Re:Ibaka and Sefolosha, managing decent efficiency on almost non-existent volume (and always assisted) does not point to "fine" offense. Asik, Patterson, Parsons, and Morris are all above league average TS%. If Westbrook had Ibaka's usage rate and Ast'd%, he would have a much higher TS% than .55... And if Westbrook couldn't break down the defense, the Thunder's offense last year would have been even worse. This is the problem with the Rockets. You have one player who can put some pressure on the defense and pretty much 4 non-factors. A solid stretch 4 would improve our offense, which is probably why McHale - as bad as he is - actually has a stretch 4 on the floor half the time (Morris or Parsons). Of course, as we've seen, a mediocre stretch 4 isn't enough to make up for 3 other players who are mediocre or worse on offense, especially when accounting for the slippage on defense that comes from playing small.
At this point our offense is predicated on getting stops on defense and rebounding. We've let bad offensive teams like the Pacers and Boston score over 100 points on us during this streak. It's been terrible and players need to be held accountable for their defense as that is what wins ball games more often than not.
For me, principal reasons were fatigue and limited skillsets compounded by lack of offensive sets. Harden struggled in scoring because defenses were keying on him, and everyone's confidence plunged. When we're missing the 3, what are we going to do? We do more iso's. We also hang on to the ball because we keep turning it over. More iso's. As to the PnRs, it's pretty discouraging to pass to Asik and Smith when they turn it over or miss at the rim. Opponents clogging the lane also take away the roll or the drive. Last night, when we were defending well, we kept pace with DEN. WHen Asik had to rest, they took off on us. Wilson Chandler went off on us. We have to work on our defense.
Thanks Torocan, always enjoy your analysis. However, looks like the differential win/loss average of 2.77% in ISO does not go with what I feel, so I decided to look at the number distribution and kind of re-present the same data in a different way, Here you can see by the distribution of these set of games, ISO play in lose streak increased, with such scattered number, I used median instead of mean (average), which is a better representation of the numbers, and we can see the ISO play actually almost doubled in losing games compare to those 5 winning games. Associated with this, I wouldn't be surprise our assist per game would go down since we had more ISO plays there. I'm not sure whether there is data on who runs those ISO play in each game, as I'm wondering whether that changed also. When Lin has more PG duty, I do noticed that he not only pass to people who are open, he also pass to player who has a mismatch, and let them go ISO, I saw that kind of play to Asik, and PPAT, also to Harden when their defender switch and Harden is facing a shorter opponent PG). But, when Harden run PG, he usually just distribute to open person but I don't think he think that fast yet to pass to player has mismatch yet. Maybe the sample size is too small or the difference is too small to be seen, that's just my feeling there. Another thing I'd like to raise is that for Harden to run PG, there are some subtle differences there which could have effect not that easy to be picked up using stats. Like Jeremy mentioned, as a PG, his role is to get his teammates going, so he will distribute to people when they are open, even they just missed a shot, just to keep them hot. I've seen that he would pass to MM for a 3, MM missed, but he will pass to him again when he is open, and he will get it in. Same could be seen Jeremy continuously feeding Asik. Harden is a good play maker and have good skills, but I don't think he has PG mentality, he will pass to people he think will have good chance to score only. So if someone missed some shot, he will stop passing to that person. And if that person has less % to score than he do it himself, he will do it himself. For a specific game, not sure which way is more effective as Jeremy's way you do have a risk of wasting possessions, but he will try to bring player into good stage, and help them to go out of slump. With Harden's way, player need to struggle themselves out of slump, they'll need to find a way to adjust themselves. But as a young team, I do think Harden's way will backfire in a long term, and it will be in a negative feedback cycle, as player will be in slump longer, and when more people stuck there, Harden would have to try to do it himself more, and when Harden run more ISO, that will push his teammate in even longer slump.... so, basically I just hope we will let our PG play PG, and our SG play SG..... Harden as great as he is, he is not a PG
#s are facts but meaningless until ppl explain them. unfortunately, anytime when a human is involved, bias or mistakes can not be avoided. in this case (ISO), not because players suddenly like to play ISO or coaches want players to do ISO. it is because other teams learn what made rox so dangerous, transition offense. other teams figured out how to stop rox transition offense. w/o butter and bread, we lost and don't know what to do. ISO is the easy way and instinct reaction from a player, especially a star player. who doesn't know how to play ISO? probably zero. all star players knows how to do ISO.
This is my feeling too. I like the stats, but it doesn't do anything to prove that tired legs is what's slowing us down or even that it's the offensive mix at all. It could be that we have fewer transition points because teams are doing a better job of playing defense. And, it could be we're losing because our defense has slackened and offense isn't really a big problem.
I think a factor playing a substantial part in our recent struggles is basically we have been scouted thoroughly, and our offense has been figured out. Opponents, Harden in particular, probably know which way he is likely to go, which pass he will make, and thus the defense reaches into his passing lanes and brings over guys to clog his penetrations. No wonder his turnovers are up and his effectiveness down. Other teams are daring our other players to beat them, and so far they cant.
Great job with the Rockets' stats. It would be nice too if you could provide the stats for the opposing team and show what they did so that we could have a more complete picture of the analysis. It is one thing to look at the Rockets and also another to see what and how the other teams did in order to understand the stats better. Sometimes, looking at the stats only from one perspective skews the whole context. It would be nice also if you could get in the head of Morey and find out why his stats always lead to a fetish for signing up undersized pf's, and why non of them has panned out, so far. I hope to read more of your posts, they are enlightening.
I'll add some more numbers anc theories to your stats. 1) Second or third time facing some teams so they've got a scouting report and we're not adjusting well. 2) Hero ball combined with shooting slump by Harden. He's playing 2.5 more mpg during the losing streak vs the 15 games before(12-3). FG% down 11%, 3P% down 16% from 38% to 22%. Shooting almost 2 more 3PA per game. 5.8 fewer ppg and 2.3 more tov per game. 3) Lin playing .5 minutes less per game. FG% down by 13%. PPG down by 3.3 ast down by 2.1 per game. Tov down by 1.5. Taking 1 more FT per game. 4) Asik is playing 2 more mpg, but is getting almost 3 fewer defensive rebounds. Offensive rebounds up, but net -.9 total rebounds. Tov up 1.5 per game. Smith playing 1 less minute but averaging 3.2 less ppg. FG% down 15%. 5) Morris and Patterson are playing a combined 8.7 mpg less and 9 ppg less. They taking 3 less FGA per game. Morris FG% is down 7%. Patterson FG% is down 23% to 34% from 57%. Combined total rebounds down by 1.4 6) Defino is playing 2.3 more mpg, but only scoring 1.9 more ppg. FG% down 5%, 3P% down 9%. Total rebounds down 1.2 per game. 7) Douglas playing 9 less mpg and scoring 5 less ppg. His minutes went to Beverley and some additional minutes probably came from Morris & Patterson with small ball. 8) Parsons is playing 1 more mpg and scoring 1.8 more ppg. Defensive rebounds down by 1.1 and .8 total. His FG% is about the same and 3P% is up 11%. I didn't look @ opponent fg% or offensive rebound totals during losing streak, but our defensive rebound total is down. If opponent is shooting higher % then there are fewer rebounds to be had, but also it could mean smaller lineup means fewer guys boxing out. I haven't looked and player combinations on the floor but I have a gut feeling that we're being hurt on D when we play small. Delfino can poke the ball away on D, but I'm not sure he has the foot speed for transition D. Parsons just doesn't seem to get enough rebounds when playing PF.
Good thread! I think shot percentages (including FT's) and shot location (less paint scoring?) were also a huge factor. Synergy must owe you some mula for half their traffic
Does synergy show fast break points per game? All I can find is this http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/fastbreak-points-per-game Wondering if it has significantly dropped as well
think the stats above may back me up but here's my thoughts from watching all the games Slower Pace, combo of legs and teams getting back, they know not to let the rocks going early Close to non existent half court sets, compounded by very little ball or player movement feels like lots more iso (Rudy would be proud this almost francis isomotion) confidence is shot for me this is best reflected by the individual decision by players when the have the ball around shooting, driving, passing, earlier in the season this decision was much quicker and just generally a better read, ie lots more parsons shooting when he should pass or when the D is right up on him not driving two below average level PFs don't help either, Morris' 3s were nice and all when he was hot but they just covered up that he is a tweener, too slow to be a 3 and doesn't have the offensive game to be 4.... and pat pat, nice guy, serviceable as a 4th big on a team, but not the answer.... both of them are dreadful on D... really think is time for T-Jo to get some big minutes and find out how much help he can be, he would also help them get some transition back the slower pace and lack of ball movement has not helped Jeremy be able to attack the basket hard off the dribble, don't care about the jumper talk, just want at least a dozen to 15 hard drives by Lin to the basket a game, even if he turns it over with his jumping in the air passing don't care, ball movement and lin attack harden is hatching it more, love the guy and his game, but his reading what the D is giving him has dropped off somewhat, not helped by the lack of player movement off the ball.... cut for fricks sake.....seems more drive and draw foul or contested 3, needs to mix in some more midrange, and my biggest annoyance, he's fast turning in a Kevin Martin on roids with his trying to draw fouls over trying to make a shot, just shoot it, they'll go and you'll get the and 1 aswell, fast expecting a Rivaldo like reaction tobeing hit soon, ie grab the face after a foul nowhere near his face, just play you are that good James.....
Fatigue. They had a short workout yesterday according to Friedman, so we may rest a little better to win over NO tonight.
Lin has some comments on what has been different: http://www.nba.com/rockets/video/jeremy-lin-01242013 McHale: http://www.nba.com/rockets/video/kevin-mchale-01242013 Both persons acknowledge the effect of fatigue, the wall, on a young team. Seems spacing is a big issue along with Harden learning more and more what it means to be the best player on a team (balance). I think it was a great thing for the coaches to do a positive film session, showing the players what it looks like when the play well. One thing about this I can say is that I cringe when I see Delfino, Douglas, and Morris trying to be playmakers, taking a dozen dribbles. I find myself saying out loud, "Know your role. Know your limitations."
Isn't that at least a failure of the coach in providing the players with well-defined roles? Alternatively, it could be the failure of the coach in constructing a system which requires 2ndary players such as Douglas/Delfino to try to "create." I'm not inclined to blame everything on McHale or coaching, but I am a firm believer that good teams have success by giving role players well-defined/limited roles (see: Bonner and Splitter with Spurs).
