(Woj) Harden turned down $50 million a year extension wants to be traded to Nets

We have to make another move

 

sauces

 

Well no ****.

Harden is a very loyal guy and is huge on relationships.

Harden has said Houston and LA are his two homes and that he considers Houston to be special because of his success here and he has built a lot of relationships here.

The problem is that he REALLY wants to win a title and the older he gets, the less likely he is to win one.

If Wall and Cousins and Harden gel and play like a real contender, then Harden likely stays.

The problem is that the Rockets have 60 million tied up in Wall and Gordon.

 

Still won’t surprise me if he’s traded, though unlikely AF!

 

...

The facts on the ground

The Rockets spent a good chunk of their offseason acquiring first round draft picks. From the Robert Covington trade to the John Wall trade, every transaction they made has involved them getting back a draft pick. This is atypical of a title contender and very typical of a team preparing to rebuild.

Houston also let a lot of their veteran talent go in favor of younger options. The Christian Wood deal is a prime example of this, but you could also point to them letting Austin Rivers walk and picking up Sterling Brown.

While it's true that the Rockets needed a fusion of youth on the roster anyways, title contenders are more likely to target proven veterans in free agency to fill out their roster, not players under 25-years-old.

Sure, Houston was limited to minimum deals because of the hard cap, but the trend was still overwhelming in one direction - youth.

The John Wall trade

You could've made a pretty decent case that the Rockets were trying to thread the needle of contention and rebuilding until Wednesday night. Wednesday night erased all doubts about the organization's direction. By swapping Russell Westbrook for John Wall, the Rockets downgraded significantly in talent and likely lost themselves wins in the process. However you feel about Westbrook, he will almost certainly have a better 2020-21 campaign than Wall.

Russell Westbrook was an All-NBA player last season and John Wall hasn't played basketball in two years. In addition, Wall is coming off an injury that was viewed as a career-ender just ten years ago. On average, players coming off an Achilles tear miss about 20% of the following season (per Kevin Pelton of ESPN). Wall may look good in workouts around the country, but coming back is historically very challenging.

The mistake people make in analyzing this trade from Houston's perspective is to believe it was about John Wall. The Rockets may be rolling the dice on Wall's talent, but this trade was about the protected first round pick they acquired. It may not be a great asset, but it's an asset. Previously, Houston was looking at giving up multiple first round picks up to dump Westbrook's contract. This gave them an avenue to add one.

If the goal was to create the best possible team for next season, Houston likely doesn't do this deal.

Stepping back

In total, the Rockets took bets on three guys who will likely all be rotation players: John Wall, Christian Wood, and DeMarcus Cousins. Two out of these three bets basically have to pay off for Houston to have a successful season. It's possible, but even if they do, they'd have to pay off enough to vault Houston into championship contention. Possible, but unlikely.

The counter argument to all of this is that Houston could flip these picks to upgrade the roster midseason. Again, it's possible, but it still doesn't explain why they made the Wall trade. Why make your roster worse now if you were going to make it better later? This is where these arguments hit a brick wall (excuse the pun).

It's hard to write this without making it feel like a lecture, so let's just call this an intervention. Think of Houston's offseason this way: If they had traded James Harden first instead of last, would people still view these transactions as win-now moves? Of course not.

And that's because they're patently not. Even Christian Wood - who may end up being a nice player for Houston next season - is a gamble that most title contenders wouldn’t be taking if they already had Robert Covington.

What the Rockets are saying publicly about trying to keep Harden is not unique to the kind of posturing you usually see in these kinds of situations. When a star player demands a trade, it's extremely difficult to put that genie back in the bottle. Only the Lakers (Kobe Bryant) have been able to successfully pull it off in modern NBA history.

Houston is leveraging Harden's remaining years under contract for the best possible offer and it could take months for this situation to get resolved. But make no mistake, unless we see Harden sign an extension or pick up his third-year player option, his days in Houston are numbered.

It's likely the Rockets understood that when he turned down the original extension

 

he’ll probably have to leave in order to win a title tho

 

Rebuilding or retooling? Why not both?

No one is denying that Wall and Cousins are big risks that may or may not pan out. If they do, the Rockets will be contenders and can use these picks to upgrade at the trade deadline. If not, then you can trade Harden and rebuild. Fans can be hopeful and realistic at the same time.

 

Why does every NBA columnist seem to assume we are trading Harden at the deadline this year? If we are getting a crap sandwich for Harden anyway, why not at least play the full season with him and see what happens in the playoffs? Maybe the team exceeds expectations this year and does something special? Everyone is acting like the Lakers winning again is a foregone conclusion, but things happen. LeBron is 58 years old and AD has a history of injuries. We are headed for a long winter once we trade Harden, so I'd like to see at least one more playoff run before it all goes to crap.

 

They REALLY want the Rockets to trade Harden to the Nets so that a NY franchise will be relevant again, they are trying to speak it into existence.