With Dwight Howard in hand, now what? (Espn insider article)

Espn insider article

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/peltond12-130705/dwight-howard-hand-now-what


What are Rockets' next moves?
Updated: July 5, 2013, 10:15 PM ET
By Kevin Pelton

So the Houston Rockets have apparently -- although nothing can be finalized until July 10 -- won the battle for Dwight Howard's services. Now what? While the Rockets may have presented Howard the roster most capable of contending for a championship right away, there's still work to be done to accommodate D12's presence.

Let's take a look at Houston's options:

Question 1: How will they clear more cap space?
While the Rockets have been described as capable of signing Howard outright, technically that's still not the case. The team is close, but to clear the full $20.5 million Howard can get from Houston under the cap, the Rockets would have to waive the nonguaranteed contracts of guard James Anderson and center Tim Ohlbrecht and trade one of their three second-year power forwards (Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas or Royce White).

Of course, Houston could hang on to those cheap players by facilitating a ...

Question 2: Howard sign-and-trade?
The first question that Rockets general manager Daryl Morey will ask his counterpart Mitch Kupchak is whether the Lakers have interest in a sign-and-trade involving Howard. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, Howard makes the same amount either way.

But if the Lakers are interested in Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin, the Rockets could send both players back in return. Alas, that seems unlikely, given the Lakers' goal of keeping their cap room clear for the summer of 2014. As a result, Houston will probably be looking elsewhere to ...

Question 3: Trade Lin and Asik?
Last summer, the Rockets made Asik and Lin their marquee additions in free agency. A year later, both players appear expendable. Lin's ability to create in the pick-and-roll was rendered less valuable by the addition of James Harden, while Howard's arrival might relegate Asik to a reserve role for which he's terribly overqualified.

With Patrick Beverley apparently capable of starting at point guard (he more than capably held down the position in the playoffs when Lin was sidelined by a chest injury) and Greg Smith as a cheap backup center, Houston could survive trading both Lin and Asik.

If the Rockets can convince teams to take on the extra salary owed both players because of their poison-pill deals, which will pay them $15 million in the 2014-15 season, it would help answer the question of ...

Question 4: Who plays next to Howard?

Power forward is the Rockets' most unsettled position. They traded starter Patrick Patterson and backup Marcus Morris in February and used a rotation of Smith, Jones and Motiejunas the rest of the season. The addition of Howard seems to make it clear that Houston should target a stretch 4. In Orlando, Howard was most effective playing next to Ryan Anderson and Rashard Lewis, dangerous 3-point shooters whose defensive limitations were mitigated by Howard's presence.

In time, Motiejunas and maybe even Jones could be that kind of player, but for now they're probably not starters on a team that aims to contend right away. If the Rockets can clear the $16.6 million Asik and Lin will count against the cap -- either in a sign-and-trade or deals with teams under the cap -- that would potentially give them enough space to make an offer to either Josh Smith or Paul Millsap, whom I ranked the top two free agents available at power forward.

Neither Smith nor Millsap is a stretch 4 in the strictest definition of the term, but both have the ability to play away from the basket. Millsap shot 42.4 percent from 16 to 23 feet last season, per Basketball-Reference.com. As maligned as Smith's penchant for long jumpers is, his effective field goal percentage on 3-pointers (45.5 percent last season) is actually better than that.

Pairing Asik and Howard would be an intriguing possibility, given the success the Rockets had late in the regular season with Asik playing next to another traditional big man in Smith. However, our Brian Windhorst reported that Asik does not want to play with Howard and would like to be traded.

After figuring out power forward, Houston will set about answering ...

Question 5: Who fills out the roster?
While the Rockets have a relatively complete roster, they did have to sacrifice wing depth for the Howard pursuit. They waived Carlos Delfino and turned down a team option on Francisco Garcia, both of whom played key roles in last season's playoffs. At the moment, Houston has only journeyman Anderson behind starters Harden and Chandler Parsons. So unless the Rockets decide to trade Asik for a wing, adding one will be their biggest need with the $2.7 million exception they'll have for free agency.

Houston will be looking at players like Dorell Wright, Corey Brewer, Wayne Ellington and Anthony Morrow, while Garcia could also return at a much smaller salary than the $6.4 million he was originally scheduled to make.

That leaves one last question:

Question 6: How good will the Rockets be?
ESPN Radio
ESPN's Brian Windhorst discusses the reports that Dwight Howard will join the Rockets and discusses the impact it will have around the NBA.

Obviously, that depends in part on how Houston answers the other questions. But early indications are that adding Howard to a rising core of young players should produce a serious contender in the Western Conference. As I wrote in today's comparison of the Howard contenders, the Rockets' existing roster was projected for 37 wins above replacement (WARP) in 2013-14.
Add in Howard's own projection (11.8 WARP) and the 10-win replacement-level baseline and Houston is looking at a projection in the neighborhood of 59 wins. That would have put the Rockets right in between the Oklahoma City Thunder (60 wins) and San Antonio Spurs (58) at the top of the West standings in 2012-13.

With the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors also loading up and the Memphis Grizzlies still in the picture, the West figures to be top-heavy next season. Now that Howard is in the fold, Houston will be right in the mix to return to the NBA Finals for the first time.

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