With the 10th pick in the NBA Draft the Houston Rockets Select...

every year there are diamonds in the rough who slip. we got one in alpi ourselves. i remember back when we couldn’t sniff a lottery pick for a decade so hopefully stone’s not taking our good fortune for granted and eli witus has been doing work

 

just feel like this is a weak draft. These last two. Sure there may be some diamonds in the rough after about #6 or 7, but it’s nothing like the 2021 draft. If there was ever a draft to trade out of, I think this is the one. We want to be in this next draft, 2026.

 

This draft is stronger than last year's. A number of good role players might be available in the 20's.

It will harder to acquire a 2026 lottery pick.

 

I disagree. Though next year is a strong draft, there are lots of strong options in the 10–20 range.

 

A few of points:

1) This just delays the draft pick. The chance of getting a diamond or a dud doesn't change much except for timing.
2) Adams and FVV are worth a little delayed gratification.
3) For every diamond, there are probably 5-10 duds.
4) There's a big chance with the Rockets' deep roster that even a diamond in the rough may not be found until the diamond is on his second team.

 

I think Rockets will be aiming for 2 picks 2027 or later such that the Rockets have 11 FRPs after next year's draft.

 

i can be convinced to consider all points except #2

fvv was trash all season and half the playoff series and at 31 will only regress further. for under $20M/yr i can stomach resigning him but anything over and it’s gonna be a long offseason for everyone here reading my stone decapitating posts… especially if he also dumps this lottery pick

 

you could be right, i live mostly in europe and haven’t seen any of these prospects in any game. but still we have the 10th pick. who knows where a future acquired pick could land. imo with a bird in hand we should run with it and uncover that diamond

 

Here's the exercise: Assume that you keep the core 7 + Brooks for 2025 - 2026; you then have around $48.7M under the luxury tax to sign whomever else you want. Subtract $1.2M from the final salary you give to each player to account for the rookie minimum that they are displacing.

So for example, the #10 pick's first year salary, assuming 120% of scale, is $6M. If you want to keep them, it will cost you $6M - $1.2M = $4.8M

If you want to sign a 2+ year vet like Uncle Jeff, Holiday, JaeSean Tate, or Nate Williams to a vet min, that costs $2.2M - $1.2M = $1M.

FVV = $28M
Adams = $15M
#10 = $6M
Uncle Jeff = $2.2M
Vet = $2.2M

Total: $53.4M - 5 * ($1.2) = $48.4M, approximately $300k below the luxury tax.

Depends heavily on what you think FVV and Adams are going to get in FA, but if the Rockets are actually needing to dump the salary of #10 to stay under the luxury tax, I think they've devoted far too much salary to retaining FVV and Adams.

 

how much does the NT-MLE add if we want to sign a free agent as well?

 

That looks like a tight fit this year. When I did my calcs a while back, ~$35M for FVV was the number that broke everything. I was thinking FVV would receive somewhere between $20M and $30M as a result (thought Rockets would try to avoid getting close to $35M, but well above MLE). The past week has made me think $25M to $34M is now the range. I'd prefer FVV at a lower number, but I think the Rockets care more about winning this year than they do about Tilman paying $6M more this year that doesn't affect anything other than pushing a pick back a couple of years (which they might do anyway based on a deep roster).

I don't think the No. 10 will play much this year so I don't expect it to be kept even if the Rockets have just enough room for it. The Rockets have to love the guy to keep him, as they will need players on rookie contracts after Amen's extension more than they do now.

 

$14.1. Rockets probably won't be able to use all of it if they keep Adams and FVV as that would hard cap them at the 1st apron.

 

Nobody really considered Hali or SGA mvp type players at 23 Hali got traded for Sabonis at 21 and was voted most overrated player this year. Amen being an all defense at 21 both SGa and Hali didnt have anything at that age.

So while I am not sure if Amen or Sengun reaches that level saying we dont have anybody is premature at this point. Unless someone is a generational talent like a Luka or a Lebron you generally wont be an mvp candidate at Sengun and Amen's age.

And to be honest who the hell thought Pacers would be 2-1 in the Finals? Nobody would say Hali was on the level of SGA or Jokic prior the playoffs but here they are about to win it. Last year neither Jaylen Brown nor Tatum were seen as MVP players but they won it right? So this narrative is just false IMO.

 

This is the difference between being a fan and operating a team. Say you are very bullish on Amen and thinks he will have a 50% chance to reach MVP candidate status. If you're a fan, you can just hope he becomes a superstar. If you're running a team, you need to account for the 50% chance that he fails to become that.