if you'll remember correctly, i was cynical about economic growth for the past year or so...i'm sure i pointed it out time and again in the oil threads...that demand would be weakened by a slowdown. honestly, we've known about the bubble burst for a while...it didn't just happen. when they were telling you oil wouldn't come down, you knew better. when they said tech stocks were unstoppable, you knew better. when you get those sorts of extremes, bet the other way. that's what i'm seeing now...it's just reversed.
I already voted for him in 2000.....not this time though, the guy has lost the plot and my respect. He is no Maverick, he is a spoiled brat, whose Daddy kept him out of trouble his whole life, he has consistently made piss poor judgements from helping out friends named Keating to stupidly continuing a bombing run when protocals called for him to take evasive action saving his aircraft. McCain is just all wrong, he is no Maverick he is simply a hot head.....and with him playing the race card now to try to get elected? Dispicable. We need someone that will unite this country, not drive a wedge further to divide it. McCain can go back and be a grumpy old senator....that is where he belongs. DD
That's true to a certain extend. However, what the politicians do definately can alter market behavior. For example, if nothing is done and we just ride out this thing it will turn into a major depression where thousands of banks around the world will close, hundreds of millions of people will lose their jobs and homes around the world.
i'm not going to speculate on the further direction of equities from here.....but as far as historical values go....imho, when you see a price to earnings ratio of around 7 on the S&P500......that will be 'value'...
posted this also in the hangout thread: http://www.cnbc.com/id/25848427 Jefferies' Hogan: Market Will Bottom Today Topics:Earnings | Nasdaq | NYSE | Stock Picks | Stock Market Companies:General Electric | IBMBy CNBC.com | 10 Oct 2008 | 10:48 AM ET Text Size Attention bottom fishers. Pay attention today because the market will finally hit bottom. That's the bold prediction of Jefferies managing director Art Hogan, who told CNBC, "Enough is going to be enough. If you look at all the carnage we've done to major market indices the bottom gets put in today." Hogan says, explaining that investors have been ignoring such good news items as earnings from IBM and General Electric (parent of CNBC and CNBC.com), interest rate cuts and other government intervention measures into the market and engaging in "indiscriminate selling" stocks. Hogan says this weekend's meeting of the Group of Seven nations will help boost confidence. Stocks will go up, he says, and that "will cause the same kind of self-fulfilling prophecy" as it was on the way down. "People will say 'I don't want to miss the bottom' and get back in." As you can see from the accompanying video, Hogan made those statements several minutes before the stock markets opened Friday. At around 10.03 a.m. ET, the market turned higher -- if ever so briefly.
If there's any consolation for an American nationalist, the rest of the world can't decouple from our mess. There might be hell to pay in terms of financial credibility, but we still hold the cards...
It might be true this could be beginning of the end of US world dominance. George Bush will certain be remembered as a great president for generations to come.
right?? totally agreed. while we're hearing this is the end of US economic dominance, this is evidence of it. i'm not saying that's a good or bad thing one way or the other. but the idea i heard over and over again that europe was decoupled from our mess is an absolute joke.
they're not decoupled from our mess because we're a nation of consumers. and that's a problem that's why I'm saying this is mess a long time in the making and a long time in fixing
We've been holding Asian banks hostage since the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. If we go down, they'll get hit just as hard.
Except for China, it seems. From what I understand, their conservative capital requirements and the like has pretty much insulated their banks . Their growth forecast is still 9%, and their economy has transitioned over the last few years to being primarily domestically driven instead of export-driven.
China have bought over 100 billion dollars of subprime because the US government officials assured China they are safe last year.
No way. Nationally, the housing bubble has only half-way subsided. The amount of equity being taken out of homes has plummeted to near zero. The whole consumer engine is in shambles. It will be a sucky holiday season that will drive a bunch of businesses under. Everything we're doing to try and restart things is driving us deeper and deeper into debt and more is on the table. China and other countries look like they're ready to pull the plug on funding our excesses. We're still spending huge amounts in Iraq. The rest of the world is following our lead. Something has to be done about health care, and any decent solution will reduce the number of jobs and significantly slow down the rising costs, thus affecting a large chunk of the current economy. One quarter of your time frame is still occupied by the Bush administration. My prediction is that we'll stay near the bottom for awhile.
After 3,489 consecutive posts, you actually said something that is coherent, accurate and makes sense.......... Now I am convinced things may get better...........if 1 miracle could happen so could others.............. RB
Foas, my friend, watch the markets the day after the election, if Obama wins. Then let's talk about what is causing this panic. TIA.
