Would you trade EGo, CC, Rybo for two first round picks, Lebron?

Ok. So let's talk Chris Paul and money.

If CP3 had stayed in LA last summer he works have signed a 5-year deal with a 2017-18 salary of $35,700,000 and a 5-year total of $207,060,000. And he would have been 37 years old at the conclusion of that deal, one year shy of the over-38 rule taking effect. Yes, he could have possibly signed an extension two or three seasons into that deal. But what would be the teams incentive to magically offer him another year's salary of somewhere north of $40 million extended on to the back of his deal when he's 35? And they have him under contract two or three more seasons? Zero. What's the chances he'd get offered another $40+ million on a one-year deal at age 37? I suppose if he were on a championship team you could make a case that he might get offered that. But it's simply not very likely.

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So Paul, knowing this scenario, looked around, saw the state of his team, their cap limitations, how they locked themselves into virtually no cap flexibility to make any major positive changes and additions to the team, and he made the decision to get out, deciding to force a trade by telling the front office he was leaving. He scoped the teams and determined that we had the best chance to dethrone the Warriors with him on board and also the best cap situation to add another great player. He knew we couldn't sign him outright without gutting the team and limiting our own future.....so he forced a trade by telling the Clippers he was leaving. He then let them negotiate a trade to his team of choice sms he opted in to the last add-on of his deal so he could be traded.

That salary was $24,268,959. Paul gave up $11.4 million last season to come here?

But did he really?

Because now he can sign a 5-year max deal with max raises that carries him all the way to age 38 when the over-38 rule kicks in. He don't have to worry about being a free agent at age 37 and scrambling around for a few more million.

So, the reality is he lost NOTHING monetarily. And the case could be made very easily that he gained monetarily. I'm not even mentioning taxes and coat of living, plus better opportunity to win a championship, increase profile, and thereby increase off-court earnings.

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ASIDE: If you think we're not willing to give him 5 years then you simply don't understand what's happening here. Sorry. We're gonna give him 5 years if he wants it. Or if he wants a one-year deal now and 4 years next summer we'll do that too. The whole key is Harden and Paul want to play together. And the other key is our front office understands what it is going to take to keep Harden and have the best chance at winning CHAMPIONSHIPS.

(Which is why I'm spelling this out for you. It's about winning championships! Not about getting rid of Capela like some of you bozo clowns think. All my posts about Rockets roster decisions are about building a championship team. All my posts analyzing our talent are about building a championship team. That's why you have to read my posts IN THE MOMENT and recognize the circumstances when I'm writing them.

So take your "keep Capela at all costs" agenda and throw it out the window. Because wanting to keep Capela on a bloated salary when this opportunity is present isn't about winning championships. It's about your selfish stupidity.

Because a champion 5 IS Harden, Paul, Lebron, Tucker, Ariza. And a champion 6 IS those guys plus LMM. And if you replace Lebron with Capela it simple don't work!!!!! We are an also-ran. So stop with your Capela puke. If we have an opportunity to get Lebron and it costs us precious Capela we'r
going to do it. And Harden and Paul will choose LeBron over Capela and Gordon every day of the week.

Enough of the Capela crap. If you are stupid enough to think this is about getting rid of Capela instead of getting Lebron then you're not worth any mire of my time responding to you.

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Now that I've proven to you that Paul hasn't lost a nickel up to this point, let's look at the possibility of Paul losing money from here forward.

If the cap comes in at $101 million then Paul can sign a 5-year deal this summer for a total of $205,030,000 with a starting salary of $35,350,000.

I'm suggesting (IN THIS WORST CASE SCENARIO) that Paul may be willing to take a one year "Tim Duncan" special in order to facilitate a LeBron signing.

For practical purposes let's put that one year salary at $12 million. This would have Lebron taking a haircut at $30 Nikon on a one year deal, and Ariza taking a haircut at $5 million for one year. What does Paul lose in this scenario?

Well if the cap goes to the projected $108 million in the 2019-20 season he'll be able to sign a 4-year deal then that will carry him to age 38 for a total of $169, 344,000. Add $12 million to that and you have a total of $181,344,000.

It would cost Paul $23,686,000 over 5 years to add Lebron in this WORST CASE SCENARIO. LeBron loses $5 million.....max. And I could make the case he doesn't lose anything. Ariza may lose $5-10 million. I don't know. But I doubt Ariza loses anything. Since he's not a max player, his contract situation will be even easier to control going forward. I'm pretty confident that Harden and Paul and Lebron too would make sure he's around for the long haul.

Your can play with those numbers a bit if you like. But the general scenario holds. At $30 million for one year, Lebron can re-up at the max in 2019. And we've got Birds rights on everybody else.

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Now remember......this is a baseline starting point to acquiring Lebron (or possibly George or Durant or maybe some other great player while keeping our other four best players.

You have to show a legitimate path forward you a player like Lebron that gives him the confidence that he can compete for CHAMPIONSHIPS. That's plural. Not just a championship. But CHAMPIONSHIPS multiple. Once you show that WORST CASE SCENARIO path and he knows it....then he has the leverage to go to the Cavs and get them to consider trades that helps them a little bit mute than him walking away from them.

Because the Cavs do have to have incentive to trade Lebron over letting him walk for nothing. A trade has to put them in a better position to rebuild while recalling the luxury tax. Is that possible? That's the unknown. I'd say it's very complicated. A lot more complicated than the under the cap signing scenario I just laid out for you. Because both teams, us and the Cavs would have to benefit.

The bottom line here is IF Paul cooperates on his contract, then this scenario could unfold and it might be the best scenario we can achieve. And if this WORST CASE SCENARIO is actually the best we can do......then if healthy.....we'll be a better team next year than we were this year.

$23.686 million is chump change for Paul to play with two of his best friends and the top two players in the NBA ice the next 5 years. He'll do it.....IF HE HAS TO. And that's what it takes to make the trade talks go. Cacs have to know LeBron can walk here and is gong to walk here brute they'll start working on a trade. That's where everything starts.

I predict that shortly after the Finals are over that Paul will let out that he's willing to take slightly less than the max to bring in the right player to help us.


Now.........what if there was a way.......using this leverage.....to get both Paul and Lebron traded here while keeping our current big 3 of Harden, Paul, and PJ?

 

Dunno. Dunno know about health.

I will predict that 4 of our 5 best players will be Harden, Paul, PJ, and another superstar who can defend, shoot, and make plays. As to the fifth best player.....might be Ariza, might be someone else, and there's a small chance it could be Capela but that's a very small chance. Must likely PJ and Ariza are our 4th and 5th best players with a chance that Ariza becomes our 6th best player.

 

By the way....think about this. We sign LeBron outright, stretch Anderson, trade away Gordon and CC for two extra first round picks. Sign somebody(s) to the $4.5 million exception. Sign some minimum salary guys. We're out of the luxury tax....thereby pushing the repeater tax out another TWO SEASONS!
DJ and Melo opt in to their deals.....and then at the deadline one or both take buyouts. Do you think they'd be interested in signing here for the minimum to make a run? Others? LOL

 

I'm not being optimistic about LMM. I have no idea his market in free agency and what he's willing to do salary wise to be here.

As far as Trevor, I'm confident that if Trevor wants to play with these guys that there's enough flexibility between us and him that we could work it out.

And I'm certainly not opposed to trading Anderson and building the team out that way. Babe a specific trade and week break it down. But remember, in terms of taxes, repeater taxes, etc., the under-the-cap WORST CASE SCENARIO I'm describing leaves us out of the luxury tax altogether next season and pushes our repeater taxes out to five years from now......the last year of Paul's extended contract to age 38 and the last season of Anderson's stretch, which ask coincides with the end of Lebron, Ariza, others deals.

And keep in my mind my scenario leaves us with a full contingency draft picks AND two extra first rounders with which to do some Spurs-style player development.

So name your Anderson trade with the two draft picks that brings us LeBron and we'll analyze it and compare it to the above.

 

The weakest point of my proposed WORST CASE SCENARIO is what you're hitting on.

So I'll answer firstly by saying......would you do the deal I suggested if we only got one extra first round draft while keeping all our own?

For that matter let's consider Gordon. What if all we can get in a tight market is a high second rounder or a couple second rounders? Would you still do the deal wih no extra first round picks and just keeping our own?

Harden, Paul, Lebron, PJ, Ariza, the room MLE, minimum salary exceptions, and all our draft picks.

I would still do the deal......unless I see something better that was doable. K? So inother words is we have to let Capela walk and keep our picks, I'd still do that deal.

But let's consider Capela's restricted free agency.

First of all, he could jump out there the first day of restricted free agency and agree to an offer sheet. If we haven't completed a trade or trades before the moratorium them that puts us in a bind. If wet know LeBron wants to come and we can move Gordon and stretch Anderson and sign LeBron outright.....But we CANNOT generate a trade for Lebron before we have to make a decision on Capela........then in my opinion we have to let Capela walk. Gordon, Capela, and Anderson's dead money for Lebron????? That's a no-brainer to me.

So, what else could happen? Well, we could tell Capela we'll give him the max with 8% raises and the 5th season partially guaranteed. But we need him to wait until we've conducted our other free agent/trade business. This is a reasonable and customary way that restricted free agents are treated. That's more money than a max offer sheet. And he gets to stay at home......for a little while.

We could also tell Phoenix that we'l match an offer sheet but if they'll duo a sign-and-trade for a future first rounder that will sign-and-trade him to them....If they are indeed willing to pay him the max. If they agree, we can tell Capela that we'll match an offer sheet but if he waits we'll sign-and trade him to Phoenix. If he agrees then Phoenix drafts Doncic, we trade them Capela, and they've got a decent core they're with Booker, Capela, Doncic to start moving towards the playoffs.

Restricted free agency is tricky. And we can match....play him for a season, then trade him somewhere else.......where he may not want to go. If he wants Phoenix and they want him...I think the odds are they'd give us a future first with lottery protection of some short.

All the same....If we have to let him walk to get Lebron to walk here.....I'd still do it.

 

Nitwit,

learn the spelling at least.

Come on @kevC. Let's talk Rockets championship basketball and real possibilities here instead of just throwing crap out in an attempt to derail legit conversion. Be better than that. K?

 

Just sad. I'm talking about building a championship team with the two best players on the planet and one of the greatest point guards in history in between them. Shaking my head at the childishness. This is not about my alleged undervaluing of Capela (and Gordon). It is an indictment on your overvaluing of Capela.

Go ahead and tell me that if Capela stood in between us acquiring Lebron or not that you'd rather keep Capela and pass on acquiring Lebron. Go ahead and show me how stupid you are going to be here. I dare you.

 

I've tried to respond to get to get you to talk basketball. One more nitwit response that isn't a serious psi about basketball and the team here and I won't respond to any more of your stuff. Not worth my time.

Once again and for the last time to you, let's talk about the possibility here of acquiring Lebron and what the team will look like and what's possible after (or before or along with) Lebron.