You posted my thoughts exactly. Regardless of whether Yao would rank up with the greats or not, I would love to see him compete under the pre-zone rules.
Actually, I think Dream would still do quite well by today's rules. True, he wouldn't be able to get as many touches in the low block. But he would come out and get the ball from 15-18 ft. He could shoot that midrange shot if the defender didn't come out, or drive right by him if he did.
Good post. I agree whole-heartedly on Shaq. He changed the game. All the great players change it. Goaltending-never heard of until Wilt. Just as Hakeem tore up Shaq during the Jordan era, Shaq would have torn up Hakeem during "his" era. The Shaq era is dominated by a huge man, committing a lot of offensive fouls that are not called. To even out the playing field, the officials decided to let more hacks go on big men such as Shaq instead of keeping the game clean. Now, we are in the post Jordan and soon to be post Shaq era. They've changed the rules again to favor the perimeter players, and do away with all the pushing, shoving, and hacking out there that Jordan himself brought into the game. There again, superstar player. They're not going to foul Jordan out on all those pushes, bumps, and hacks he committed on the perimeter. Now that he's gone, they've tightened up all that stuff to get the ball moving and increase offense around the league. But Shaq is still playing down low so the big men defensively get away with so much contact on each other it's not funny. They only get called if some perimeter guy comes driving inside. Then the big guys get rung up. The game is all about protecting the Lebrons and Kobes of the league. If you put Yao back in Kareem's era, Yao would have dominated and pushed Kareem aside. They have about the same floor quickness and remarkable the same 'natural' game, playing cerebrally, passing out of the doubles, and using their skillset to their prime advantage. Oh, Kareem would have got his too. They would have both thrown up about 26 a game on each other and negated each other. In the Hakeem era, Yao would still have been dominant because of the rules not allowing the zones and the front and backs. He would have struggled against Hakeem because of Hakeem's quickness and hops. But he would have still got his points against the rest of the league. And the arguement would be about who was better him or Hakeem. Hakeem would dominate him on the boards though and be a more intimidating factor defensively. However, Yao is not in his prime yet. If you put Kareem in today's game, I think Yao dominates him. Kareem would be the same version as Yao except 4 inches shorter. Do you really think he could waltz through the lane and sweep that big old hook shot up today with all the help defense swiping the ball from the backside? Yeah, he would have been great today, but not any more dominant than Yao. WHat would Kareem do against SHaq? He'd fold like a pretzel the first time Shaq hit him in the solar plexus during the Shaq era. But, if you put Shaq back in Kareem's era, Shaq fouls out in 18 minutes max. Either that, or he has to limit his physicality and Kareem still gets his points. The Kareem era was when they still called the "over the back" foul. It was the most common called foul. Now, we get the "loose ball foul" maybe 2 or 3 times a game. Back then it was 10 to 15 times a game. So aggression was not the rule that worked back then. It was intelligence and positioning. Players like Shaq, Amare, etc. jumping over people and pushing them under the basket on the rebounds would be riding the pine in the seventies. So, it's hard to compare. But the one consistent thing is, there is always a dominant big man. We are moving from the era of Shaq dominating the paint to the era of Yao dominating the paint. Not taking anything away from Duncan, but he is not a true paint player. He prefers the wing and 50% of his offense comes from the wing. I'm talking about dominant centers. There is a 1a for every era and it seems a 1b for every era with 1b eventually becoming 1a to the next 1b. Wilt, Russell, Kareem,Walton, Moses, Hakeem, Shaq, Yao. That he's already in that lineage is a complement to him. He may be 1b to Shaq's 1a but not for long. He'll be even better in the future and if we can get a couple championships, people are going to be putting Hakeem on the backburner the same way we do all the old greats. We have already forgotten in this town how good Elvin Hayes and Moses Malone were. Those were 2 great players. Hakeem practically erased their memory with the championships, but those are 2 of the best basketball players to ever lace them up in Houston. Moses used to dominate a young, skinny Hakeem down there at Westside. He was unstoppable, in fact making Kareem look stupid at times. Eventually Hakeem made him look stupid at times. Yao has already made Shaq look stupid at times. And Shaq has made him look stupid. Times they are a changin and Yao is on the uptick while Shaq is on the downside.
In other words, Dream would be about like KG. That is still excellent, of course, but not one of the top 5 of all time.
No. Dream would be like KG's midrange game, with Duncan's low post game only better. Dream would have been great in any era. And regarding Yao, I firmly believe that if he played in the 60's and 70's he would have put up Wilt and Kareem type numbers. With defenses that weren't as sophisticated as today, and defenders that generally didn't have the length or explosiveness of today's players, Yao's turnaround-J from a 7' 6" frame would have been as unblockable as Kareem's sky-hook. And if he played in the 80's-90's, Yao certainly would have been a step above guys like David Robinson and Patrick Ewing. Regarding Yao vs Hakeem, I think they both would be able to get theirs, and score on each other. Yao wouldn't have embarrassed himself, but Dream would probably come out ahead in that matchup.
Given today's rules, I'm not so sure that Dream would have bothered developing his low post game. I remember Dream catching lots of lob passes over his fronter, but today he would have a backer too, and he would be stuck like the beef in a sandwich. But you could still be right. Dream was so intelligent, he might have figured out a way to shine even with today's rules.
Isn't it great to have this problem? Once again having a good center who hasn't reached his potential yet? Houston's definitely been spoiled by a history of great centers. What fans of other teams wouldn't give to have a conversation like this.
jopatmc, that was one of the best posts i have ever read in my 7 years on this bbs. question: how do you think the nba will adjust its rules in the upcoming "yao era"?
It isn't just today's rules. The truth is that there aren't many players with good post- up skills anymore. Duncan, Yao, Amare and...anyone else come to mind? Most players are happier facing up trying to drive to the basket.
amare stoudamire does NOT have good post up skills. he is a great leaper. he has an adequate jumper. he is an athletic beast. but he does NOT have good post up skills.
Right now, this league is in a state of flux with the 2 dominant teams (Pistons and Spurs) and their stars. Duncan is a great player, he's got his rings. I think he may get one or two more, and Detroit is 5 very good players that play great as a team. But none of them have the dominant type personality to grab and focus the attention that the NBA has had in the past with such personalities as Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, Magic, Bird, Isaiah, Charles, and on back to Dr. J, and those guys. Those guys, especially Jordan, Magic, and Bird, made non-sports fans watch the game. Yao has the potential to be this kind of attraction because of his Chinese descent. But, he will have to keep up his recent aggression because he will need it to dominate the American game and attract the American fans as well as the world wide fans. Kobe, to a certain degree already has world wide appeal but he will be limited because they just don't have a very good team. Same thing with KG. What I am trying to say is, the bent of the rules in the NBA is going to follow the most marketable superstars. Sorry, but that's the way it goes. The style and rules and officiating of the NBA changed to help Magic and Bird, they changed to help MJ, and they changed to help Shaq. Stern understands money and marketing. He understands how to create great drama and how to create great superstars. So, in the future, the ideal scenario unfolding would be a dominant team in the West with a dominant big man and a dominant perimeter player matching up with a dominant team in the East with a dominant big man and a dominant perimeter player. What I see is this. For Yao to become a dominant force, he has had to take a step back defensively and not be as aggressive so that he could stay out of foul trouble. He's had to let a lot of that guard penetration go so that he could stay on the floor and help his team on the offensive end. Now, if he keeps up his recent play, you can slowly see he's starting to get SOME calls on the offensive end. He's not getting all the calls he should be getting yet, witness last night and Camby hitting him on the wrists about 3 different times on shots with no foul called. But he is getting more foul calls his way than he had been getting. And as time goes on, he will be able to start being more aggressive on the defensive end without getting called for all the ticky tacky bullcrap they have been sticking him with. Witness the block on Andre Miller last night. I'm sorry but up until about a month ago, he would have gotten called for that foul 9 times out of 10. But, he would have also gotten called for fouls early and established a rep with the refs for that game. Now, he is not allowing himself to pick up cheap fouls early and it is allowing him to be more aggressive late. Down the road, he will build up a reputation of not having foul troubles and he will be able to be even more aggressive even earlier in the games without worrying about the ticky tacky calls. That's where I see some rule changes or at least interpretation of the rules being changed. That being when a much smaller player comes to the hoop and thinks they can just throw down on Yao, they're not gonna get the bail out foul call if Yao goes straight up and the penetrator initiates all body contact. That call will change to favor Yao and will decrease all the dribble penetration significantly. That along with they will start calling all the bumps and hacks and slaps by the defense when Shaq is gone and they are trying to clean up the play in the paint. I don't know if they will actually change the rules for the defenses much. I think the league likes being able to come up with all those gimmick defenses to slow down superstars. But when Shaq is gone and is replaced by a technically superior assassin who plays the game with his mind and not just his brute strength, I think the whistle will blow down there and a lot of that hacking slashing pushing pulling garbage will stop. The league ideally wants free flowing basketball with spectacular dunks and blocked shots and speed. In that environment, Yao will thrive, because he is not by nature a bully, despite his size. That's why it's taken him so long to become aggressive and dish out contact. He's not gonna cheat. He knows in his mind that the rule book says it is a foul for you to create contact on an opponent. Just watch him on the jump ball. He won't go up early and steal it because it's just not legal to do that. Even though the refs don't enforce the rule, he doesn't break it. I think when Shaq is gone, the league will recognize that simple mentality and call the game tighter and it will favor Yao just like it favored Kareem and MJ. Because of the combination of Yao and McGrady, we've got the ideal setup for the future if they can stay healthy. THere are no other centers or dominant big men that can come close to Yao. KG is a hybrid. Duncan is a PF. He's not a 5. He cannot guard Yao. The ideal scenario would be for KG to go East and team up with Lebron somehow. Then you've got a great combo working in the East along with a great combo in the West. Miami is over the hill. Shaq doesn't have a lot left in the tank. The equation is just not working over there to make them dominant. They're gonna be left at the alter. Wade is a great player but he isn't Kobe or Lebron. He's aggressive, he goes to the hole incessantly, but he cannot rain down those jumpers like Kobe or even Lebron. While Lebron's jumper is nowhere near Kobe's right now, it is way better than Wade's and he's bigger than Wade. Lebron will be deadly from all over the court in a couple years and I really expect him to win the MVP in the next couple years. But still, on the interior, he's got Big Z, a good player, but not a great player. Z does not nor can he dominate in the paint like Yao. All this talk about the league doing away with the post game is overblown. The post game will be back, better than ever, when the refs quit swallowing their whistles down there. The back to the basket player may be out of style right now but it is just temporary. Basketball has always been a big man's game.
I'd have to disagree after averaged in the upper 30's in last year's playoffs. He showed some very good footwork on the inside.
Just a while ago,you called him a bust ? Tide is changing too fast. You may suspect you are on a wrong site. Yao is far from Dream's class now. He may be there someday.
chicken and eggs. Back in 80s and 90s most PF/C today would spend more time on postup skills, which was so effective at that time.
jopatmc, thanks for the excellent response. it makes me think about 1994, when derek harper sodomized kenny smith in the finals. the handchecking was so controlling that it brutalized not only kenny smith, but the game itself. of course kenny smith is not the reason why the nba cracked down on the handcheck the very next season. he's not a superstar. however, it did help that it was the nba finals - the grand stage - where a player was getting steered like a Big Wheel. the league cleared that up and perimeter play started to open up. recent rules changes, as you pointed out, have furthered perimeter play to such a degree that little men are the "in thing". question for you... do you assume that yao will be accepted publicly (casual fan) and privately (among players) and corporately (nba as a business) as the "best big man" once shaq retires? how does his chinese descent factor into it? to me, it's a huge detriment to his being accepted privately and publicly. corporately, it's a huge benefit, though.
ok, think of it this way... if amare were slower, would his moves be effective? good footwork is effective at any speed - fast or slow. amare used his speed, brute strength, determination, and athleticism to absolutely obliterate tim duncan. in fact, if you think about it, tim duncan has never been the same player after the suns series. he sucked, imo, against detroit. this year, if you've watched him, he's a shell of himself. the team says it's injuries, which probably has some merit, but i also think there are some psychological things at work...as if he all of a sudden saw, and sees, his basketball mortality. he is not the de facto best post player in the nba anymore...
Big men these days don't spend time on those skills even though they have the talent. Thus there are few big men these days with excellent post up skills. Garnett would rather shoot jump shots or fadeaways. Where is the chicken or egg part of this analysis?
Well everything is less effective when you are slower. Duncan you agree is a great post up player, but his moves are not as effective when he is slowed by injuries. Amare is much more than athleticism, speed, and strength. Lots of guys in the NBA have those qualities and can't score 37 points a game or whatever it was. Swift can't even average 10, and he is just as much of a leaper. Ben Wallace, Camby, Chandler, Curry are strong and pretty athletic but dont have the offensive skills that Amare does.
