Would you want to compete with about 2% chance of winning a championship?

At what point should a team rebuild? I don't like any of the options given. How about when the plan/roster you've put together has proven it doesn't work and it's time to start over with a new plan/roster; or when the lineup you've assembled hasn't worked out because of injuries or age or departing players. The Rockets are a work in progress right now. They haven't reached the point where management should decide to rebuild. The jury's still out. But I like where we're headed.

 

I don't think Morey fools himself into thinking that this current roster is a championship-caliber team. As everyone knows, he's been trying to get that second star player to play alongside Yao (third if you count Martin) for the past few seasons. He's collected numerous assets and on different occasions used them to make a play for Rubio, Nash, Stoudemire, Bosh, Philly's No. 2 lottery pick and Sacramento's No. 5 pick.

As long as Morey believes Yao can still play a dominant role, he'll continue to look for ways to bring that second star into the fold and make this team a contender without rebuilding.

If and when the Yao era comes to an end, however, all bets are off.

 

when you dont have more than 30 wins (with all your team healthy), you could consider the possibility to start rebuilding, seeing what free agents will be unrestricted the next year, or, how the draft class is coming.

 

You need to get into the playoffs first, which has a probability of 16/30.

 

If you believe Yao will come back in least as good if not better shape than he left.

If you believe this team took the Lakers to seven games and may have one with a healthy Yao.

If you believe in those playoff series Martin was better than any shooting guard we had back then.

If you believe that Ariza is overall better than Artest.

If you believe Brooks has improved considerably more since he shined against the Lakers.

If you Believe that Patterson and Hill can overall bring more to the backup PF spot than Landry.

If you believe or Bench of Lowry , Budinger, Battier, Patterson and maybe Brad Miller or better than our old bench of Brian Cook, Brent Barry and Von Wafer.

If you believe we are improved at every position. And we have trading chips including expirings and draft picks that be used in mid season trade and that Morey will figure out a way to correct any deficiencies we may appeat to have.

If you believe all of these things than scream out as loud as you can, "IDO BELIEVE, I DO BELIEVE! I believe my Rocket team will compete their hearts out for us and take us to the promise-land!Of

We are better than that team that took the lakers to seven without tmac, without Mutombo and even half that series without Yao. I guarantee you the team we are starting the season with would have wiped out that Laker team. Of course that Laker team is better too but they haven't improved that much. How can not have faith.

course you do not believe that because how else could you come up some stupid percentage number like 2 with the team that challenged the Lakers to seven games just the year before and happens to be much better today f. How can you underestimate the heart of our Rockets. We are not in rebuilding mode we are in tweaking mode for contention of a championship . And if you can't see that than stick a knife in your heart and pour some Rocket red blood in it.

 

i think losing on purpose or tanking is something that i dont ever recommend unless its the last 20 games of a season and ur guranteed no playoffs i say tank lol for a better draft position .i think that .u might as well get something atleast out of losing instead of ending up empty handed

 

I never understand why people think rebuilding is synonymous with tanking. We have rebuilt our team over the last four years without tanking. Shane, Yao, and Chuck are the only guys we have on roster from 4 years ago. We should continue to build while going for the championship.

 

Well IMHO not only is 2% small, its also an extremely negligible chance. Think about it you'll only win a ring 2 out of every 98 tries! I understand what you're trying to do however there's no need to say to try to average it out. As you said, the championship this year (barring injuries of course and wild card events) will go through the Lakers and Miami.

In the NBA, luck is mostly thrown out of the window via the 7 game series. Its not like March madness where one game decides your entire season. In the NBA, the better team almost always wins, unless the better team chokes for 4 games straight. With that said, the odds of winning are directly proportional to the strength of your team.

So basically what I'm saying is that the only thing we need to compute are the chances of winning against Miami and the Lakers in a 7 game series. I don't think the chances of winning against them is 2% small LOL. If Yao comes back at Big-Z level I think are chances of winning against the top team in a series is somewhere near 40%. That's the only thing that counts, % chance of winning overall is just noise as that 2-5% holds true for every other team in the league.

Excellent article and food for thought.

 

Excellent post, OMR.

I am a believer, though I never believed we had any real chances to get Bosh. I also don't believe we will get Melo either (hint: NY area).

IMO we are close, and it will depend on Yao's health. If he is good to go, I believe we will have an unbelievable season!

 

This team is poised and ready to strike. This talk of 2% chances and rebuilding is assinine. Read the sig!!

 

Sort of depends on what you mean by rebuilding. If we're talking selling everyone over 26 for 80 cents on the dollar, than never. However, if we didn't feel confident as a playoff team and didn't see a way to improve significantly within 2 years, I would be fine with making intelligent trades to become younger and plan for the future.

Now is definitely way too early to give up on a Yao-led Rockets team.

 

Heat - 20%
Lakers - 15%
Rockets - 10%
Celtics - 10%
Magic - 10%
Blazers - 5%
Thunder - 5%
Mavs - 5%
Spurs - 5%
Bulls - 5%
Jazz - 5%
Atlanta - 3%
Bobcats - 2%

The Rockets better compete.

 

Heat - 20%

Lakers - 15%

Rockets - 10%
Celtics - 10%
Magic - 10%

Bulls - 5%
Blazers - 5%
Thunder - 5%
Mavs - 5%
Jazz - 5%

Spurs - 2%
Nuggets - 2%

Hawks - 1%
Bobcats - 1%
Hornets - 1%
Phoenix - 1%
Milwaukee - 1%
NY - 1%

Teams in the East have lower chance to win because of the Heat.

 

Great thread topic and analysis. I had this exact same conversation with a coworker yesterday. The way I look at it is that this basic team took the Lakers to 7 games last year, with Artest, but without Yao.

By next playoffs, if Yao's healthy, we have Ariza and Kevin Martin but no Artest. Chase could also be a helpful factor. I think the rest of the players have certainly improved from last year's series - especially Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowery; Scola is more familiar with the league too. Factor in that Kobe is in decline as well.

Given all of this, I would certainly not give up on the core players of this team to rebuild.

The team still needs to deal with it's relative lack of length in the front court to defend and out rebound Gasol and Bynum, but I think if we can shore up backup center and add some size and defense to the 4 spot, we still have a shot at the title.

 

The rebuilding should have begun the moment TMac was counted out last year. I correctly predicted this team would rebuild before they would win a championship with TMac/ Yao- I stand by that and I am confident that in the final analysis this will prove true.

The Rockets should compete at their own highest level every season. I like parts of this team very much but cannot in good conscience place them with the Lakers, Celtics, Magic, Heat- contenders.

This team should be rebuilding and I am assuming that is Darryl Morey's current strategy.

For all those who dream this current team is going to win a championship this coming season I am all for that kind of miracle.

Reality says otherwise.

 

Right not especially here seems to be a rising number of NBA fans scattered throughout the league who believe that if you aren't a "super team" like Miami or a championship contender last year then you might as well call it quits now and rebuild.

 

You keep saying this...

they weren't THE favorite.

but they were among the favorites.

They belonged in the discussion both years simply for what they had accomplished the years prior to each championship.

This is very, very different from what we have coming up this season.

 

You never know what's gonna happen come playoff time...get yourself to the dance and let the pieces fall where they may. The Rockets Championships are a prime example of never giving up hope. The team didn't give up last year did they? They fought and clawed their way for every single win, without Yao and TMac. But somehow they managed. I would expect nothing less of these players and this organization this upcoming season. You play to win and you fight until there's nothing left fighting for.... otherwise, what's the point of playing and what's the use of being a fan.

Let's just give up before the season starts? Why? Because the big bad Lakers are going for a 3-peat? Because the heat have Lebron, Wade and Bosh? Because they are the only teams that matter now? Everyone should be afraid of them? Screw that, I say they should be afraid of us.