The Astros had two guys that were considered aces (Oswalt, Miller) at the time, another potential ace (Redding) with an ERA in the mid-3s, a solid number 4 (Villone) and a number 5 who won 15 games. Are wins indicative of a pitcher's quality? No, but they can indicate how much more room a team had to grow if he were replaced, and in the Astros case in 2003, not a lot. Baseball this decade is full of parity. Two-thirds of the teams in the league can claim in a given year they could've gotten one step further with "one extra player." But you can't go out and do it every year, because outside of NY/Boston, there are certain financial and talent realities that make it impossible. It's not particularly frustrating for player, because I can guarantee you, having been in that clubhouse on a day-to-day basis, that most players do get it. There are just a few spoiled brats like Wagner who don't, and they end up making asses of themselves.
It feels weird for me to say, but I'm completely on the Cat's side on this one. When we were evaluating the Jennings trade at the time, I think most on the board thought it was a worthwhile risk. Jennings was a good, young pitcher, durable, established, and filled a definite position of need. The guys we let go all had potential, but Jennings was coming off a 3.78 ERA season in 212 innings, in Colorado. If you're going to use hindsight with Jennings, then you have to use hindsight on the guys we gave up, too. They've all turned to garbage. And Willy T was never that good, to be honest. He's a leadoff hitter who doesn't draw walks and an OF who doesn't hit any HRs. And his one trick game has officially run its course. Bourn is better now than Willy ever was. It looked to be the classic "give something to get something" trade, but in hindsight it was garbage in, garbage out.
First of all...I can only go by what the market dictated at that time and you are telling me that Billy Freaking Wagner could not have gotten you more then a 4 or 5 starter and 2 prospects??? He was the best closer in the game ,not named Rivera, coming off a sub 2 era season while converting 44 of 47 saves!!! Second...HELLLLOOOO of course I am an arm chair guy unless you are Ed Wade, Tal or Drayton who makes the calls we all are, come on you are bashing me for my opinion please I may know NOTHING in yours but darn I've watched MLB and Astros ball primarly for 23 years and actually also worked for them for a stretch so I do know how all that works and trust me when I say those comments pissed him off as Uncle D was and is all about public appeal! Third...My whole argument was not about whether we should trade the dude or not, its that we should have gotten more!!! Of course we had Lidge and Dotel ready to take over but I believe in there eyes he needed more time or they would have stuck him in there right away...Wagner should have closed and Drayton cut corners somewhere else I believe but if they did trade him I would have wanted more!!! Finally...you meantion the Phillies, Lee, 04-06 and all that nice stuff but remember the Phillies had one dominiant starter and didn't advance in the playoffs until the rest of there rotation cheaped in...did you watch the 08 series they were low scoring games throughout with the exception of game 4 and it was the Phillies who scored 10 runs...Rockies did make the series until there pitching went crazy in September of 07 and the Cards where carried by there pitching in the 06 playoffs to the title...The Stros where carried in 04-06 by there staff and made the NLCS, WS and within one game of the division in 06 since Lee got here we were 73-89, decent team in 08 who came semi close and one game under this year! I LIKE DRAYTON HE IS THE BEST OWNER WE HAVE HAD JUST TO MAKE IT CLEAR BUT I THINK WE SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN MORE FOR ONE OF THE GREATEST CLOSERS OF ALL TIME!!! LOL
Yes true but each year is a different animal...in 03 Roy was hurt alot, Wade had a 4+ era and did you really trust Redding after two 5+ era season to be an ace??? Big Rig solid 4...please!!! Robertson was a 5 with a 5+era thats not good for a number 5 starter but the dude had great run support that year! You keep bringing up Boston/NY but I am not saying that I am saying bring in one more arm to help down the stretch...and since you've been in the clubhouse with the players you are telling me Bags/Biggio/Roy where ok with not improving the team a little bit??? Plus sorry but that Spoiled Brat was best closer we've had and one of the best of all time so please again tell me we couldn't get more for him???
Selective memory, at its finest. You have this "pitching is everything" mentality installed in your brain, and you selectively retain all examples that support it and ignore everything else. The Phillies scored five runs or more in eight of their 11 postseason wins. The Rockies September the year before? Here's their run totals in their wins: 4, 7, 6, 10, 4, 8, 12, 13, 3, 9, 6, 9, 2, 6, 7, 9, 2, 10, 11, 4, 9. Yeah, that's a team carried by the pitching. The Cardinals? Yeah, they did get good pitching in the '06 playoffs -- from mediocre arms like Anthony Reyes, Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver! You sure as heck can't make the argument that the Cards "invested in pitching" any more than the Astros. They simply got in the playoffs, and got hot at the right time -- which is the only real strategy there is. And the Astros analogy is so flawed it's not even funny. First of all, the fact that they were one game out in '06 is irrelevant, because all that reflects is how bad the division was that year. The 2008 team was better, as proven by record. As for 2004-2005, you had Pettitte, Clemens and Lidge, all in their primes. If the Astros added that kind of talent to their offense, you better believe they'd be in contention again. But Carlos Lee is only one player. It's not a matter of the 2004-06 Astros showing that pitching can win, and the 2007-09 Astros showing that hitting can't -- because honestly, the offense is still a bigger problem. The Astros pitching in those years was historically great. When the Astros have a historically great offense and don't win, get back to me.
Dude, I don't have a pitching is everything mindset its a pitching wins titles mindset!!! Yes the Phillies and Rockies scored runs come on they had good to great offenses but if you can't stop the other team from scoring what does it matter look at the Phillies, Rockies and Cards ERA's during the postseason and get back to me....You bash the Cards for having great stretchs by so so pitchers but darn isn't that what the Stros tried to do this year??? Yea the Cards got hot because OF THERE PITCHING!!! Yes the division was flawed big time in 06 right but who won the title in 06??? Like you said its all about getting Hot and the Cards and Stros both did but the Cards just snuck in and got second life while there Pitching both starting and relieving carried them. By the way check out 1998's offense and what happened?? Kevin Brown happened!!!
Do you not consider Oswalt an ace? Oswalt, for the last 2-3 years, has consistently had an ERA above 4 in July. Miller was a blue chip prospect, coming off two great years, including one where he went 15-4 with a 3.28 ERA. Let's say we get incredibly lucky and Bud Norris does that the next two years, and then in the third year, July comes and he has an ERA right around 4. Are you seriously not going to consider him an ace because of one half-season where his ERA was still better than average? Also, Redding was a prospect -- of course his first year or two would have ups and downs. And you're using hindsight to evaluate the Wagner trade. The Phillies had a good farm system, and the Astros got multiple top-10 prospects, including two promising young starters. Unfortunately, it didn't work out -- but most people around here had a positive opinion of it at the time, which is all you can judge by. Hunsicker got good value. And yes, I'm bringing up Boston/NY because other than those teams, what other organizations make moves every year for "one more arm"? It takes a lot, both in terms of financial flexibility as well as system flexibility, to make it happen. It'd be one thing if it were a one-time thing, but with you, it's not. You say they should've made a move in 2003. You were critical last week of Purpura for not making a move in 2005 for offense. You wanted a move at the deadline this year. It's taken the Astros forever to even get a few prospects that could be serviceable at the ML level, and you'd have to give up multiple of those guys just to maybe get a Jarrod Washburn type -- much less a Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. When I make the NY/Boston analogy, it's not just strictly in the sense of going out and signing big money guys. What makes those situations unique is that those teams can be much more open to trading prospects for "one extra arm", because they always have the option of going out in free agency and signing mediocre players at positions where their farm might be barren. The Astros have to be very careful with how they deal prospects, or else they'll stay in this mediocre range they've been at from 2006-09.
The Giants have had incredibly great pitching in recent years, but if you can't score, what does that matter? THEIR PITCHING WAS MEDIOCRE AS HELL! That's exactly my point. The Cards effectively had guys like Mike Hampton catch lightning in a bottle for a couple weeks, and it carried them. You're using this "pitching wins titles" argument in the context of the Astros not trading or investing enough in pitching. The 2006 Cardinals work entirely the opposite of your point. They didn't invest in pitching. They had a very mediocre staff. But in the end, their Hampton and Moehler-types caught fire, and it helped them. Selective memory at its finest, again. If great pitching always beats great hitting, why does Johan Santana, arguably the best starter of the past five years, have a 3.97 postseason ERA? Great hitting beats great pitching sometimes, too.
Of course Oswalt is an ace no doubt but he was hurt that year alot only made 21 starts and Wade was not having the year he had the prior two and like I said you have to look at each year as a seprate animal how are you going to judge 03 by 02 or 01 numbers... The Wagner trade was bad in my opinion because, and yes ill use the dreaded word, pitching...yes two top ten prospects came are way but Duckworth was the problem with it, we could not have gotten a proven starter from the Phillies instead of a guy who had a mid 4 era in 03??? Porspects fail and succed not blaming Gerry on that aspect or even Duckworth but I believe Billy's comments rushed the process through and limited our options thats all! Bos/NY are not the only teams who make deadline pitching deal come on...Medium to Large market teams make them all the time must I remind you Randy Wolf come over for who??? Timmy P. had pitching in 05 so offense whould have made a difference but my argument last week was his aggresiveness or lack there of, the team busted there butt just to make the playoffs another bat would not have hurt and considering how the Series went it may have made a difference yet it was the pitching who carried them to within a few clutch hits of a title. Astros this year could have made a move just like last year with Wolf so your telling me the Stros farm system would have been depleted because we trade a mid-level minor leaguer??? No, I didn't expect any big names but its fun to speculate and throw around ideas that could work but thats for another dicussion.
Dude, the Giants are right there for the wild card this year and it was only last year there pitching improved to the level its at. Cards have Dave Duncan enough said...huge fan and wish we had him! For every Johan Santana I id give you Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Josh Beckett, Andy P., Cole Hamels, Curt Schilling....pointing out one guy doesn't make your argument.
In a sport where players routinely have fluke seasons, if you're going to evaluate a player going forward by half a season or less, you're going to end up doing some very stupid things, and I'll leave it at that. You have to consider the context. Why didn't the Astros trade/demote Berkman this year when he was hitting below .200 for a very significant length of time? You still don't get it. The reason the Astros didn't deal Wagner for a proven starter is that proven starters cost money. The Astros dealt Wagner for the best package of prospects they could find, because they're cheap, and gave them the financial flexibility to go after Pettitte and Clemens. The only thing that rushed the process was that they needed to get the deal done early so they could go out and sign Andy and Roger, and they did. Yes, you're exactly right -- the Astros certainly could've traded Wagner for a proven starter. And then Pettitte/Clemens wouldn't have come. You have to make the best deal you can within financial realities -- which I don't think you fully appreciate. At the time of the deal, Wolf was 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA, pitching in the most pitcher-friendly park in the bigs. The Astros got lucky that he ended up with a better stretch here, but you don't want to make a habit of throwing prospects at mediocrity and hoping you catch lightning in a bottle. That's how you end up with mediocre Aubrey Huff and signing mediocre Kaz Matsui for $5-6m a year, instead of having Ben Zobrist and his .960 OPS manning second base for virtually nothing. And since medium/large market teams make these deals all the time, can you show me what medium/large market teams, outside of NY/Boston, have traded for deadline starters on a regular basis?
OK, I'll give you Pedro Martinez (2.90 career ERA, 3.40 playoff ERA), Roger Clemens (3.12 career ERA, 3.75 playoff ERA), Roy Oswalt (3.17 career ERA, 3.66 playoff ERA), Carlos Zambrano (3.47 ERA, 4.34 playoff ERA), CC Sabathia (3.68 career ERA, 7.92 playoff ERA)... I could go on and on. There are plenty of postseason examples of great pitching beating great hitting, and there are plenty of examples of great hitting beating great pitching. It's just a matter of luck and which gets hot at the right time. By the way, any team's postseason ERA is going to artifically be higher than its regular season -- that's a poor argument. Because of additional off days, you don't have to use a No. 5 starter (sometimes, not even a No. 4) and your best relievers are more rested and, thus, can be used more frequently.
The problem with the trade wasn't what we gave up or what we got in terms of talent. There was no reason to suspect that Jennings would implode. The problem was that we traded 3 assets that we controlled for 4-6 years for 1 asset we controlled for 1 yr, and we did so on a team that was mediocre. Again, this is a good trade if you're near the cusp - but this team wasn't. It had already struggled the year before, and it had lost key pieces from that team as it was. Jennings wasn't going to make the team good. That was the core issue with the trade - as has been the pattern for many years now, we traded away long term pieces for short term pieces that left you with nothing. Those assets were good enough to get us 1 yr of what was thought to be a #2 pitcher. We would have been much better served trading them for 3-4 years of maybe a #3 pitcher, or a left fielder (which would have saved $17MM for a #1 pitcher, for example) - though I can't remember if the Lee signing was before or after the trade. Regardless, it was the trading of assets from an already mediocre team that was the big mistake there.
The Lee signing was before. (I remember because it flashed during the ridiculous 12-7 game that UT lost to A&M the day after Thanksgiving - Jennings was in December.) For the record, I very much agreed with your premise. Where we differed was that I had already shifted my expectations, acknowledging the fact that Drayton would always trade assets in an effort to keep his head above water, contend, potentially catch lightning in a bottle and avoid rebuilding. So I analyzed it from that standpoint. Fortunately, Drayton seems to have modified on this a bit in the Wade era -- I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
Never said trade Oswaly or Miller I said give them help and don't expect them to carry the load by themselves when they are having injury issues or having a bad year and in Miller's case it was the beginning of a steady decline. So one moment you defend Drayton because he isn't cheap and now you're saying the Wagner trade was made because it brought cheap assets...??? Once again saying Wagner couldn't have gotten you an Arm because of the financial aspect of it tells me Drayton was to cheap to spend 3 or 4 mill more in a trade and still gotten Andy P. by cutting corners somewhere else! Ok il give not an Arm but Brandon Duckworth??? We gave up nothing for Wolf it was a gamble and it worked why not try it again that why my argument last week if you wanted to contend now bringing up Norris is turning out to be that move and that was fine because I was begging for that to happen and now Bazardo if prefect so I can honestly say I am glad they didn't make a move but at the time I would have prefered one. I didn't say one team or two middle market teams make moves all the time but alot of teams outside of NY/Bos make deadline moves that help there teams. Look at Minnesota yesterday picking up Pavano, Cubs picked up Grabow, we did with Wolf last year, Sox picked up Peavy on the DL, Brewers picked up Sabathia last year, Rockies got middle relief this deadline and thats just pitching not to meantion hitters...
First of all Pedro, Roger and Roy have had great post season success so putting them into that group is not right and il give you Z and CC but then come back with a dozen other great pitchers who dominated the playoffs...if you're premise is 50/50 pitching offense wins titles that is incorrect...I much rather have great pitching then great offense in the playoffs now regular season is a different animal but once you get into the dance you need horses...name me the last team to win a title with avg to below avg pitching?
Wait, what? You're not even making sense now. Putting them in that group is not right? All I'm doing is showing you their postseason numbers!!! I'm not saying Pedro, Roger and Roy are postseason failures. All I'm saying is that they were better regular season than postseason pitchers (as is to be expected, given the quality of offenses on most playoff teams). The 2007 Rockies had a staff ERA of 4.32, eighth in the NL. The 2006 Cardinals had a staff ERA of 4.54, ninth in the league. Now, let's look at offense. The 2008 Phillies were third in OPS. The 2007 Rockies were second. The 2006 Cardinals were sixth. The 2004 Cardinals were first.
You grouped them with Santana, Z and CC who have struggled in the post season to prove your point that offense sometimes wins over pitching right??? You can't group them in the sentence because they have normally dominated in the post-season and are proven post seaosn pitchers... Yea but when those teams got hot it was because of there PITCHING not offense...in 07 the Padres had the division wrapped up but the Rockies began to pitch with Jimenez and Francis which capped off there run, Phillies took control of the division when there pitching began to perform and remember they knew it because they had to make a trade for Blanton in there eyes to finish off the Mets and in 06 we almost caught the Cards because there pitching was struggling but when they got second life there pitching was awesome journey men or no journey men...Offense was there but pitching made the difference.
Please, for the sake of all of us, go follow the Yankees. Drayton has already gone far beyond the call. The Astros spend a far larger proportion of revenues on payroll than most teams. The Astros simply could not afford to have Wagner's salary, or a replacement pitcher, as well as sign Pettitte and Clemens. You seem to have this mentality that unless an owner is willing to spend like George Steinbrenner, he's cheap, and it's ridiculous. Everyone said we gave up nothing for Aubrey Huff, and now the guy we gave up is an All-Star with a .960 OPS at one of the league's most rare positions for offense. Even assuming Chad Reineke doesn't blow up like Ben Zobrist, trading average prospects does have a cost. When your farm is too thin to even provide you mediocre production, you end up paying $6m a year for Kaz Matsui for three years. Those are the killers, and the Astros would have to continually make those signings if they adopted your mindset. You're still NOT GETTING IT. Yes, these teams made moves. Guess what? The Astros have been fairly active midseason traders in recent years as well -- Wolf, Wigginton, Huff, Hawkins, etc. As a result, the Astros didn't have the financial flexibility -- or spare assets in the system -- to make a trade in 2009! That's why I keep asking you to identify me middle market teams who make moves every year -- because that's essentially what you're whining at the Astros for not doing. Unless you're NY/Boston, you can't go out and make a deadline deal of any significance year after year -- it's just not financially feasible.
