Regarding the minutes per game concept - redeeming is right on. It's not as simple as it might appear. Consider a comparison of Yao's ppg compared with minutes played. I've tweaked the moving avg trend a bit (12 games) to smooth out the curves a bit. I've highlighted two interesting observations. (1) Yao's ppg remained pretty steady while his minutes played increased between the 80-100 game mark. (2) Around the 104 game mark and beyond Yao's ppg increases while his minutes played decreases. This would indicate that for most of the 05-06 season Yao's production doesn't necessarily follow his minutes played. Overall if we're looking at his total average minutes played it has increased as well as his production. However that's the trouble with using total averages in analysis - it doesn't give you any sense of trends like the above graph does.
Nice works Tango. The graph you just put out is really like icing on the cake. I shall also point out if one were to subscribe to ymc's assertion that Yao's increases in PPG and RPG this season compared to those of 04-05 season are automatically linear functions of Yao's increased PT, one should also apply the same assumption to Yao's other stats. With a look at the PF and TO one can certainly tells Yao's "negative productions" remain virtually unchanged, indicating Yao is more than a mere robot. It's true we are somewhat disappointed at Yao's decreasing BS (pun unintended), but we can make a rather convincing case that Yao has been playing with "controlled aggression." I submit most fans would take Yao's increases in points and rebounds over his half a blocked shot less per game. Oh lastly, I am not overly worried about Yao's FG percentage. Fifty plus percent shooting, while not spectacular, is perfectly respectable, especially when the FG percentage of his team is taken into consideration.
Firstly, thanks a lot for these graphs. Very interesting stuff! But when you make graphs only focusing on 12-game averages, it makes sense that there might be certain abberations. Yao might have been extremely hot in some games, or he might have been extremely cold in others. Other variables factor in as well. But over the 82-game schedule, however, these factors tend to even out and more minutes should result in more numbers, assuming a player's role and abilities remain the same.
Going with a 12 game avg is intended to smooth out the aberrations. If I left it at 5 games their would have been more peaks and valleys. Yes assuming a player's role and abilities remaining the same. That's what I'm wondering if Yao is turning the corner. He's definitely playing more aggressively since the beginning of the season. Since he's been back from injury is his performance an aberration or not? Time will tell but from what it appears to me it may not be.
The one missing factor is the competition that Yao played against. Teams like Phoenix make it much harder on Yao, where teams that play him straight up like the Clippers make it easier for him. Quicker and smaller teams give Yao fits. DD
Isn't that the point of normalizing the data accross 12 games? Over 12 game increments, he should see a good representation of opponants and the graph will be more representative of Yao's production rather than anomolies of his opponants. Tango, since you are using last year and current year stats, can you put in a line indicating the break between seasons? I seem to recall a pretty strong trend of Yao's production trailing off towards the end of the season. And it looks like your graph of last season confirms that. I hope we don't see that again this season.
Some of the posters assume that with a 10 percent increase in Yao's minutes, there should be an increase in scoring and rebounding, all while keeping field goal percentage high. This ignores the concept of diminishing returns. The more minutes Yao has, the more touches he takes, the more energy he expends. The more he scores, the more other teams try to shut him down. This is why comparing him to his field goal percentage from 2 years ago doesn't make sense. Becoming more dominant means taking more shots. These shots won't always be sure things, unlike the wide-open shots Yao used to take. I cringe everytime Yao misses a shot, but I don't even worry when T-Mac misses. We expect him to hit everytime, but part of being dominant is forcing the shot even when it is a difficult shot, because that one miss forces the defenses to adjust and frees up shots for your teammates. The more time Yao forces a shot through the double team, the better he'll get at it, and the more we can punish people for double teaming him.
i've got no formal education, so this doesn't make sense for me. What is the 5th polynomial stuff all aboot?
You might want to check your rebound data - it appears you have the Clippers game in as a zero rebounds, right next to the Suns -0- rebounds game. In fact Yao had 12 rb's vs the Clips. It should help Yao's 4 game trend avg.
It's just a way to smooth out the data, so it's easier to see what the trend is. For instance, you could simply do a "line of best fit", which of course is just a straight line (polynomial of degree 1). But 5th order polynomial will show a lot more information.
krosfyah - updated graphs below with the season dividing line. Yao took a dip in the last 3rd of the season but rebounded a little after the last quarter of the season. richirich - thanks for catching that! Graphs have been updated. I had numbers that were reading as text. Hate when that happens . pradaxpimp - sorry to make this appear complicated. As durvasa says there are different ways to trend the statistics. If we tried to connect the dots between the actual stats we wouldn't be able to make any sense from it. Drawing a trend between the dots helps to see what's going on. Some folks in the past have asked what method I used to trend so I just listed the methods this time. Anyhow besides the trending I've also updated the ppg/mp comparison to help us see what's going on clearer by drawing a red halo around the ppg line. Notice the difference between 05-06 vs. 04-05. It's much closer to and crosses over the 21 ppg line than what it was in 04-05.
One thing I have noticed is that Yao is learning how to tip the ball to himself a little better. Meaning he doesn't necessarily have to grab the rebound on the first try, instead (as in the the game against Golden State) he can use his height to tip the ball a couple times to himself before finally pulling it in...In the past he wasn't as successful with this method, but either he's gotten the hang of it or figured a better way of tipping it. Stuart
My YAO RANT - What I'm starting to notice is Yao is the best center in the game and no single player can stop him when he's determined. Not saying he can outjump others for rebounds like a KG, not saying he can outmuscle like Shaq but I am saying that if Yao's on his game, there is no single player in this league that can stop him. No player his size has EVER shown the skills and bball IQ that Yao has. No 7'6" guy would EVER have been asked to jump out on the guard at the 3-point line. Yao is rare and will continue to become more rare. However, there is one thing I know - the next time Yao has a 8pt - 6reb game then..."He sucks and we need to trade him for someone like KG." KG one year - Dwight Howard, Okafor the next...PF are always coming out. You may never see another player of Yao's size and skillset ever to hit the court again. He is simply the best player at his position - period.
QUESTION: What is YAO's Chinese commitments this summer? That worries me. Rocket River . . him to improve so . . only to be threw back into the grind
The world championship, same as top American players, not sure if TMac is on the US Team (would be interesting if they faces each other).
Too bad, this summer is big for the CNT because of the World Championship. So I think Yao will be spending a lot of time going thru the training, pre-WC games. It is said the Dream team will have a game against China in China before the WC.
Play and practice with Deke day in and day out definitely has something to do with it. I Hope Yao can pick up some Deke’s elbow tips as well.
