying to the committee and to raise the TV ratings for the event. Show me an article that proves what you're saying, and I'll eat my words.

Sounds like a pretty good squad to me. I'd have to think that the US team was the favorite to win the game.

 

I disagree, Ming will be great, but he will never be me!

 

OldManBernie--Actually that US squad was pretty crappy. Antwain Barbour, Andre Barrett,Earl Barron,Lonny Baxter ,Dan Dickau ,Juan Dixon ,Melvin Ely ,Lynn Greer ,Roger Mason ,Chris Owens ,Justin Reed,Tyler Smith.
How many of those guys were all-americans at some time?
Chris Owens, Dickau, Dixon
How many of these are first-rounders?Dickau, Ely
How many of these guys are lottery players?None
This team is not very good, sorry. Especially for playing against "Pros" and losing by a point.

Wang sucks, sorry. You don't think Nelly saw what he could do in scrimmages and practice? In the NBA he's too slow, too weak, lacks the aggressiveness. HE can make improvement obviously and he can stay in the league as a spot-up 3pt shooter. A liability defensively. HE does have one nasty head fake though...

aelliott--I'm just curious, how much do you expect out of Yao. You obviously think he's going to have an immediate impact. What do you predict his stats to be in rookie and 3rd year. I don't think he's as great a shooter as you do, but anyways...if his shot is money as you say... how many points do you expect, how about assists since that'll be his double threat? How about rebounds???

 

Well, everyone seems to agree that it is preferrable to have college experience instead of foreign or namely Chinese playing experience to prepare for the NBA. Wouldn't that alone give the US team an edge in the games? Owens, Dickau, Dixon, Baxtor, and Ely are all studs compared to the rest of the Chinese lineup.

Wang moves pretty well I think for a 7 footer. Add in the fact that he can actually take someone off dribble on the perimeter, that'd make him a pretty good prospect IMO. I don't care if the player is from college, high school, or even China. Unless you're super talented, it's going to take you time to develop. 60 games total is simply not enough.

I know that you're asking for aelliott's opinion, but I'll give you mine anyway . He is a great shooter, but he won't be able to score inside right away yet. He'll shoot a sub-par fg% (between 40-42). However, he will relearn how to use his size eventually, and I think by the 3rd year, he can hit about 50%. Rebounding-wise, he'll have to get a lil bigger physically, but I have no doubt he can pretty quickly pick up on how to box out and such. Assists will depend on how many touches Rudy T will allow, so I don't know what to say.

 

<i>
Quite opposite. It's not rediculous at all. You know people say " you cann't teach height", do you? How do you justify many players getting into NBA draft with laughable skill level? Seems like I am talking some obvious things with you here. But not my fault.
</i>

Let me get this straight, you're saying that Yao is getting drafted #1 overall simply because he's tall and that his skills are laughable? Is that correct? If that's the case, then you are completely wrong and I can give you 20 or so quotes from NBA scouts/coaches/GMs that says Yao has tremendous skills.

Or are you saying that Yao does have skills, but Wang Zhi-Zhi has equal ability, but was drafted much lower simply because he was shorter? If that's the case, I'll also disagree. Despite being shorter than Yao, Wang is still a 7 footer. If he's a 7 footer with skills equivilent to Yao, then he's a lottery pick. If he had those skills why would he not get drafted over the likes of Frederick "Vince jumped over me" Weiss?

Big men are the most prized possession in the NBA. If a 7 footer has skills, teams will kill to get them. How do you explain Wang going in round 2? Other teams spent 1st round picks on 7 footers that couldn't play immediately, so why not Wang?
He simply wasn't that highly regarded.

Which is it? I'm not clear on what you are trying to say. Are you saying that Yao doesn't have skills or that both Yao and Wang do have skills?


<i>
McGrady was not a #1 pick.
</i>


You are correct, McGrady wasn't a #1 pick, but what does that have to do with anything? You were implying that Wang was equal or better than Yao simply because his team had beaten Yao's team. I was using McGrady to point out the fact that a team's success doesn't neccessarily have any correlation to which individual player is better. It had nothing whatsoever to do with the #1 pick.



<i>
You are making up thing here and showed that you were not following Mavs. WANG has NOT reached people' expection at all. I am not going to list all the articles, all the Don Nelson predictions, and all the media hypes here. You can verify that with any friends who lives in Dallas.
</i>


Let's try this again. Wang was a second round selection, correct? I think we can agree on that.

Now, what is your expectation of a second round pick? In general, second round picks are lucky to make the roster.

I'm sure Nelson hyped Wang alot, that's his job. But the fact of the matter is that he was the 36nd player selected. At best a 2nd round pick is a project.

I'm pretty sure that I didn't make up the fact that Wang was a 2nd round pick. I'm also pretty sure that I'm not making up the fact that 2nd round picks are projects. So, what exactly was I making up? If you choose to believe some Dallas marketing hype, then I'm sorry, but the facts are the guy was a 2nd round pick.


<i>
again, Wang has NOT "performed at that level or better". I wonder where you got those idea. Certainly not by watching Mavs' games.
</i>

Ok, let's review what I said: "if the NBA evaluated Wang and made him a 2nd round pick and he's performed at that level or better"


Now, was Wang a 2nd round pick? Yes he was.

Is he in Dallas' rotation? Yes he is.

A second round pick that is part of the rotation is exceeding expectations.

The Rockets have the 38th pick this year. That's one player past where Wang was selected. No matter who they take at that spot, if that player is in the rotation in 2 years, then he's exceeded expectations. If somebody hypes up a second round pick too much, don't believe them.



<i>
I think I have given the reason repeatedly. Why do yo ask again? Ok. Because his relative lack of speed and tough NBA defense makes it difficult to get the ball at position and release the ball comfortably for him. All foreign players has that problems in their first and seconde years, at least.
</i>


You're missing my point. Either the guy is going to get wide open looks or it's going to open up the middle for Francis and Mobley. Either way, it's great for the Rockets and improves us greatly. Nobody is asking the guy to go 1 on 1 and put up 30 shots a game.



<i>
again, you are making up things. That is pathetic. Quite opposite, in Olympic history, US collegiate players beat other countries and won titles frequently. And don't forget those other countries were all adult national teams, not college players. I guess you don't remember the famous US-USSR game and that period of time? The reason why US sends NBA players: It's not because US got beaten every year, IT IS because the Olympics committee invite US to do that, in order to show case the highest level of BBal skills and hence to boost other countries' BBall development in skills and strategies.
</i>

Please, don't tell me you are serious. The amateur teams had been losing in international competitions and that's the why the professionals were sent to Barcelona in '92. We took the Bronze at the Olympics in '88 and teh silver in '82. Our win at the World Championships in '86 was our first win at the World Championships in 32 years. We had been defeated in 5 straight Pan Am games ('74,'78,'82,'86 and '91). The US invented basketball and losing was embarassing, that's why the Dream Team was used, to bring the gold medal back to the US.

This link sums it up pretty well:

<b>
Basketball was our sport, invented in this country and dominated throughout the years by the Americans. When we came home with a disappointing bronze in the 1988 games, the Americans decided to do something about it. When the International Olympic Committee decided to let professionals play in the 1992 games, NBA commissioner David Stern had a bright idea. He put the NBA's finest in the Olympics to bring the gold medal back to its rightful home in the U.S. and conveniently promote the NBA to a world audience at the same time.

The Americans set out to show the world that we were the best, and we did just that. That summer, the world was thrilled when they got to see legends such as Jordan, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird play together on the same team. The world was treated to seeing how a fast break should be run and what a real slam dunk should look like. They also got to see some things that weren't as thrilling, such as 60-point blowouts and Charles Barkley elbowing a skinny African dude.
</b>

http://www.newu.uci.edu/archive/1999-2000/winter/000117/s-000117-olympicdream.html



<i>
It was a 83-82 close game. China had Ming, Wang and Bateer and other veteran. US had: Antwain Barbour, Andre Barrett,Earl Barron,Lonny Baxter ,Dan Dickau ,Juan Dixon ,Melvin Ely ,Lynn Greer ,Roger Mason ,Chris Owens ,Justin Reed,Tyler Smith. Are these US squad who lost by 1 point our best college players? I don't think so. It showed that Ming's game has a long way to go.
</i>

Those guys aren't better competition that the CBA? You were saying that Yao's competions was a joke. Well, those guys aren't a joke. That team had the two best players from this years NCAA champions and a couple of more first round draft picks. That's not a bad team. Nobody is trying to say that that is the best US team, I was refuting your point that Yao's international competion had been a joke. It hasn't been. The guy shot a great percentage and he played against all three medal teams at Sydney and he played against that USA Basketball team.

 

<b>The point about Wang is that his stats were near as impressive as Yao's in the CBA and yet he doesn't look to have much skills that translate on this level. Same thing with Bateer.
</b>

That's not true AT ALL! Bateers stats weren't as good, and Wang was much better then Bateer and Ming blows him out of the water in EVERY stat except scoring. Wang scored 1 ppg more then Ming, after that Ming had better FG%, rebounding, blocks, and FT% then Wang.