Bring back Morton- 3/42 Marwin- 3/25- anything higher I let him walk Maldonado- 3/15? I'd pay him $5 a year or let him walk Let Walk DK- offer QO- figure he will decline it- let him move on (I mean, unless his market sucks and he's willing to take something like 4/60 which I can't imagine happening Gattis Marwin (I have him under bring back but can't imagine he takes that deal- if he did- great- but he's going in this category I'm sure) McCann (I might offer him something like 1/5 but whatever I'd offer him I can't imagine him accepting) Harris- I'd not pick up his option Sipp Trade McHugh- For sure. Just not enough value in us paying him $6,000,000 for one year on arbitration LMJ- not saying I'd trade him- but I'd definitely gauge market interest if I could get a 3/42 type deal done with Morton Peacock- ditto McHugh- I'd want a little more for him as he's got more club control left- but I'd rather not pay him in arbitration to be a long man Reddick- if you can get out of his contract- I think you can- I'm not looking for any real value in the minors, I'm looking for someone that will send me a bag of balls and a fungo- so I can do the other stuff I talk about below. I'm not down on him. His 12 or 13 million doesn't offend me- I just think I can get better value elsewhere. Extensions I'd offer/ be willing to do from a years and dollars perspective (I realize these guys aren't up- I'm just saying I'd kick the tires) JV or Cole- JV 3/90, Cole 5/150 (not both- but one or the other) Pressley- 3/18 Springer- 3/75 (not ripping up his option next year- that's got to be played out- but I'd offer him that and if he says no I'd look to see what the interest was in him) Bregman 10/200 (ripping up last cheap year and 3 arbitration years- I'd make it a smooth 20 per year- if you figure his next 4 years he probably gets something like 40 million in final club control and 3 years arbitration that's equivalent to a 6 year 160 million dollar extension for him- make him say no to generational wealth at 24- he probably will but that'd be my offer) Roster then becomes (what the astros are paying for it anyway) JV- 20 million Cole- 20 million Morton- 14 million Whitley- 500k James/Framber- 500k $55,000,000 Starting rotation Bullpen Osuna Rondon Presley Smith Devo James/Framber Perez AAA guy tbnl $25 million maybe? Players Maldonado- 5 Stassi- 500 White- 500 Altuve- 30 million Correa- 6 million Bregman- 20 million Tucker- 500k Springer- 13 million (jumping to 25 million in 2020) Kemp- 500k Marisnick- 4 million (anything more and he's gone) Gurriel (utliity/DH) 9 million Davis or Reed (utility/DH) 500k Positional payroll $90,000,000.00 Total payroll if I could pull off everything like that: $170,000,000.00 In 2020 you'd be getting out from $20,000,000 in Cole or Verlander (whoever doesn't want to sign) while jumping Springer $12 million and giving substantial arbitration raises to Correa and maybe a bullpen guy or two. That's a 2019 roster that could win the world series on $170 million while also setting your competitive window into 2023, and making sure that Bregman, Springer and Altuve are all Astros for life (or at least all their productive baseball lives- if Bregman and Springer want to move on at 33 or 34 so be it, I'm not that sentimental) and paying market rate for only one ace. If they didn't offer any of the extensions that roster would cost them something like $135 or $140 million. If that's the route they go I sure hope that it means they are saving some money in their piggy bank for extensions that get done at a later date in time. Correa is thus the odd man out in this scenario. I've always figured it would go down that way as he always seemed (and I don't mean this negatively) as an AROD- money and market are big deal and most important to him beyond staying in 1 place and being a Bagwell Biggio, but the back injury makes me very leery of ever offering him an extension. Play it out in arbitration. So be it.
I wonder how much the Astros are making. Why can’t they have a $225 payroll for a few years? Keep everyone together. Keep Cole and Justin Verlander. Correa etc
Trade for Realmuto (guessing C Martin, Stassi, James, Fisher, and C Perez) Sign Maldonado to backup ($12M/2yr) Sign Nelson Cruz ($18M/2yr) Sign Charlie Morton ($28M/2yr) Trade Will Harris, Joe Smith, AJ Reed, Tony Kemp for high ceiling lower level prospects (eat money if needed) QO Keuchel Try to extend Bregman, Springer, and Correa Protect Armenteros, Thornton, Stubbs, Ferrell, Arauz, Ferguson, Dykxhoorn, Bostick, and Abreu from Rule 5. 2019 opening day lineup/40 man: CF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa DH Cruz C Realmuto LF Reddick 1B White RF Tucker* Bench: Gurriel, Maldonado, Marisnick Rotation: Verlander, Cole, Morton, McCullers, Whitley* Bullpen: Peacock, F Valdez, Deetz, Devenski, McHugh, Rondon, Pressly, Osuna Optioned to AAA: Stubbs, Arauz, Davis, Straw, Ferguson, Thornton, Armenteros, Martes, Rodgers, Dykxhoorn, Bostick, Guduan, Gustave, Ferrell, Abreu *Davis or whoever would begin the season as the LF until another year of control was secured for Tucker; Rodgers or whoever would begin the season as the 5th starter until another year of control was secured for Whitley.
A lot of incorrect information in here. Springer does not have an "option" year. He signed a 2 year deal for 12 million per season and then has an additional year of arbitration after that. The Astros control him for 2 more seasons. No reason to do anything with his contract now. Altuve is not making 30 million next year. He is getting 6.5 million plus a 10 million dollar bonus/advance from his extension. What the Astros do with Morton will depend on how his shoulder holds up the rest of this season. He has been injury prone most of his career and the Astros did not expect to get this much out of him. I suspect they might make him a qualifying offer. Pay him 18 million but only for one season. Lots of teams are desperate for starting pitching and he would likely receive multi year offers similar to what Scott Kazmir received after leaving the Astros. Marwin has Boras as an agent. Unless Marwin has a strong desire to stay in Houston he could be difficult to keep. I would guess he will get a contract in the 3-4 year range for 8-11 million a season. I would not be surprised if McHugh is traded. His value should be pretty good with the season he had this year and his arbitration number will be creeping towards 7-8 million. I expect Peacock to still be on the team next year since they control him for 2 more seasons and he could be a fall back if the young starters (Framber, James, Whitley) struggle or fail to make the team. Keuchel has Boras as an agent and I expect them to look for a deal similar to Arrieta with 50 plus million guaranteed in the first 2 seasons with an opt out clause and team options with escalators. I think Astros offer a qualifying offer and say goodbye. Catcher- Astros probably kick the tires on Realmuto, Ramos, etc. I suspect the fall back would be Maldonado/Stassi. If McCann resigns it will probably be Verlander's doing. If possible I would like to see Verlander and Pressly get extensions. Maybe 2 years 55-60 million for Verlander with a 3rd year option for 25 million. Then Pressly is under arbitration but he only made 1.6 million this season so his arbitration number should be low. He might jump at a 3 year 18-21 million dollar deal. They probably decline the option on Will Harris Joe Smith isn't going anywhere next year. LF will be interesting. What they do might depend on Marwin. If they can resign him he will be the fall back for Tucker and maybe White at DH if he struggles. If not, they will probably bring in a veteran outfielder that can be a DH like McCutchen, Adam Jones,etc.
Crawfish Boxes is discussing Marwin's value ... https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2018/...tros-offer-marwin-gonzalez-a-qualifying-offer
I knew it wasn’t an option on springer- sloppy phrasing. My point was I’d offer to tack on an extra 3-75 to the end of Springers walk years whereas I’d offer Bregman a straight up 10/200 tearing up his pre arbitration and arbitration years. I don’t give a **** about exactly how Altuve contract is structured my point was big picture which is he’s making me or less 30 a year when looked at holistically. The point in talk long about the extensions and how I’d approach the offseason is not to get the exact dollars exact for 2019 but rather lay out the type of plan it would take to get 3 of the core 4 locked up for their entire primes, while fielding a WS contender and keeping the window open into the mid 2020’s.
My sense is that Tucker isn’t going to get his service time monkeyed with by the FO. If they were going to they wouldn’t have called him up to ride the pine in late July after he **** the bed in his audition nor made him a September call up. It would have been a lot easier to fade that service time if he didn’t get the second and third call up for no good baseball reason. That said you are a savage and I’d do the same and let him start in the minors and stay down there for the extra year of control until, my guess would be June 1 or so.
Here is my thoughts on this and it sounds funny but I believe it's the best route. QO Dallas Keuchal but make it low enough for Boras to say f that let's get that money. QO Marwin Gonzalez but at 8.5m on a three yr contract but team options on yr two 10.5 yr three 12.5 KEEP McHugh as the 4th starter move Keep Machete 2yrdeal 5.5per team option on a third year. Harris, McCann, Gattis, Sipp, Stassi all can walk away. Look into a true DH. Cruz would be nice but not at the price tag he is currently at. 10m per with team options if it's more then one yr. But what I would really look at as is Four things . 1. Make a run at Patrick Corbin... Or Jacob Degrom. 2. Make a run at Realmuto. 3. Look for that RF move Reddick to LF. LF would would be better for Reddick for the final couple years he has. You could look for a way to improve A.J.Polluck is a name to look at. 4. See if you can find a trade partner for Yuli Gurriel let Tyler White play full time.
If Realmuto gets traded to another team or if the cost is high, any interest in Yasmani Grandal? Or will he cost too much? If Kershaw opts out, would you consider going after him or with his asking price, not worth it? If Morton retires and goes back East, I wouldn't mind JA Happ as a replacement.
*C McCann or Maldonado (1yr/12 mil) C Stassi 1B Yuli 2B Altuve 3B Bregman SS Correa IF White (Primary DH) *IF/LF Marwin (2yrs 25 mil) CF Springer RF Reddick LF Tucker or Straw OF Marisnick OF Kemp No need to make a deal before next years deadline. See how LF, DH, etc pan out or not. So long Gattis.... SP Verlander (extend) SP Cole (extend) *SP Morton (2yrs 25 mil) SP McCullers SP Whitley or James or Valdez or ? Trade McHugh for the best haul of prospects on the table. Would consider selling high on McCullers too if enough starters impress during ST RP Osuna RP Rondon RP Pressly RP Devenski RP Smith RP Peacock RP James or Valdez or C Perez, etc
I dont think McCullers goes any where I think Reliver from here on out. McHugh needs to stay Peacock needs to go. If a good offer comes up. I.E. if we could ship McCullers as a part of a package for let's say DeGrom or Realmuto. That's the only way he goes
