I assumed Jeffries would be here b/c he's under contract. But if Morey can package him with a draft pick for a quality big ... watch out LA.
If yao is limited to 20+ mpg next year, we cannot contend. Iwould hope that advances in modern medicine since Z's surgery would allow for better recovery by Yao.
Give Adelman a pass this year. He has one offensive player and a bunch of crapola. He even had this squad playing at a high level to start the year when we had Brooks, Lowry and Landry. Consider what he did last year with and without Yao. it all made sense and he got more out of this team that we thought possible w/o yao.
I like most of the original posters ideas. The only change I might make would be to have Lowry start over brooks. Although I love the 3 point shooting ability of AB, I think his offensive mindset is more suited to bench play a la jason terry. Lowry is more of a facilitator so he fits more with yao and martin while letting brooks lead the bench brigade allows him to play to his natural strengths as a scorer. He would be asked to look to score first and then set up others second. I think its an unlikely outcome, but if Daryl Morey somehow pulls a miracle and brings Chris Bosh here I think that has to make Houston a title favorite. With Yao and Bosh together, the lakers would be the only starting frontcourt even close to our talent level. Add in a hopefully healthy and productive martin on the wing paired with a slashing ariza, and we have a deep team that can either grind in the half court or run teams out of the gym. If that scenario comes true, Daryl Morey should be elected as mayor.
I thought i'd write up something on how our lineup and rotation, as projected by me, would match up with the other top WC teams. First up, the Denver Nuggets. They are widely regarded as the 2nd best team in the league (I disagree). Starters: Billups, Afflalo, Melo, KMart, Nene Bench: Ty Lawson, JR Smith, Balkman, Andersen Prediction: Toss up series. Key Matchups: Billups/Lawson v. Brooks/Lowry: In this series, I would think Lowry is our closer because he defends Mr. Big Shot as well as anyone. Lawson and Lowry both accelerate temp on the court and probably cancel each other out. Brooks has to be a factor from distance. Melo v. Battier/Ariza: I think Battier plays 25mpg and could close because of his ability to frustrate Melo into difficult shots. Melo has improved since those days and Battier has slowed down. However, I think Battier is Melo's least favorite defender. Our ability to take away/slow down Melo should force Denver's role players into doing more than they would like. Martin v. Afflalo/Smith: Afflalo is a quality defender but Martin should get his. Denver regularly has mental lapses and team defense suffers. Yao v. Nene: if healthy, (big) advantage Yao in the low post. Andersen v. ______: Birdman is a qualty big off the bench. Advantage Denver over Jeffries/Hayes/DA/Hill or whoever.
Scola, Matin, AB are bad defenders. Starting Lowry would make the starting lineup more balanced, can handle other teams different style. In 4th quarter, it depends on the match up or who is hot for that particular night. It could be Lowry, AB or Martin.
Next up, the hated Dallas Mavericks Starters: Kidd, Butler, Marion, Dirk, Haywood Bench: Barrea/Beaubois, Terry, Stevenson, Dampier (other big) Prediction: Dallas in 7. Too much diverse offensive firepower. Matchup of Starting Units: Kidd/Butler/Marion/Dirk/Haywood vs Brooks/Martin/Ariza/Scola/Yao If Yao can effectively post haywood, these starting lineups are very closely matched. Both teams can "go small" very effectively: Barrea/Terry/Butler/Marion/Dirk vs. Brooks/Lowry/Buddinger/Battier/Scola This would be awesome to watch. Dallas has the advantage with Yao out because Terry and Dirk are superior scorers.
I think Scola is ok, strictly average. I tend to think that teams are less defense focused to start the game. In the first quarter, there's not the late game intensity. Accordingly, I'd lean toward starting AB b/c you can get away with it. Do you think AB would be as good as Lowry off the bench? I tend to think that AB lacks that insane "energy" that Lowry has to supercharge the bench.
Next up, the Portland Trailblazers, if healthy. I have to admit it's kind of fun to type "if healthy" to describe a team other than ours. Starters: Miller/Roy/Webster/Aldridge/Oden Bench: Bayless/Fernandez/Batum/Pryzbilla Prediction: Rockets in 6 or 7 Key Matchups: Yao v. Oden/Pryzbilla: They'll have to front Yao. Otherwise, he will kill them. Remember game 1 two years ago? Ariza/Battier v. Roy: Roy is a star, but Ariza and Battier should be able to make him work for his points. Still, advantage Roy. Martin v. Webster: Portland is a dream matchup for us because we can hide Martin on defense by letting him guard someone other than Roy. Portland lacks a defender to slow Martin, so big advantage Martin. Aldridge v. Scola/Jeffries/Hayes: Big advantage Aldridge. However, Jeffries length might be able to bother Aldridge. In the alternative, Hayes does as good a job pushing Aldridge out as anyone. But damn DA has a beautiful J from 18 feet. Brooks/Lowry v. Miller/Bayless: Push because Bayless is improving. Miller posting Brooks is less a problem b/c it keeps the ball out of Roy's and Aldridge's hands. Brooks should be able to undress Miller routinely. Budinger/Battier v. Fernandez/Batum: edge Rockets. Budinger is becoming a better player than Fernandez, and Battier provides high quality depth on the bench. Bottom line, we remain the most difficult team for Portland to match up with.
