Winning with subtle adjustments

The line between winning and losing in this series is razor thin. I still don't think the league and refs will allow the Rockets to advance. But in this battle, the Rockets are superior in two critical ways: toughness and intelligence. The toughness angle has been covered. Our five of Harden, CP, Rivers, Gordon and Tucker are relentlessly tough minded and physical on both offense and defense, getting into KD's legs, bodying up on Curry, forcing Curry to defend Harden and Gordon.

The intelligence superiority is showing up and will be critical if we have any hope of beating the Worriers, league and refs. So far, the Rockets have made several adjustments that are really about basketball IQ:

- Harden isn't hurling himself into the lane hoping for the call he won't get, which in the past has resulted in turnovers or bad shots and a fast break the other way. The enormity of this change cannot be overstated. In the past, these were huge momentum shifts. This is being minimized.

- Harden is using slower, less sudden force, to create space with multiple starts and stops, and get his shot off in the lane. This is seen in the floater. More recent development is where he drives into Dray's help defense with the intention of bumping Dray off, not trying to make the shot or draw a foul, but rather putting the ball on the glass and getting the putback. He has done this multiple times and it's intentional. With Dray bumped to the baseline, there is no big to stop Harden's put back.

- CP clearly does not have confidence he can get off his shot in the lane, so he is focused on driving and kicking. I think he needs to be more aggressive in seeking his mid range and getting up more threes. But I think the intent is to avoid getting stuffed in the lane, like Harden is no longer barreling into the lane hoping for a call.

- CP is playing his mind games. He is looking to get under KD's skin and is picking on him like a bully. CP is fundamentally tougher than KD and anything he can do to wear him down and create a distraction is good.

- Gordon has taken over CP's role as the second scorer/playmaker. This also appears totally by design due to a combination of CP not getting his shot off, and Gordon being able to abuse Curry.

We all know what's coming in Game 5: the Warriors get away with riding harden on drives, getting into his landing spot, and the refs won't blow the whistle. We can't be idealistic about this and I guarantee you the Rockets know this is coming. So what do we do?

- I would love to see public messaging in advance of Game 5 from the Rockets, as well as messaging behind the scenes to the League. You know there is more analytical data Morey has that he has not weaponized through a media leak. He needs to make it clear that there will be another leak if the whistles change.

- Know that certain types of fouls will be called and others wont: Harden won't get calls in the lane, so continue to play slow and physical. Pump fakes to get defenders in the air and land on you - that is more likely to get called b/c it's more obvious, and not a "judgment call" like landing zone calls. Gordon did this to Curry in Game 4.

- I'm not sure about this next point, but maybe we make the game chippy. CP has "star" status in the league,
isn't a candidate to get in foul trouble. Have him play physically against KD on a switch, get double technical going, and force the refs to call fouls closely. We want the rules to be enforced.

- Tucker is going to be targeted for foul calls. Worriers know he is a huge problem. Tucker must finish the first half with 2 fouls. Let Rivers and CP guard KD at times in the first half.
What else do you guys have?

[I wish I believed that the League would not fix Game 5, but we've seen too much crap to think it won't happen. If the Rockets somehow pull this off, it will be the greatest 5 on 8 victory in the history of the NBA].