Yao Ming's Rookie Year "Expectations"

"experts," in any field, are correct something like 30% of the time.

i stopped listening to what "experts" say.

 

I remember some analysts predicting Yao would be a bust on the LaRue Martin level of busts. Certainly Shawn Bradley and Rik Smits were the two names most universally used when comparing what Yao might become.

Dicky V
CB4
Bill Simmons

Those are the guys that I remember as slamming Yao the worst when he was first drafted. I think Simmons is the one that brought up the LaRue Martin comparison. Simmons has since come out and admitted that his prediction that Yao would be a bust was one of his worst predictions of all time.

 

Dick Vitale.... the guy's about as knowledgeable on the NBA as i am in quantum mechanics.

 

Of course, Yao was underhyped, underestimated and underrated at the draft by the media. The GMs though are different, but many of them still had doubts.

But people always have a different memory about what they have said before. If the facts are different from theiry memory too much, they feel very very very uncomfortable (like kissing a donkey), that's what is happending now.

 

The guy who did the Sporting News's radio coverage kept repeating that "5 years from now, Yao Ming will be the biggest bust in NBA history". He tried to get every person he talked to to agree as well.

 

Well you're undoubtedly right that there was a lot of Yao-will-be-a-bust buzz when he was drafted, there was a lot of Yao hype as well that I think you're in danger of forgetting. The bust talk was in reaction to a lot of Yao hype. The Yao hype came from the high expectations from the Rockets, NBA GMs, and Houston and Chinese fans. Not to mention there is a certain amount of expectation that automatically comes from being a #1 pick. Expectations were high and the analysts at the time were having a good time trying to rain on the parade.

Even so, Yao fulfilled those expectations a couple of seasons ago. People who were paying attention saw him prove his meddle some time ago. And, this season (well, after the ASG last season) I think he's really surpassed what we could have hoped for on draft night. I suppose the difference is that even the people who are paying no attention, the people who would say 'bust' in the face of all evidence, even they must admit he can kinda play.

 

Yeah, I would like to see the media reports around the time Yao was drafted.

 

^ Totally agree with Juan Valdez on this one. As much revisionist history around here regarding "underhype" of Yao there is a lot of revisionism regarding how much Yao was hyped.

People forget that Yao was almost universally predicted to be the number one pick people don't make that prediction without a lot of hype. Certainly many were saying he was going to be a bust just as many were saying this past summer Vince Young was going to be a bust. Its a counter reaction to the hype about Yao.

Yao was controversial no doubt but the picture that many here on CF.net are painting is that Yao was universally dissed by the media and 2002 and now the whole media is eating crow. While certainly many are but there are many who also thought Yao was going to revolutionize the game.

 

That's wrong. The GMs and scouts rated among the top 3 on average and that's their job to rank players. I won't call it hype. The media apparently didn't like it so they underhyped and underrated Yao, it is not their job to win or lose anyway, they can do whatever they like.

 

Just did a quick search looking for articles around the draft and found this one calling Yao a career backup.

http://www.allsports.com/cgi-bin/showstory.cgi?story_id=30721

Edit: Here's another article

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=53758

 

Well,here are some Bad predictions about Yao with the links in it.

In some of the worst predictions since the press picked Dewey to defeat Truman on the night of the 1948 elections, we thought we would hold some so-called “experts” accountable for what they said about Yao during the time Yao-believers knew he was the real deal.

Andy Munger, in an AllSports.com column , 5/3/02 :

“I think he will make a career backup, not someone worth to be a top ten pick…

“Yao Ming may not even make the CBA. He is perhaps the biggest hype the NBA has seen for a long time. He may be able to penetrate inside against Japanese or Korean players in international play, but does anyone really think Ming will move by Shack? The best thing for Yao to do would be to stay over there and get a nice job dropping his dream of playing in the NBA…”

“He is soft on top and will not be able to handle the NBA defense or pressure play…”

“His best hope would be to enroll in college and trying to improve his soft game before attempting to embarrass himself in the NBA.”

Editor’s note: Munger wrote the following in his December 12th column :

“I have to admit I thought Yao would be another Manute Bol and he has proven me wrong. Yao has quieted all his critics about his ability and potential to be an impact player in the NBA…”

“The Houston Rockets knew what they were doing when they drafted Yao Ming.”

Bill Simmons, ESPN.com, May 2002:

“Years from now, we will remember ‘Yao Ming over Jay Williams’ the same way we remember ‘Bowie over Jordan,’ ‘Traylor for Nowitzki,’ ‘Carroll for McHale and Parish,’ ‘Aguirre over Thomas’ and every other great draft day blunder in NBA history. I’m not just predicting it, I’m guaranteeing it.

“Think about it. At best, Ming develops into a bigger, more athletic Rik Smits. Fine. But then you throw in Yao’s adjustment problems (going from China to the United States — yikes), his laid-back demeanor (what happens when NBA players start pushing him around, elbowing him and intimidating him?), his inability to play in the low post, and the way he’ll struggle fitting in with his teammates, as well as lofty expectations, inevitable problems adjusting to a higher level of competition, the fact that NBA players will go out of their way to dunk on him (just like they did with Shawn Bradley — and they ruined his confidence, too), the isolation of playing here, the meddling Chinese government … I mean, did Smits have to deal with any of those things?

“Can’t you picture Shaq rubbing his hands together and saying, “I’m going to dunk on that Chinese guy as much as humanly possible next season”? This is a disaster waiting to happen. Repeat: This is a disaster waiting to happen. I feel very strongly about this. Just wanted to get that heard before the jury.”

Editor’s note: Simmons wrote the following retraction in his January 6th column:

“I’m an idiot. Forget about Yao’s emergence as the most polished rookie big man since Brad Daugherty, or that he offers the first worthy challenge to Shaq since Hakeem was still The Dream. If you’re a basketball fan, you love Yao Ming. He’s a godsend, the best Chinese import since General Tso. And I thought he’d stink. I may as well have predicted that Vin Baker would be the missing piece of the puzzle in Boston or the Blazers would be a team you could be proud to bring home to Mom.

“Like many hoops junkies, I now stalk SportsCenter every night for a Yao fix. Exceptionally well schooled and mobile, he affects the game at both ends like nobody since Bill Walton. His turnaround jumper — a borderline work of art — might be the most unblockable move since Kareem’s skyhook. And when was the last time you saw a 7-footer start fastbreaks with 50-foot jai alai passes, or find open teammates with backdoor looks? In the Me-Me-Me NBA, that stuff isn’t supposed to happen…”

Dick Vitale, ESPN.com, 6/21/02:

“I still feel that Yao Ming could be the second coming of LaRue Martin, the big man who was a first-round bust of the Portland Trail Blazers in 1972.”

“My gut feeling tells me the Rockets are making a mistake, baby, in evaluating their overall No. 1 pick. Still, Rudy T could shock America by having NBA commissioner David Stern announce Williams’ name as the top pick. Then Houston would be moving toward the winner’s circle.”

Bob Wolfley, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (click for article ), 6/25/02:

“If you had to predict where Yao will be five years from now in the National Basketball Association, it’s easier to mount the argument he’ll be closer to being Kent Benson or Pervis Ellison or Ralph Sampson than Kareem Abdul-Jabbar or Hakeem Olajuwon.

“If you’re 7-5 and you’re not a shot-blocker or a game-altering defender, then what are you?

“A bust from a would-be Ming Dynasty is what you are.”

Editor’s note: Wolfley wrote the following in his January 20th column (click here for the entire retraction — use login of ‘antfarm@bugmenot.com’):

“Back in June, this corner was referencing busts from the Ming Dynasty. Now? It’s closer to Yao as in Yeoooww. Rhymes with Wow.”

Ronald Tillery, Memphis Commercial Appeal, 11/10/02:

“They call Yao Ming ‘The Next Big Thing,’ but he looks like the ‘Next Big Stiff’ … The Chinese government may want to go to war after Shaquille O’Neal puts a hole in Yao’s chest. He’ll have an average NBA career.”

“…In the meantime, try to hold on to your cookies while watching Yao ‘Can you say Foul?’ Ming.”

Editor’s note: Tillery wrote the following in his January 12th column:

“I’ll eat a little crow. I’ll join Charles Barkley in saying that I was wrong about the No. 1 overall pick. Thank goodness I avoided saying that I would kiss a part of the body where the sun doesn’t shine to make my point. Looking back, my main view was that Yao would be average at best. Premature. He’s going to put up big numbers at this rate. That is, if the Rockets ever figure out how to use him. Against the Griz, Yao put up a double-double in less-than-dominating fashion. But he did alter my opinion of him because of his work down low.”

New York Daily News, 11/10/02:

“The Rockets gambled on Yao Ming in the draft and so far it’s looking like they crapped out.”
Bob Matthews, Rochester Democrat and Herald, 11/10/02 :

“The Great Wall of China is among the Seven Wonders of the World. Yao Ming becoming an All-Star caliber NBA center would merit consideration as the eighth. I’m glad I wasn’t a scout who recommended that the Houston Rockets select the 7-foot-5 Chinese center No. 1 overall in the 2002 NBA draft.”

Editor’s note: Matthews wrote the following in his January 12th column:

“I couldn’t have been more wrong in my premature evaluation of Houston rookie Yao Ming. He’s one of the NBA’s three or four best centers already and should be a dominant player for at least a decade. But if Shaquille O’Neal can’t be excited about playing against Yao in this game, and doesn’t dominate his much younger and inexperienced opponent, the Lakers are in worse shape than I think they are. ”

Charles Barkley on TNT, 11/14/02:

“Yao Ming makes Shawn Bradley look like Bill Russell.”
Randy Brickley, Arizona Republic, 11/15/02:

“…Inside of three or four years, (Yao will) probably be history.”

“It also brings to mind an interesting question: How do you say LaRue Martin in Chinese?”

“A master of almost no facet of the game, Yao makes Martin look like another historic basketball figure, Wilt Chamberlain. Manute Bol has a better chance of playing hockey than Yao does of having an All-Star career…”


And here is what GM was thinking.

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^ oh man people are really harsh on that guy in the forums. Saying he's goinga get shot and no one likes him. Guy made a mistake. Then at the end of the comments he just got defensive. If someone was telling me i'd get shot one day, i'd get defensive too.

 

yao was considered a bust before he ever played a game.

once he played and showed that he had skill, he became overhyped. it was then that people went to the other extreem and said "well he should be dominant then".

i thought that was funny because a few months ago he was worse than shawn bradley now you're upset that he's not shaq?

ever since his rookie year he was compared to shaq. was amare compared to shaq? no. was it because his game is too different and yao is too similar? that's just stupid. maybe it's because if your on sportcenter every night you are your own player and don't have to be compared to anyone.

i'd like to know how it is that a guy who was supposed to be rik smits ended up being compared to the most dominant player of this era for his whole career. that's just nuts.

why isn't dwight howard being compared to kareem? that seems just as fair. maybe chris paul should be compared to magic johnson...

i've never seen that kind of pressure before. notfor a guy that was supposed to be the equivilent of RIK SMITS!

 

I can you for sure that is not true. At the fist place, most Chinese fans around me at that moment didnt expect this much from Yao. Our only hope was that he can be a solid starter in a medicore team.

 

By the way, the draft class on that year is weak. Besides J. Williams, there is no other good alternatives for the #1 pick, Houston didn't need J. Williams because of Steve. Nobody knows about Amare anyway. So Yao as the #1 pick is a calculated risk. Given the information at that time, there is no really good alternatives unless someone wants to argue for Dunleavy.

Then why is the media so against Yao and even continuously doing so given that weak draft class? Remember that weak class has not produced anything other than Amare and Yao.

You have to ask why? I can think of 2 reasons. One, Yao as the first #1 pick from overseas, this has to hurt someone's feeling because of Xenophobia. That explained the initial underhype from the media. If someone says that's because Yao has not played and people don't know about him that much. That might be true to some extents, but remember that draft class is very weak, even if you don't know Yao much, Yao's reward-risk trade would still make most rational people think hard about him because there is no other good alternatives except for J. Williams. Houston didn't need J. Williams unless Houston wanted to trade the #1 pick.

Reason two, there is no doubt racism/black pride/job loss thinking in it especially given there is no other good alternatives from that draft class except Amare. Commentors like Barkeley are worried about a great job loss for black people from a new wave of Asian players even though it is not going to happen.

If you want to argue against me, make sure you understand that draft is a weak draft that has not produced anybody else except Amare.

Given that weak draft, even Yao has 16-8, he can still be a #1 pick but I bet he will be hammered on a extraordinary proportion even though there is nobody else to pick from given the information at that time.

 

On TNT, Yao went from "he couldnt score more than 18 pts a night" to "we all know he is a scoring center when he entered the league, but his 26/10 arent as dominant as Dwight Howard's 17/13 a night". So at least you see there is some progress on TNT.
Also, Yao's comparison has been upgraded year by year, first he was compared to Shawn Bradley, and he will peak Rik Smits level. No more that kind of talk anymore. Now is that he is not as good as Shaq whatever many points scored on him because Shaq had 3 rings. Dwight Howard will surpass him. So there is some progress at least.

 

Even this season, most players won't admit that Yao has improved. I remember quotes from Shaq, Duncan, Eddy Curry all saying to the effect of, "Yao is still the same..."