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[WSJ] Nuggets Win With Instinct, Rather Than Spreadsheets

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by durvasa, May 19, 2009.

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  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I thought this was an interesting article on the Nuggets management. The team they've assembled this year is terrific. I was as skeptical as anyone over the collection of characters they had just a season ago, but with Nene and Martin healthy, Birdman joining the team, and a shrewd exchange of Iverson for Billups, everything seems to have come together perfectly.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124269925054533267.html#mod=todays_us_personal_journal

    Chapman insists that the Nuggets work more on instinct than anything else. Perhaps true, though I'd add that they do have in their employ Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper, who's very well regarded in the advanced statistics community. Oliver was actually on that MIT panel with Daryl Morey, Cuban, and others a few months back.

    [rquoter]
    By MATTHEW FUTTERMAN

    The Boston Celtics have the former NBA all-star Danny Ainge calling the shots. The Houston Rockets have Daryl Morey, a statistical whiz with an MBA from MIT.

    The Denver Nuggets, meanwhile, manage with a five-headed beast whose most influential voice comes from a guy who broke into pro basketball as a financial planner. Somehow though, as the NBA's conference finals begin, the Nuggets look like the deepest and possibly most dangerous team standing. With 54 wins in the regular season and convincing victories over the New Orleans Hornets and Dallas Mavericks in the first two rounds of the playoffs, they now take on the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday night in Game 1 of the conference finals, the team's first in 24 years.

    Few people are more surprised than most of the folks who run the Nuggets. They don't describe their success as the inevitable result of a carefully designed strategy. Rather, in an era when sports executives like to play themselves off as masters of mathematical analysis and risk management -- and in a year when most NBA teams chose fiscal prudence over expensive superstars -- the Nuggets are an anomaly. They owe their success to a bizarre combination of luck, good health, opportunism and a management strategy that is more six-shooter than Six Sigma.

    "I promise you there isn't another franchise in the league that works the way we do," says Bret Bearup, the franchise's "adviser," a sort of diplomat without portfolio who derives his substantial influence over the team's moves from his 11-year friendship with owner E. Stanley Kroenke.

    Mr. Bearup, a former financial planner for athletes, isn't the Nuggets' only contrarian element. With few exceptions, (last season's champion, the Celtics, acquired two mid-career superstars in the off season of 2007) most NBA franchises build slowly, adding parts each year to an expanding core. Since 2002, dating to former general manager Kiki Vandeweghe's regime, the Nuggets have had a revolving door, with stars Marcus Camby, Allen Iverson, (the first two picks in the 1996 draft) and Kenyon Martin (the top pick in 2000), among those who have tried out for the role of franchise lynchpin. Only Mr. Martin remains.

    "You try not to get frustrated because you know it's a business," says Carmelo Anthony, the team's sublime 6-foot-8 forward who is averaging 27 points per game in the playoffs. "But my past five years, I had a lot of different players I played with."

    Also, in an era when numerous NBA teams horde draft picks like precious family jewels, the Nuggets trade theirs like baseball cards. They sent 10 picks away in the past five years to acquire the current roster, including three future first-round choices to land Mr. Martin.

    "I wish I could tell you we knew it was going to turn out this way, but we really didn't," says Rex Chapman the team's vice president of player personnel.

    Finally as nearly all sports executives rely increasingly on statistical analysis, Mr. Chapman says the Nuggets act on instinct rather than spreadsheets. "When you are talking about chemistry and camaraderie, you have to," he says.

    ...
    [/rquoter]
     
    #1 durvasa, May 19, 2009
  2. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

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    Many of their players are severely underpaid for their talent level. Their owner and GM probably love this whole thug image they have. Similar to Ron Artest and Stephen Jackson, their players are only getting paid around 75% of what they would be if they had a better reputation.
     
    #2 pmac, May 19, 2009
  3. saintja2

    saintja2 Contributing Member

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    Many?

    I would maybe agree on J.R. Smith but who else?

    Birdman is going to get paid after the season. And you would have to been on crack to actually give that crackhe.. ahem him more than the minimum when he got back to the league after suspension.
     
    #3 saintja2, May 19, 2009
  4. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    Money ball is over rated in the nba. Sure you can get good value with players, but if you want to win you better have stars.

    You can do all the analysis in the world, but other than the pistons who weren't a moneyball team all the teams to win have been the team with the best superstar/superstars.
     
    #4 Air Langhi, May 19, 2009
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Do you think the Celtics had the best superstar/superstars last season? Garnett, Pierce, and Allen are all very good, but before last season I think most had them pegged as second tier stars.
     
    #5 durvasa, May 19, 2009
  6. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Most people had KG pegged as a top-level star. His trade to Boston was the most talked-about trade in years. Some would have put PP in that class. Very few would have pegged Ray Allen as elite.
     
    #6 A_3PO, May 19, 2009
  7. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I remember a lot of people being down on Garnett before last season. Those who could look past the terrible team he had around him could see what a special player he was, but I think he was at the bottom or outside the top 10 on a lot of people's lists.
     
    #7 durvasa, May 19, 2009
  8. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    #8 SamFisher, May 19, 2009
  9. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    Well maybe they are second tier stars, but PP is/has been pretty damn good, and as a combination I think they easily outranked any other team.
     
    #9 Air Langhi, May 19, 2009
  10. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

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    Other than KMart and Melo, I'd say everyone else in their rotation is underpaid this season.

    Anderson, Smith, Nene, Billups, Jones, and Kleiza all would make much more if contracts were based solely on current talent.
     
    #10 pmac, May 19, 2009
  11. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

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    Those were generally people who put team success as a priority when ranking players.

    There's really not much bad you can say about KG in his prime. He rebounded well, he scored, he got his teammates involved all while playing great defense. If someone could list 10 better players in his era I'd like to see it.
     
    #11 pmac, May 19, 2009
  12. Nuggets4

    Nuggets4 Contributing Member

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    The Nugs have been going after Lowry for at least 2 years now. I was heartbroken when we didn't get him and even congratulated you guys on that one. As for Artest, I'm not so sure the front office was as gung ho for Artest as everyone likes to think. They listened to what the Kings wanted but walked away pretty quickly from what I heard.

    Honestly, this season was lightning in a bottle. I just don't want it to end because I never thought something like this could ever happen.
     
    #12 Nuggets4, May 19, 2009
  13. K mf G

    K mf G Contributing Member

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    it's funny how management went on instinct and double booked the pepsi center for the 25th
     
    #13 K mf G, May 19, 2009
  14. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    JR Smith is a fine shooter, but he has no chance of stopping Kobe. Carmelo will have to play that role in addition to scoring. That's the key matchup. If Carmelo does a good job,the Nuggets will win.If he doesn't, the Lakers will come through.
     
    #14 saleem, May 19, 2009
  15. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    Wasn't there a deal on the table that included Kleiza, which ended up being the reason the deal died? Or am I mistaking that for another player?
     
    #15 Fyreball, May 19, 2009
  16. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    Pierce and KG combo makes it elite.
     
    #16 saleem, May 19, 2009
  17. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    it was instinct and two pretty easy teams they played to get where there at. it really sucks that the rockets lost to the mavs in the last game...
     
    #17 peleincubus, May 20, 2009
  18. Nuggets4

    Nuggets4 Contributing Member

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    From what I heard, and I could be wrong on this, the Nugs called up the Kings and asked about Artest. The Kings said they want LK. The Nugs said thanks, but no thanks. Considering the number of knuckleheads the team had last year, probably a smart move even though no one in their right mind would even hint at LK being 1/10 the player Artest is.
     
    #18 Nuggets4, May 20, 2009
  19. sbyang

    sbyang Member

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    It's hard to believe that Denver has a real shot at being in the finals. I still don't believe in this team, they seem kind of flaky to me. It's just that I don't believe in LA either, 2 soft teams with no defense in the Western conference finals. Cleveland is looking so good for the championship this year.
     
    #19 sbyang, May 20, 2009
  20. Nuggets4

    Nuggets4 Contributing Member

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    From Basketball-Reference.com:

    Denver's Defensive Rating: 106.8 (8th of 30)

    LA's Defensive Rating: 104.6 (6th of 30)

    I know you guys were #1, but holy crap am I tired of seeing the "Nugs play no defense" BS.
     
    #20 Nuggets4, May 20, 2009
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