[YAHOO] Player Spotlight: Tracy McGrady

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=fanball-playerspotlighttracy&prov=fanball&type=fantasy

Player Spotlight: Tracy McGrady

by Court E. Mann - Associate Editor, Fanball.com
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
In a season of unparalleled player movement, the NBA's two-time defending scoring champion changed teams and conferences. And still, a blockbuster trade involving two of the league's premier players barely registered, because as the world turns in Los Angeles, so do the days of our hoops' lives.

Tired of the Magic's losing ways, sick of his one-man show, ready to win that elusive NBA ring, guard Tracy McGrady demanded a one-way ticket out of Orlando—and got just that when the Rockets acquired him for guards Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley, among other spare parts.

Now he joins budding superstar Yao Ming to form the most compelling marriage in the Association, especially in the wake of the messy divorce between Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal. While there is little doubt that the trade will benefit T-Mac's professional career, you can debate what it will mean for his fantasy value.

In the Magic Kingdom, McGrady reigned supreme. When he signed a free-agent contract and left the Raptors, he and Grant Hill were supposed to become the greatest perimeter tandem since Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. Hill's injuries never allowed that to materialize, and T-Mac had less help than any superstar in the NBA over the past two seasons.

While leading the league in scoring for the second straight season—and it wasn't close by the way, he won it by 3.7 points per game—McGrady led the league in shot attempts, which he also did in the 2002-2003 campaign. He ranked second in three-point attempts, a year after hoisting up more from downtown than all but two NBA players. Over the past two seasons, he has ranked second and ninth in the league in freebie attempts from the charity stripe.

In addition to the astonishing scoring numbers, McGrady literally played every role for the hapless Magic. Point forward, shooting guard, floor general, you name it. He led the team in points, assists, and steals, and was not far off in both rebounding and blocked shots.

In short, T-Mac's one-man show was a boon for his fantasy value. He was forced to do everything for a terrible team that couldn't defend anyone and constantly found itself in up-and-down affairs. It's the very same situation Kobe Bryant now finds himself in without Shaq and the very reason that many are expecting a huge statistical season from His Majesty.

In Houston, however, McGrady has not only traded his solo act for a tag team, he is suddenly no longer his team's primary option. Jeff Van Gundy's offensive scheme runs through Yao first and foremost. McGrady himself knew that when the trade was approved by all parties, has confirmed that to be the case since, and has reportedly accepted the sidekick role (so far).

With that in mind, there's almost no feasible way for T-Mac to match his gaudy numbers from the past few seasons—totals that made him a sure-fire, top-five selection, if not No. 3 overall, on fantasy draft day.

If you can't imagine such a statistical depression, look no further than Stevey Franchise's numbers since Yao and Van Gundy arrived. In 2001, Francis was a consensus top-10 fantasy player, averaging almost 22 points per game while hoisting up 18 shots and 7.4 free throws per night. Two years later, in his own season of discontent under fantasy despot Van Gundy, he regressed all the way to 16.6 points, 14.1 shots, and 5.5 free throws per outing. His rebounding totals also dipped significantly, from seven per night to 5.5.

It should come as no surprise whatsoever that those developments coincided directly with the onset of the Ming Dynasty. Last year, Yao took three more shot attempts per night in his sophomore campaign, and there's little doubt that Van Gundy would like to see his 12.5 attempts and 33 minutes per game take another step up in his third year. As far as the coach is concerned, the road to a title leads straight through Yao, and his dump-it-in offense reflects that philosophy.

It's clear that McGrady's fantasy value takes a hit in this climate. The question remains how big that hit will be. He won't come anywhere close to sniffing the 24 attempts he averaged last season, and the seven three-point attempts he jacked up on a daily basis would send Van Gundy to an institution. At the same time, it's hard to imagine McGrady finding only the 14 shots per game that Francis did, especially considering the Rockets lack that third option that Mobley served as a year ago. We'll split the difference between Franchise's 14 and T-Mac's 24 from a year ago and given him about 19 per game—fewer than he's had in every season since leaving Toronto.

Both Francis and McGrady struggled mightily from the field last season—Francis because he never found his spots in Van Gundy's system and McGrady because he was forced into taking too many bad shots. Assuming he remains satisfied playing second fiddle to Yao—which is no small assumption, especially if the team underperforms—there's no reason McGrady can't bounce back with a 45-percent shooting effort. He's a better pure shooter than Francis, and he's converted at or slightly above that clip in five of his seven seasons.

With 19 attempts and 45-percent shooting, T-Mac can still put up 23-25 points per game, assuming he gets to the line at least six times per night. In 2001, he averaged 26 points per game on 21 attempts, 7.3 free throws, and 45-percent shooting.

Now that we've established that his scoring is destined to dip, let's take a look at the other critical fantasy categories. As Francis' numbers fell in the rebounding category, so too will T-Mac's. With Yao patrolling the paint, the need for McGrady to board simply isn't as dire as it was in Orlando, where he pulled down eight caroms a night in 2001. For the fourth straight year, McGrady's boards will come down and settle right around the 5.5 mark Francis set a year ago.

For the same reason, don't count on T-Mac helping you in the blocks category much. As he's been worn down by carrying the Magic on his back, those numbers have regressed since a career-high (and rather remarkable) 1.9 per night in 1999. Simply stated, McGrady has never had a big man behind him, and he will be more than happy to defer to Yao in the paint, both in terms of rebounding and blocked shots.

Tracy has hovered right around 5.5 assists per game for the last three seasons. Of course, Ming's presence down low gives him a target he hasn't had, and he's been flashing that Kobe-to-Shaq, drive-the-lane alley-oop thus far in the preseason. Francis posted just more than six dimes a game over the last two seasons, and Kobe (albeit reluctantly) has recorded between five and six assists per in each of his last four seasons in a similar role. We'll give McGrady a shot at slightly improving his assist totals, but not appreciably.

The only categories that T-Mac stands to improve on then are field-goal percentage (last season's 42 percent was by far a career low) and steals. McGrady has always added a little over a steal per night to aid fantasy owners. Van Gundy will not only insist that T-Mac improve his defense, but Yao's presence down low affords the luxury of taking the occasional gamble in the passing lanes. A run at two swipes per night is not out of the question; he pilfered 1.7 per two seasons ago.

In light of the above, where does that leave T-Mac on draft day? In the Magic Kingdom, he fell no lower than the fourth pick in most fantasy drafts. Ironically, he probably still cracks the top five in most formats. With 24 points, six assists, five boards, two steals, and the occasional block on tap—not to mention 45 percent from the field, 80 percent from the line, and approximately 110 threes—it's difficult to allow Shaq (think free-throw percentage), Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitizki, Andre Kirilenko, or LeBron James to leapfrog T-Mac in the first round. Just don't be shocked if, when all is said and done, he's much closer to that pack of performers than he is to Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, and Kobe Bryant.

It's more of a fantasy slant, but a good article none the less.