I agree with what you're saying in general, but would make a few comments. First, everybody knows PER underrates defense. PER also overrates scoring, imo. If you look at the stats actually, you'll see PER really overrates scoring to the extent even extra inefficient scoring will increase PER. Point here is principally in regards to Rondo. I'd note that while not statistically proven, I'd argue that PER also underrates intangibles. The type of intangibles someone like Rondo is likely to bring - granted he may bring some other not so good intangibles. In any case, I think your simple PER analysis - Rondo's PER vs. his opponents - underrates Rondo, perhaps meaningfully. Second, to your comment, team defense is definitely at play. Yes, sure, it does speak a bit to the fact that Harden isn't "as bad" as advertised... on a net basis. But the idea that Harden is holding anyone down isn't accurate. His net rating is high, because he's great offensively, and others aren't. That's just the NBA. There aren't a ton of great SGs. But defense is such a "team" game. Doesn't it make more sense to look at unit PER, not individual PER? Third, playoffs playoffs playoffs. Harden still had a great net PER. Cause Wes Matthews isn't all that either. But his own PER dropped 21%. And last year it dropped 10% in the playoffs. . . . All that said, I think your post was wrt Melo, and maybe Melo's impact versus a more defensive minded player like a Rondo. When it's all said and done, I probably prefer Melo. Dude is amazing. He gets a TON of heat. But his production is undeniable. It's at an INCREDIBLY high usage rate, but a VERY effective usage. If you get a Melo without "losing" much in return (for making cap space, whatever), it really really does create some interesting dynamics. If you can keep a Parsons, then this lineup is a matchup nightmare for most teams: PBev, Harden, Parsons, Melo, Dwight Or go the "bigger" lineup of: Harden, Melo, Parsons, Jones, Dwight Lots of matchup options. The hesitation is that: (1) You still have a potential PG problem. You have this if you get Love, too, though. A great defensive opponent in the playoffs will pick on your weaknesses. Can PBev consistently hit 35%+ from the corner three, in a playoff series? I'm not sure. He's not Derek Fisher out there. (2) You still have defensive problems and potential rebounding problems. Yes, offensively they'd be amazing. But you run into Portland again, and you will still have problems stopping the other team from scoring. Cause the Lillard/LMA combo hits you where it hurts. Nobody to guard Aldridge, Lillard can blow by anyone and it's not like you have a defensive wall back there besides Howard. And REBOUNDING... Melo and Parsons are both solid rebounders.. as small forwards. But Love averages 5 more boards per 36 minutes. Rondo averages 3-4 more boards per 36 minutes than Melo. It's a little thing, sure. But after watching the Rockets give up timely offensive rebounds over and over in crunch time, a Rondo in there even fighting off a guard or two to keep them out of the paint definitely helps. Dwight isn't now trying to outrebound the entire other team. (3) You still have potential problems in the last 5 minutes. Yes, you clearly have potential greatness, too. The ability to come back when down. The ability to just out-offense the other team. But all the last 5 minute things we saw against Portland are still there. Offense becomes stagnant. Defensive miscues and rebounds given up, etc. No on the floor "leader". GRANTED, this is 40% or more coaching. Guess it comes down to those things that PER doesn't do as good a job of picking up.. and what the team needs. A Tony Allen type player over a Melo is ridiculous. A Rondo over a Melo, for this team, is a valid question. KLove over all of them seems obvious, to me at least.
Go to lottery, have huge expiring contracts to make trades with at the deadline. Gobs of cap space in 2015/
O I hear you (I'm team harden). And it's not so much, harden you suck. It's more of, harden are you trying right now? When harden wants to play hard on defense you can really tell (because he didn't do it all the time). And I hear you about the stats(harden being over). But really harden Should be way over. He plays a position that there aren't many stars at anymore. He should have stats equivalent to LeBron and Durant when it comes to that. So where you for melo? Because offensively we were already pretty good this year. I think melo and harden are too similar. We need pieces to combine for more than scoring. We need balance and melo wouldn't give us that ( imo). we need a good play maker to utilize our players that we have and what they are good at. And to tell you the truth, the more I talk here, the more I kinda want rondo. I know he isn't an amazing superstar "name" but he could really max our stars and whole team capabilities. But if we got love (cuz this is a love forum) I wouldn't be mad I'm sure.
They can find this with other deals with much better return. Like the Lakers. Draft picks plus salary filler effectively. The Knicks offer proposed is dumb. Wolves would never take it.
Lakers aren't going to give up #7 and be locked in with no way to get another guy. There's probably very few teams willing to take a salary dump from Minny and I'm not so sure how much salary Morey is willing to take.
The moment the Rockets acquire their 3rd max guy is the moment that we stop worrying about cap space. Morey inherited a capped out team in T-Mac/Yao/Battier + crap, and did a wonderful job of filling out the rest of the roster without ever worrying about cap space. I don't think Morey will have an issue with taking on a bad contract with Love.
He may if he fears Love running off to LAL in 2015. Love's gotta commit for Morey to lock down his cap flexibility.
I could see the Rockets take back a salary that the Wolves want to jettison if necessary and the Rockets can keep an asset.... for example the Rockets take Chase B or Kevin Martin or Corey Brewer (if even possible under the cap, haven't been able to look at the numbers closely).
I'm using common sense. But if you believe what I believe to be common sense to be false, then feel free to correct me. Here are my assertions. 1. There is no advantage to Kevin Love to either (a) sign an extension with any team he's traded to or (b) verbally commits to any team he's traded to. For example, if he's traded to Chicago and Derrick Rose has career ending injury, you think Love would stay there beyond next year? I don't believe he'll give such a commitment, except maybe the Lakers if he's bent on becoming the next big Lakers star. But if he's traded to the Rockets, Warriors, Celtics, etc., there is absolutely zero incentive for Love to prematurely agree to a new contract with the team he's traded to. 2. Due to the above, any team that trades for him, with perhaps the exception of the Lakers, is therefore operating with the risk that Love may leave after next year. Again, if anything I said is false or make no sense, feel free to correct me.
The assets we are going to put on the table are basically everybody outside of Harden/Howard/Parsons and possibly Beverley. But we may just decide to throw Beverley in there too. I don't know. We have the ability to take back Martin and also then sign Chase to the MLE, if they want rid of him by buying him out for his 2014-15 salary. But Corey Brewer is somewhat of an asset. Short term contract and he's valuable for the money he makes. So, I don't think they'd trade Brewer. KMart is the contract killer right there. Long term deal. Don't know who would want him. And if you've moved all your picks out for Love you're kinda stuck with Martin. He's another no-defense guy. Just a problem to have on the roster especially if you've got to use the MLE on Chase to make up for his buyout. And I don't see any team that would want Martin out there. I suppose possibly Miami may take him if they nailed down the big 3 again. Perhaps they'd find some junk to sign-and-trade for Martin. But outside of that I just don't see anybody that would be looking to pay Martin that money for that long of a term. Cap clogging killer contract. So if Minny wants to jettison Martin, and we have to take him.....that's a huge risk because if Love bolts to LA we're stuck with less than maximum cap space going into 2015 free agency.
I think folks are underrating the impact of being able to offer Love the extra guaranteed year and $ as the "home team," probably because Dwight left LA. The extra guaranteed money is still a lot of extra dough and there is always a chance that you are not a max guy, maybe not even healthy enough to play, 4 years from now. Dwight's circumstances were a particularly toxic brew: butting heads with Kobe, Kobe and Nash aging/injured and no roster help in sight if he stayed, Jim Buss taking over. If I were a team like Milwaukee, I may worry a good deal about Love departing in 2015 regardless of $. But if I were Houston, I don't worry too much. If you really think highly of Love and believe he is worth what you give up, you gotta think that the team will be better than the 54 win squad that it was without him. And how many landing spots in 2015 will be in that much better shape than Houston for him to make that move despite the money difference? Now if you do not think Love is that good, or do not think he fits with the rest of your core guys, then you don't pay for him for "basketball reasons" and not 2015 free agency reasons.
I don't think Morey makes a deal for Love unless he gives assurances he will resign for the max. Agree with you on Brewer.... know it isn't likely, he is a limited, but valuable asset at his contract. Yes, I think the Rockets would take Martin if they had to. In one sense he is attractive in that he adds depth to the Rockets. He can come off the bench and hit shots....... but if we get him, there is bad blood, he is a worse defender... my guess is the Rockets would move him for ANOTHER bad contract that fills our needs. I think the MLE would be used on a swing defender.. Thabo (if possible).
That sounds good and all but that only works for next season. If Love decides to bolt you're still stuck with that long term deal for whomever that player is and it kills your ability to have max cap space to sign a max guy in 2015 to replace Love.
If Love has a preference for a particular team then it is in his best interest to commit to an extension because without it then that team likely doesn't trade for him. Assume he wanted to go to GS and assume that Thompson, Barnes and Lee was an acceptable return for Minnesota. GS isn't going to offer those 3 guys for Love unless they get a guarentee that he's going to be more than a one year rental. Sure, GS might be willing to offer a lesser package for Lover without a guarentee but it's doubtful that the T-Wolves would take that deal. If it's not a great return then they're better off just keeping Love and trying to move him prior to the trade deadline. Wolves are in a bad spot because their not going to get good returns for Love unless a team knows that he'll resign with them. It's the same problem that Orlando had when they were trying to trade Howard. Most teams were eliminated because Howard wouldn't guarentee them that he'd resign and the team that was willing to take him without a guarentee (Houston) wasn't offering that much. They ended up having to take the best deal that they could get from one of the teams that thought that they could resign Dwight (LA). Ditto for the Rockets trade for Harden. There's no way the Rockets gave up what they did unless they knew Harden was going to resign. It came down to Harden' choice, if you want to go to Houston and get the 5yr $80M contact then you have to agree to resign. Landing with a team where he wants to play is a pretty big incentive to agree to resign.
I don't think that Morey does it without an agreement from Love. Morey would still trade for Love without assurances, but there is no way he offers as much...... You haven't weighed in on the subject BTW....... Love and losing more assets... or Anthony keeping more assets. Obviously the MLE is important in either case.
Why wouldn't the Lakers give up the #7 and salary dump (effectively) for Love? They'd give up Nash + filler. Nash would be a salary dump, since he has another year left. Would the Lakers be able to add another piece? Not sure. But that's a Kobe issue more than anything else. Cause he gets paid so damn much. Other wise, you're just making a comment that given what Kobe gets paid, the only way for the Lakers to become relevant again is to draft another superstar - who won't be paid like one until much later. I think the Lakers do it... but maybe you're right. But then there's also Boston of course. Net Result... sure, but Net Result certainly isn't as simple as player A PER vs. opponent at that position PER. With the intelligent posters, at least, I think when we/they are arguing for player A over player B as the better addition, the argument is as much about "production" as fit, chemistry, intangibles, team needs, positional needs, etc. If I look at the Heat or the Spurs, it's not just that they have players who are better than their opponents. It's that their stars fit and accept roles. Bosh accepting his role. Manu accepting his role for years off the bench.
Those are also great players accepting roles. Kendrick Perkins accepts his role as the starting C for the Thunder. And they play 4 on 5 on offense.
