As for timetable, you and I disagree. I have no doubt the retail market will hurt over the course of the next year...no doubt of it. But I think things will be pointing up by then for the economy, overall. Home sales went up last month...despite what you're seeing on TV from analysts, banks are still writing mortgages...and there will be many that will feel they can cash in on the glut of real property on the market. They stopped loaning to fund the purchase of businesses months ago....or at least diminished it significantly. We've been working through that. As for health care...nothing will get done until we're past this mess. There is no way Congress will pass some sweeping changes in that regard in the midst of all this. That's political suicide. The housing bubble has nothing to do with Iraq. Iraq is a nightmare for a lot of reasons...but banks haven't stopped lending because the feds are spending money on troops in Iraq. I'm not suggesting we're gonna be all basking in prosperity in a year...I think a year from now though, things will be improving, and people will be scrambling to find ways to capitalize on getting in on growth.
totally agree, this engine has been driven by consumer spending for seven years since 9-11. It can't hold, and the aftermath of debt is massive. we haven't even seen the effects on mainstreet yet, not major, sure unemployment has been slowly sinking but you haven't seen a mass amount of layoffs yet. you really don't have alot of mortgage failures yet, just the expectation. the stock market is an indicator to the future as well as present. wait till the really bad news starts to hit.
the stock market is living in the past...it's just now correcting for a problem we've seen. that's the way the market reacts...it reacts off of news of earnings that HAPPENED...not what will happen. like any other market, it sensationalizes good news and bad news....but if something is news it means it already happened. where is this notion that main street isn't feeling this coming from? maybe because we're a bit insulated here in houston? i'd say that's it, but i keep hearing politicians say it and it's just wrong. foreclosures are up 80-something% this year from last year. this isn't a new problem...there has been a foreclosure crisis in this country for the past 12 months or so, and it hit main street right away. what we're fighting now is fear. the market is crashing because people aren't buying...so it's basically unmitigated losses. i understand the fear...they're waiting to see how long it takes for the credit market to open up again. but that will pass, too. americans' feelings change with the wind...with the way the next news report reads. things move much quicker now...including perceptions.
so obama gets elected...and you now have a timetable when you know you won't be spending that money anymore on a monthly basis. iraq concerns me for lots of reasons...but i don't think it's hampering our abilities at this point with regard to this crisis.
you don't buy stocks on what happened, just like what you saw with IBM, you buy them on growth potential. there is no growth potential, because there is no lending because companies are already heavily in debt and banks will not lend to them. banks will not lend, that is a reality of today and going forward. I may have understated the foreclosure problem. foreclosure data
people buy stocks based on what HAPPENED all the time....that's why everyone freaks out at earnings reports...about what they did last quarter. i'm not saying that's rational...but we're talking markets, here. you've been around in the oil thread long enough to know it ain't rational...and that markets react wildly to the news of what already happened that day. banks ARE lending. they tightened lending....and they did that months ago, even on the consumer side. but the media has us all believing they've stopped it all. if you need a home loan, i can point you to places to get one. email me if you need that. you might pay a bit of a higher rate than you did in 2004, but you'll get what you need. i know lending has slowed down on the financing of new businesses and on credit lines...at least i know that's been reported...but i also know groups that are making loans in those areas, too.
max, I don't want to go back and forth, my only point is that I believe there are fundamentals problems with our economy. it has been based on consumer spending the last seven years and that can't last
When my wife pays attention to whats going on in the market and asks questions about cashing out - That’s when we have bottomed out. It hasn't happened yet, but is close
It has tested that low twice today now and bounced back. The hour of death approaches ... if the last few days are anything to go by. Maybe this is where the bear finally decides that it is full and ends its rampage.
yeah yesterday it dipped hard last few minutes... though you wonder if it actually hits below 8k before the weekend...there have to be some folks that start buying.
Awesome. The world bank is admitting that, on top of everything else, it's security network has been compromised for over a year.
Nothing much ... it just defied gravity for a little while there and then corrected itself. Still trending up. Here's to a huge positive gap come Tuesday (markets closed Monday, right?).
